我国近日发布首个国内贸易发展规划，这对扩大内需、促进改革经济转型升级有着重大的现实指导意义。专家表示，在当前世界经济复苏乏力，出口和投资增长放缓之际，扩大内需无疑是我国经济结构调整的第一要务，将成为提高经济内循环能力的根本途径，变成长期支持经济快速增长的主要动力。

China recently issued the first domestic trade development planning,This to expand domestic demand/To promote the transformation and upgrading of economic reform has important directive significance.Experts say,In the current world economic recovery lack of power,Export and investment growth is slowing,Expanding domestic demand is undoubtedly China's economic structure adjustment first priority,Will be improve economic internal circulation ability of the basic way,Become long-term support economic rapid increase of the main power.

　　内需促增长潜力巨大

Domestic demand to promote growth potential is tremendous

　　近10年来，我国消费增长十分迅猛，内需特别是消费需求已经成为拉动经济增长的重要动力。统计数据显示，2002年我国社会消费品零售总额为4.8万亿元，2008年突破10万亿元，2010突破15万亿元大关，2011年达到18.4万亿元，居世界第二位，是2002年的3.8倍，年均增长16.1%。2011年最终消费对经济的贡献率达51.6%，比2002年提高7.7个百分点。

Nearly 10 years,Consumption growth in our country is very rapid,Domestic demand, especially consumer demand has become the important power to stimulate economic growth.Statistics show,In 2002, social total retail sales of consumer goods for 4.8 trillion yuan,In 2008 exceeded 10 trillion yuan,2010 exceeding RMB 15 trillion,2011 reach 18.4 trillion yuan,Ranking second in the world,Is 3.8 times that of 2002,The average annual growth of 16.1%.2011 final consumption to economic contribution rate reaches 51.6%,More than 2002 increased by 7.7%.

　　“扩大内需将成为未来中国经济发展的关键。”中国社会科学院金融研究所研究员易宪容表示，就目前中国的经济情况来看，中国的内需与美国相比相差较远。美国3亿多人口，年消费达到11万亿美元，而中国只有4万亿美元。中国人均消费不足美国1/15。也就是说，如果中国内需增加到美国人均水平的1/10，中国GDP总量上升到80万亿元以上，潜力巨大。此外，中国居民消费存在严重三大不平衡：城乡之间、中小城市与大城市之间、东部沿海与中西部地区之间差距很大。因此，对于欧美疲弱的需求来说，中国潜在需求是巨大的，

"To expand domestic demand will be the key to China's future economic development."The Chinese academy of social sciences researcher at the institute of finance YiXianRong said,The China's economic situation,China's domestic demand and the United States are far compared.More than 300 million American population,Years spending $11 trillion,While China only $4 trillion.China's per capita consuming 1/15 the United States.That is,If the Chinese domestic demand increase to the average American levels of 1/10,China's GDP rose to 80 trillion yuan of above,Huge potential.In addition,China's consumer exist serious three great imbalance:Between urban and rural areas/Small and medium-sized cities and city between/The eastern coastal and its central and western areas of difference between.therefore,For Europe and the United States for weak demand,China's potential demand is huge,

　　中国银行首席经济学家曹远征认为，如果未来中国经济增长10年内是7%到8%的话，那么就意味着10年内中国居民收入翻一番。这将造就非常庞大的消费市场，对世界经济再平衡，对中国经济发展，都至关重要。 

The bank of China, chief economist CaoYuanZheng think,If the future of China's economic growth 10 years is 7% to 8% words,That means that 10 years double income in China.This will create a huge consumer market,To the world economy balance again,To China's economic development,Is crucial. 

　　不能把宝押在外部市场

Can't bet on external markets

　　过去30年，出口、投资和消费这三驾马车驱动中国经济高速发展。然而，随着国际经济环境发生重大变化，过度依赖出口的经济增长方式已经难以为继，提升内需在经济增长中的比重，弥补外需的不足，已成为当前我国转变经济增长方式的重要内容。

Over the past 30 years,export/Investment and consumption this troika drive China's rapid economic development.however,Along with the international economic environment has greatly changed,The export of excessive dependence on the pattern of economic growth has been difficult,Improve the proportion of domestic demand in economic growth,Make up for the deficiency of the overseas market demand,Has become the current our country transform the way of economic growth important content.

　　国务院参事室特约研究员姚景源表示，1997年亚洲金融危机后，我们认识到中国这么一个大的经济体，经济的增长点不可能放到外部需求上去，所以我们要不断地减少对出口的依赖，提出一个战略思想，就是扩大内需。科学发展观的核心内容就是转变经济增长方式，调整和优化经济结构，减少对外部的依赖，把经济的立足点放到扩大内需上。

The state council advisory office special researcher YaoJingYuan said,1997 years after the Asian financial crisis,We recognize that China's such a big economies,Economic growth may not in external demand up,So we need to continually reduce reliance on exports,Put forward a strategic thinking,Is to expand domestic demand.Scientific development concept is the core content of change the mode of economic growth,Adjustment and optimization of economic structure,To reduce dependence on external,The standpoint of the economy in the expanding domestic demand.

　　“把扩大内需称为第一要务肯定不为过。”国家信息中心首席经济学家范剑平也表示，投资和出口过去都很强，而消费则是整个国民经济中间的短板。居民消费之所以这么多年起不来，就是因为居民收入增长比GDP增长的速度低，也比企业利润增长的速度低。靠投资和出口拉动的格局，在这次金融危机过去以后，已经不可能了。要想使中国有可持续的增长动力，就必须要转到依靠广大居民收入增长基础上的消费增长，来支持中国未来经济长期的发展。

"To expand domestic demand as the first priority sure enough."The state information center chief economist FanJianPing also said,Investment and exports in the past are strong,While consumption is in the midst of the whole national economy short plate.Consumer is so many years can't get up,Is because residents income growth than GDP growth speed is low,Than profit of enterprise growth speed is low.Rely on investment and exports pattern,In this financial crisis after the past,That would be impossible.Want to make China has sustainable growth,You must turn to depend on the residents' income growth on the basis of the consumption growth,To support China's future economic long-term development.

　　政策措施还需加力

Policies and measures still need to strength

　　“保持中国经济未来的增速，没有全社会、全体国民的消费愿望，没有相应的消费需求增速的支撑，就很难实现。”经济学家厉以宁表示，增加城乡居民的收入，是有效扩大内需、保持中国经济持续增长的长效机制。因此就一定要让更多的低收入家庭变为中等收入家庭。因为低收入家庭的消费是衣食住行等基本消费，而中等收入者则是教育、休闲、度假等多元化的消费。所以要鼓励低收入的家庭创业，创办小微企业、农村养殖业等，只要这部分人群创业了，就能够增加自己的收入。此外，政府也应该通过减免税，在住房、医疗、教育等各方面提供更多社会保障，解除老百姓的后顾之忧，这就能让老百姓放心地创业并且扩大自己的消费。

"Keep China's economic future growth,Not the whole society/All the national consumption desire,No corresponding consumption demand growth support,It is difficult to realize."Economists li yining said,Increase the income of urban and rural residents,Is effective to expand domestic demand/Keep China's economy growing long-term mechanism.So must let more low-income families become middle-income families.Because of the low income family consumption is' basic necessities of basic consumption,And middle-income earners is education/leisure/Vacation and diversified consumption.So to encourage low-income family business,Founded small micro enterprise/Rural aquaculture industry and other,As long as this part of the business people,Will be able to increase their income.In addition,The government should also be through the reduction or exemption of tax,In the housing/medical/Education and so on various aspects to provide more social security,Remove the trouble back at home of common people,This can make people trust business and expand their consumption.

　　“从长效机制来讲，扩大消费仍是一个长远的任务，应该从源头来抓。”范剑平建议，政府真正要做的就是三件事，第一提高大家的收入，尤其是农村居民的收入、城市中低阶层居民的收入；第二是健全社会保障系统，消除大家消费的后顾之忧，有钱不再去存银行了，而是敢于拿出来消费；第三就是管好消费市场秩序。从扩大消费长效机制来讲，如果能够从这三个方面扎扎实实地做好，老百姓有钱了，消费更有底气了，消费也会更放心，中国的市场完全有希望成为位居世界前列的大市场。

"Will tell from long-term mechanism,Expand consumption is still a long-term task,Should from the source to grasp."FanJianPing Suggestions,The government really have to do is three things,The first raising your income,Especially the rural residents' income/City lower-middle class inhabitant's income;The second is improving the social security system,Eliminate all the trouble back at home of consumer,Money is no longer to save the bank,But dare to take out consumption;The third is to manage consumption market order.From expanding consumption in terms of long-term mechanism,If can from these three aspects to one step at a time,People rich,The consumption have more power,Consumption will also be more at ease,China's market is expected to be completely in the world of the big market.