2012年8月，我国进出口总值3292.86亿美元，同比略增0.2%。其中出口1779.73亿美元，同比增长2.7%；进口1513.13亿美元，同比下降2.6%；贸易顺差266.61亿美元。

In August 2012,China import and export (GDP) of us $329.286 billion,Slightly increased 0.2% year-on-year.The export of $177.973 billion,Year-on-year growth of 2.7%;Imported 151.313 billion us dollars,2.6% year-on-year drop;The trade surplus of $26.661 billion.

　　8月份出口同比增速相比上月略有回升的主要原因：一是去年8月出口规模较7月份略有下降，而今年8月出口规模较7月略有上升，使得8月同比增速较7月小幅回升1.7个百分点。二是前期一系列稳出口政策初见成效，已实施两个月的出口退税新政一定程度上解决了部分出口企业的资金困境，退税相关审批期的缩短或取消加快了企业出口速度。三是外部经济复苏乏力使得我国出口增速回升幅度仍然较低。美国8月ISM制造业PMI仅为49.6，连续三个月处于临界值以下；日本二季度GDP年率终值下调至0.7%，较前值降低0.7个百分点，低于市场预期；欧元区二季度GDP环比萎缩0.2%，经济接近衰退，德国内需订单也显现疲弱。

August exports year-on-year growth last month slightly rebounded compared to the main reason:One is the last August export volume is a slight decrease in July,But August export volume is July increased slightly,Make August year-on-year growth is July small picks up 1.7%.The second is a series of stable export policies produced results,Has conducted two months of export tax rebate New Deal to a certain extent, has solved the partial export enterprise fund predicament,The examination and approval of the relevant tax refund period shorten or cancel to speed up the enterprise outlet velocity.The third is the external economic recovery fatigue makes our export growth picks up amplitude is still lower.The United States on August ISM manufacturing PMI was only 49.6,For three months in a row in the critical value;Japan's second quarter GDP annual rate final value down to 0.7%,The previous value reduced by 0.7%,Below market expectations;In the second quarter of the eurozone GDP link atrophy 0.2%,Economic close to recession,Germany domestic demand order also revealed the weak.

　　8月份进口同比重现下降的主要原因：一是去年8月进口规模较7月有较大回升，而今年8月进口规模较上月略有回落，进口同比显现下降，是今年以来的第二次负增长。二是7、8月份国内经济状况不及市场预期，8月份固定资产投资累计同比回落0.2个百分点，规模以上工业增加值实际增速回落0.3个百分点，尽管近期项目审批继续加速但短期实际效果不太明显，制造业疲弱使得国内进口需求仍面临阻力。三是铁矿石等国际大宗商品进口价格有不同程度降幅。

August imports up the main reason for decline in return:One is the last August import volume is July have larger rebound,But August import volume is slightly dropped last month,Import year-on-year decline appeared,This year is the second negative growth.The second is 7/In August the domestic economic situation than market expectations,In August the fixed assets investment accumulated a drop of 0.2% year-on-year,Above designated size industrial added value growth of actual dropped 0.3%,Despite recent project examination and approval continue to speed up but short-term actual effect is not obvious,Manufacturing the weak makes domestic import demand still face resistance.The third is iron ore and other international commodity import prices have different levels drop.

　　8月份出口规模略升、进口规模微降使得8月贸易顺差略有回升至266.6亿美元，较7月扩大约15亿美元。

In August the export scale slightly up/Import scale edge down make August trade surplus slightly rebounded to $26.66 billion,A July expand about $1.5 billion.

　　未来一段时间国际经济可能将持续低迷，我国出口环境不容乐观。一是美国经济复苏动力较弱，市场信心不足。8月份美国新增就业人数9.6万人明显低于7月份的14.1万人，且低于市场预期，ISM制造业PMI连续三个月低于50的荣枯分界线；未来如无较大规模的刺激政策出台，美国复苏将维持低增速状态。二是由于欧债问题在短期内无法解决，欧元区经济恢复阻力重重。继标普再度将希腊评级展望降至负面后，穆迪表示希腊贷款重组建议将对银行业评级产生负面影响，西班牙和意大利求援压力增大，德、法两个核心国家制造业与综合PMI出现持续滑落，内需出口出现疲弱。三是日本经济显现回调压力。日本二季度GDP修正值下调0.7个百分点，7月份景气动向同步指数较上月继续回落，其中10个指标中9个指标恶化，内需出现阴影。欧美经济复苏不佳导致国际贸易状况进一步恶化，8月末波罗的海干散货指数持续回落至700点左右，较7月末大幅下降近200点。

The next period of time the international economic downturn may will continue,Our export environment is not optimistic.One is the American economic recovery power is weak,Poor market confidence.In August the new employment 96000 people obviously lower than in July 141000,And below market expectations,ISM manufacturing PMI three consecutive months less than 50 vicissitude demarcation line;If there is no future large-scale stimulus policies,The United States recovery will remain low growth state.The second is due to the debt problems cannot be solved in a short time,The eurozone economic recovery of all obstacles.The s&p will again Greek rating outlook to negative drop after,Moody's said Greek loan restructuring proposal would have a negative impact on the banking industry rating,Spain and Italy for help pressure increases,DE/Method two core national manufacturing and comprehensive PMI sustained slide,Domestic demand appears weak exports.The third is the Japanese economy appear callback pressure.Japan's second quarter GDP modifier by 0.7%,July boom trend synchronous index was down last month to continue,The 10 index 9 indexes deterioration,Domestic demand in the shadow.Europe and the United States economic recovery is not good lead to international trade deteriorated further,Late August the Baltic dry bulk index sustained fall to about 700 points,A late July plunged nearly 200 points.

　　预计2012年9月出口同比可能趋稳略升。一是历史数据显示下半年出口状况好于上半年，加之国内稳出口政策短期内将发力，而去年9月份出口规模较8月份有所回落，预计9月出口同比可能略升。二是全球经济复苏前景不确定性较大，出口同比回升幅度有限。三是国内劳动力成本仍趋上行，最低工资标准不断提升，出口竞争力趋弱；而中国与其他国家的贸易争端也在增多，年内出口状况仍不容乐观。

Is expected in September 2012 year-on-year exports may be stabilised slightly up.One is the historical data shows that in the second half of the export situation better than the first half,Together with the domestic steady export policies in the short term will send force,And last September export volume is somewhat fall after a rise in August,September is expected to rise year-on-year exports may be slightly.The second is global economic recovery prospects greater uncertainty,Year-on-year exports rebound amplitude limited.Three is the domestic labor cost is still to ascending,Minimum wage standard rising,Export competitiveness weakness.the;And China and other countries in trade dispute also increased,Years export situation is still not optimistic.

　　预计2012年9月进口同比可能低位徘徊。一是去年9月进口规模已达1550亿美元以上，而8月份进口规模偏弱，预计9月同比增速难有大幅回升。二是未来国际大宗商品价格可能趋稳，CRB期货指数与现货指数之间的价差企稳于80点左右，国内进口商品价格短期内可能不会有较大幅度上升。三是三季度国内经济增速可能仍处较低水平，经济明显回升的可能性不大，进口需求仍受抑制。

In September 2012 is expected to import up may be low wandering.One is the last September import scale has reached more than $155 billion,In August and import scale weak,On September year-on-year growth is expected to have a significant rebound.The second is the future international commodity prices may be stabilised,CRB index futures and spot index difference between stabilises in about 80 points,Domestic import commodity prices in the short term may not have a substantially increased.The third is the third quarter domestic economic growth may still at a low level,The economy rebounded unlikely,Import demand still inhibition.

　　综合进出口两方面看，预计2012年9月贸易顺差可能继续有所扩大。前八个月进出口运行状况表明进口增速较低，未来这一走势可能将延续，而出口状况可能稍有改善，顺差规模可能略有扩大。

Comprehensive import and export two aspects to see,Is expected in September 2012 trade surplus may continue to have somewhat expanded.The first eight months of import and export operation conditions show that imports low,In the future the trend may will continue,And export status may be a slight improvement,Surplus size may be slightly expanded.

　　（交行金研中心研究员 王宇雯）

(In the research fellow of the center for the gold WangYuWen)