面对严峻的外贸形势，国务院刚刚出台了促进外贸稳定增长的政策，我们希望这些政策能够尽快发挥积极的效果

In the face of the serious situation of foreign trade,The state council has just introduced to promote the steady growth of foreign trade policy,We hope that these policies can play an active effect as soon as possible

　　张永军苏庆义

ZhangYongJun SuQingYi

　　根据中国海关总署发布外贸数据，8月份我国进出口增长0.2%，其中出口增长2.7%；进口同比下降2.6%；贸易顺差266.7亿美元。8月份的外贸数据相比7月份有两点差别，一是出口的轻微反弹；二是进口出现负增长。笔者认为，8月的出口数据反映了目前仍较严峻的出口形势，从目前情况来看，实现全年的外贸出口目标面临很大难度。进口的负增长则源于内需的疲软和大宗商品价格的下降，扩大内需的任务非常艰巨。

According to China's foreign trade data issued by the general administration of customs,In August the import and export in China increased by 0.2%,Export growth of 2.7%;Imports fell 2.6% year-on-year;The trade surplus of $26.67 billion.August compared with foreign trade data there are two differences in July,One is the export of mild rebound;2 it is import appear negative growth.The author thinks that,August export data reflecting the current is still more serious export situation,From the current situation,To realize the goal of trade export faces great difficulty.Import of negative growth is originated from the weak domestic demand and the commodity price decline,The task of expanding domestic demand is very difficult.

　　由于中国外贸3、4月份表现不佳，在5、6月份出口实现两位数增长时，业界人士一度表现出乐观情绪，普遍认为，中国外贸将呈现“前低、中稳、后高”的态势。可是7、8月份的数据将这种乐观情绪一扫而光。那么，是5、6月份的数据异常，还是7、8月份的数据异常？为什么会出现这种异常？今后4个月的外贸形势到底会呈现什么态势？

Because of China's foreign trade 3/April poor performance,In 5/June export achieve double-digit growth,Practitioners once showed optimism,Is generally believed that,China's foreign trade will present"Low before/Stability in/High after"trend.But seven/August data will be this kind of optimism swept.so,Is 5/June data anomaly,Or 7/August data anomaly?Why will appear this kind of exception?In the next four months of foreign trade situation exactly what can present situation?

　　从国别的角度来看，欧盟市场对中国出口的波动产生了重要影响。在经历了1~4月同比负增长之后，5月份中国对欧盟的出口同比增长3.43%，6月份出口同比保持稳定，但7、8月份中国对欧盟出口又出现下滑。可以看出，中国对欧盟出口的表现直接影响了中国整体出口的表现。自去年四季度以来，受欧债危机影响，欧洲经济形势一直不好。由此推测，5月份中国对欧盟出口的增长，可能受短期因素的影响。

From the point of view of country,The eu market for China's export fluctuation produced important influence.After 1 ~ 4 month after the year-on-year,May China eu exports year-on-year growth of 3.43%,June year-on-year exports remained stable,But 7/August Chinese exports to Europe and declined.Can see,China's exports to Europe has a direct effect on the performance of China's overall export performance.Since the fourth quarter since last year,By the debt crisis,European economic situation has been bad.Thus speculate,May China eu export growth,May be affected by the influence of short-term factors.

　　从中国和贸易伙伴的统计数据来看，中国出口在5、6月份的反弹也着实让人迷惑。限于数据可得性，笔者计算了中国对美国、日本、韩国、中国香港出口的同比增长率。5月份，按中国海关统计，中国对美国、日本、韩国和中国香港出口的同比增长率分别是23.0%、13.0%、6.3%和15.9%。但是，按贸易伙伴给出的统计数据，美国、日本、韩国和中国香港从中国进口的同比增长率分别是6.6%、10.0%、-8.9%和11.2%。可以看出，进口伙伴统计的同比增长率远小于中国海关的统计，其中韩国统计的进口同比增长甚至是负值。6月份的统计差异更加明显。根据中国海关统计，6月份中国对美国、日本、韩国和中国香港出口的同比增长率分别是10.6%、0.11%、7.33%和17.26%。但是，进口伙伴统计的相应进口增长分别是4.46%、-4.53%、-13.78%和-4.23%。虽然这种统计差异也存在于其他月份，但是5、6月份的表现尤其明显。笔者认为，5、6月份出口强劲反弹可能是受企业“抢出口”的影响，透支了7月的出口，而8月的出口在很大程度已经恢复正常。主要原因是5、6月份的出口退税进度加快，导致企业在5、6月份加快了出口结算的进度。这也就解释了为何中国5、6月出口高增长、而贸易伙伴自中国的进口并没有相应出现高增长。事实上，历史数据显示，一旦出口退税政策有所变化，中国的出口数据在接下来的1、2个月就会有所异常。

From China and trade partner statistical data to see,China's export in 5/June rebound also really made people confused.Limited to data availability,The author calculated the China to the United States/Japan/South Korea/Hong Kong, China's exports year-on-year growth rate.may,According to China's customs statistics,China to the United States/Japan/South Korea and China Hong Kong exports year-on-year growth rate were 23.0%/13.0%/6.3% and 15.9%.but,According to trade partner gives statistical data,The United States/Japan/South Korea and Hong Kong, China imported from China respectively year-on-year growth rate is 6.6%/10.0%/- 8.9% and 11.2%.Can see,Import partner statistical year-on-year growth rate is far less than China's customs statistics,The statistics of South Korea imported year-on-year growth or even negative value.June statistical differences more apparent.According to China's customs statistics,China to the United States in June/Japan/South Korea and China Hong Kong exports year-on-year growth rate were 10.6%/0.11%/7.33% and 17.26%.but,Import partner the corresponding statistics import growth respectively is 4.46%/4.53% -/- 13.78% and - 4.23%.Although the statistical differences exist in any other month,But five/June performance especially obvious.The author thinks that,5/June export strong rebound may be due to enterprise"Rob export"influence,Overdrawn July export,And the export of August in large part has returned to normal.The main reason is 5/June export tax rebate to speed up the progress,Lead to enterprise in 5/June to speed up the progress of the export settlement.This also explains why China 5/June export growth/And the trade partners since China's import and no corresponding growth appears.In fact,History data shows,Once the tax reimbursement for export policy change,China's export figures in the next 1/2 months can be abnormal.

　　除此之外，部分人士将5月份出口反弹的主要原因归结为“五一”劳动节的影响。这导致今年5月份的工作日比去年多一个。这对于5月份出口增长高于4月份的原因有一定的解释作用。但笔者认为，该因素可能不是主要影响因素，很简单的反驳理由就是，今年6月份比去年少了一个工作日，但是6月份出口增速依然相当强劲。

In addition,Some people will may export the bounce of the main reason comes down to"The May Day"The influence of the labor day.This has led to the day of may this year than last year a.It may export growth in April is higher than the reason has certain explain action.But the author thinks that,The factors may not be the main influence factors,Very simple contradict reason is,In June this year less than last year a working day,But in June the export growth is still quite strong.

　　根据上述分析，笔者认为，5、6月份的外贸反弹并不是常态，所以没有延续到7、8月份。7、8月份的外贸增速急剧下降，也在情理之中，其中既是向出口增速下降趋势的回归，也有对5、6月份异常反弹进行校正的成份。从这个意义上讲，8月份的出口数据更能反映出口的真实状态。

According to the above analysis,The author thinks that,5/June foreign trade rebound is not normal,So there is no continue to 7/In August.7/In August the foreign trade growth fell sharply,Also in reason,In both export growth to the return of the downward trend,Also have to 5/June anomaly rebound of correcting ingredients.In this sense,August more export data can reflect the true state of export.

　　未来几个月有西方的感恩节、圣诞节，是中国商品出口的传统旺季。因此，如果7、8月份中国出口较低增速不能够很快扭转，实现全年进出口总额增长10%的目标将具有很大的挑战性。面对严峻的外贸形势，国务院刚刚出台了促进外贸稳定增长的政策，我们希望这些政策能够尽快发挥积极的效果。（第一作者系中国国际经济交流中心研究部副部长）

The next few months have western Thanksgiving/Christmas,Is China's merchandise exports of traditional peak season.therefore,If 7/August, China's export growth of low not able to be quickly torsion,Total volume of import and export of full-year growth target of 10% will have a lot of challenging.In the face of the serious situation of foreign trade,The state council has just introduced to promote the steady growth of foreign trade policy,We hope that these policies can play an active effect as soon as possible.(The first author of China international economic communication center, vice minister of research)