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外贸形势严峻 8月出口或再现负增长--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-09-07

  外需持续疲软使得当前的进出口压力倍增。记者日前从权威渠道获悉,在对沿海地区摸底调研之后,国家相关部门正在酝酿新一轮维稳外贸增长的政策,新政将涵盖质检、通关、信贷、保险等多个方面,个别行业的出口退税率或将调高,新政最快有望在本月出台。

Overseas market demand remains weak makes the current import and export pressure multiplier.Reporter recently learned from the authority channels,In the coastal areas after baseline survey,The relevant state departments are brewing a new round of dimensional stability of foreign trade growth policy,The New Deal will include quality control/Customs clearance/credit/Insurance, etc,Individual industry the export tax rebate rate or will be raised,That is expected to happen in the New Deal on this month.

  下周一,海关总署将发布8月份进出口数据,业内预计,8月数据仍难乐观,出口或再现负增长。中国社会科学院特聘顾问王洛林日前在《经济参考报》与厦门大学宏观经济研究中心举办的宏观经济论坛上指出,8月的出口数据不会乐观,今年出口增长10%左右很难,出口的下滑恐怕不是一个短期的趋势,这和国际经济形势有很大关系。

Next Monday,The customs general administration will issue the import and export data in August,The industry is expected to,August data is still difficult to optimistic,Export or reproduction negative growth.The Chinese academy of social sciences WangLuoLin has special adviser in[Economic reference to]Xiamen university and macro economic research center held macroeconomic BBS points out,August export data will not be optimistic,This year it is difficult to export growth around 10%,Export decline I'm afraid is not a short-term trend,This and the international economic situation has a lot to do.

  社科院世界经济与政治研究所国际贸易研究室主任宋泓对《经济参考报》记者表示,他们刚刚结束对广东等沿海地区的调研,发现沿海出口企业压力有增无减,沿海地区外贸形势不乐观。“现在看来,8月份乃至今后几个月的外贸形势都将持续严峻,维稳外贸增长的政策有加码的必要。”他说。

Cass institute of world economics and politics at the international trade research director SongHong to[Economic reference to]reporters,They have just end in guangdong province and other coastal areas of the research,Found in coastal export enterprise pressure unabated,Coastal area foreign trade situation is not optimistic."Now it seems,August and even in the months of foreign trade situation will be sustained severe,Dimensional stability of foreign trade growth policies are the necessary pyramid."He said.

  多家机构对8月进出口的预期悲观。中金公司首席经济学家彭文生预测8月出口增速同比下降1%,进口增长2%。交通银行金融研究中心首席经济学家连平预计8月出口和进口的增速分别为-1.9%和0.3%。还有一些机构预计8月出口有可能比7月微增,但仍处于低位。

Many agencies to August import and export expected pessimistic.Cicc's chief economist PengWenSheng prediction August export growth fell 1% year-on-year,Imports rose 2%.Bank of communications financial research center chief economist even flat August is expected to export and import growth rates were 1.9% and 0.3%.Some agencies are expected to August export likely July than mild increase,But it is still in a low level.

  “今年单月进出口数据一直波动很大,5、6月出现了反弹,7月又重回历史低点,因此8月的数据就成为研判全年外贸走势的一个重要窗口,同时也是政策是否加码的重要观察节点。”一位业内人士说。

"Monthly performance this year import and export data has been fluctuating,5/June appeared to rebound,July and return to historic lows,So August data will become judge the trend of foreign trade an important window,At the same time is also important to observe whether policy lotto node."A personage inside course of study says.



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