一场页岩气革命能否改变全球原油供应格局，谁也说不清。但它足以让不少能源投资者为之痴狂。

A shale gas revolution could be changes in the pattern of supply of crude oil,Who can tell.But it is enough to make a lot of energy for investors crazy.

　　笔者手中的一份数据颇令人兴奋：2010年，美国天然气约为21.65万亿立方英尺，其中页岩气产量为4.87万亿立方英尺，约占天然气供应量23%。当年，美国对中东地区石油依赖只有8000万吨，占比降至18.5%。

The author in the hands of a data quite exciting:In 2010,,The natural gas is about 21.65 trillion cubic feet,The shale gas output for 4.87 trillion cubic feet,Accounts for about 23% of the natural gas supply.the,The United States in the Middle East oil dependency only 80 million tons,Of gradient to 18.5%.

　　正是页岩气产量的高比重，让美国对中东石油的需求量直线下降。因为替代8000万吨原油的页岩气产量是1000亿立方米，但对美国拥有技术可开采的49.38 万亿天然气储量而言，是九牛一毛。

It is shale gas yield high specific gravity,Let the United States for the Middle East oil demand plummeted.Because alternative 80 million tons of crude oil shale gas production is 100 billion cubic meters,But the United States has a technology minable 49.38 Trillions in natural gas reserves,Is a drop in the bucket.

　　“未来3-5年，美国将从原油进口国变成天然气等能源出口国。”多这句话绝不是耸人听闻，而是有越来越的投资方“确信”这个奇迹正在兑现。

"The future 3 to 5 years,The United States will from crude oil importers into natural gas energy exporter."Many this sentence is not sensational,But there are more and more investors"sure"The miracle is cash.

　　部分对冲基金经理甚至将近期美国能源信息署(EIA)考虑出售6000万桶战略原油储备，与这场轰轰烈烈的页岩气革命“直接挂钩”。

Part of the hedge fund manager will even recently the United States energy information administration(EIA)Considering selling 60 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserve,And the magnificent and victorious shale gas revolution"Directly link".

　　而目前页岩气的一大竞争优势，是价格几乎仅有原油的50%-60%。

And at present shale gas a big competitive advantage,The price of crude oil is almost the only 50% - 60%.

　　在全球经济复苏低迷的情况下，靠沙特阿拉伯等产油国增加原油供应，足以弥补伊朗被禁止出口原油的供应缺口。但EIA如此多此一举，急急抛售原油战略储备，不排除就是预防页岩气革命对美国原油需求量大降的冲击波。

In the global economic recovery under the condition of the downturn,By Saudi Arabia and so on oil producing countries to increase oil supply,Enough to make up for Iran banned export crude oil supply gap.But EIA so carry coals to Newcastle,Nasty selling crude oil strategic reserve,Would not rule out is to prevent shale gas revolution on the crude oil demand big drop of shock wave.

　　尽管很多人还不知道“页岩气”的真实定义，仅仅以为页岩气就是在地层里，以游离状态存在页岩层的非常规天然气资源。其实它的开采难度相当高，只是近年石油与天然气价格飙升，加之页岩气开采技术取得重大突破(降低开采成本与难度)，最终引爆页岩气革命。

Although a lot of people do not yet know"Shale gas"True definition,Just think shale gas is in the formation,In the free state existence page strata of unconventional gas resources.In fact its mining difficulty quite high,But in recent years, oil and natural gas prices,Together with shale gas mining technology made great breakthrough(Reduce the mining cost and difficulty),Final detonation shale gas revolution.

　　至于NYMEX原油期货市场何时“应战”页岩气革命，目前众对冲基金分歧严重。

As for the NYMEX crude oil futures market when"battle"Shale gas revolution,At present the hedge funds serious differences.

　　有观点认为，美国能源供应自给自足，是对原油需求的巨大利空。但这是数年后的投资故事。当前对冲基金最关心的，是美联储何时推出QE3，这才是原油期货价格上涨的利好。

With a view,The United States energy supply self-sufficiency,For crude oil demand is huge bad.But this is a few years investment story.The current hedge funds the most concern,When the fed is introduced QE3,This is the crude oil futures prices in bullish.

　　但是，一些有心的对冲基金已经开始每周搜集分析美国页岩气开采量、原油库存及进口量的最新数据，找出美国原油能源供应自给自足的“临界点”，随即将大部分基金资产押注NYMEX原油期货。

but,Some cored hedge funds have began weekly collecting and analyzing the American shale gas recovery/Crude oil inventory and imports the latest data,Find us crude oil energy supply self-sufficient"Critical point",Then most of the fund's assets bet NYMEX crude oil futures.

　　因为美国对冲基金界流传多年的一项成功投资诀窍：第一个敢吃螃蟹的机构才能获得最高收益。

Because the U.S. hedge funds boundary spread years of a successful investment know-how:The first to eat crab institutions to obtain the highest income.

　　而在中国大地，一场页岩气投资潮同样迅速火热。本周中国发起第二轮页岩气探矿权招标，推出20个区块，总面积高达20002平方公里。可以想象，当全球两大能源需求大国都决心用页岩气降低自身对石油能源的依赖度时，全球原油期货市场将如何应对潜在的原油过剩格局。 

In China the earth,A shale gas investment tide also rapid hot.This week China has launched the second round of shale gas exploration right bidding,Out of 20 blocks,As much as a total area of 20002 square kilometers.Can imagine,When the two big energy demand powers are all determined to use shale gas to reduce their dependence on oil energy when,Global crude oil futures market will be how to deal with potential crude excess pattern.