如果中日贸易战中，日本制造业的中国市场萎缩，这对日本是很大的打击。有分析认为，中日贸易战之后，可能会出现两种情况。

If in the trade war,Japanese manufacturing market in China atrophy,This is a big blow to Japan.Have analyzed that,After the sino-japanese trade war,May appear two circumstances.

　　随着9月11日日本政府所谓的“购岛”行为发生后，钓鱼岛问题逐步恶化，中日双方是否会打贸易战也成了关注的焦点。

As September 11, the Japanese government called"Purchase island"Behavior after the occurrence of,Diaoyu islands problem gradually deterioration,The two sides will play a trade war has become the focus of attention.

　　由于近年来日本经济越来越依赖于中国，采用经济制裁措施是否是反制日本的良好手段？一旦双方经贸战开打，谁是最大的输家？这个话题似乎有些沉重，但却很残酷的现实。

Because the recent years Japan's economy are increasingly dependent on Chinese,The economic sanctions is counterspell Japan's good means?Once both economic and trade war had begun,Who is the biggest loser?This topic seems to some heavy,But it is the cruel reality.

　　观察人士在分析中日经济的相互依存度后会发现，如果中国对日本实施经济制裁，日本将损失惨重，中国的损失相对较小。日本在中国整体贸易中仅占9%，而中国是日本的最大贸易国，占其贸易总额的21%。就数字而言，如果两国全面控制进出口，日本明显会受到更大损失。

Observers on the analysis of the mutual dependence between the economy will be found,If the Chinese to Japanese economic sanctions,Japan will suffer great losses,China's loss is relatively small.Japan in China's overall trade accounted for only 9%,China is Japan's largest trading nation,Its trade accounts for 21% of the total.In digital,If the two countries full control of import and export,Japan will be significantly more big loss.

　　中国是目前日本最大的贸易伙伴和最大出口对象国，中日贸易对日本经济有相当大的影响。据日本贸易振兴机构发表的统计表明，2011年中日贸易额达到3449亿美元，日本对华进口额为1834亿美元。日本对华出口额为1614亿美元，中日贸易额占日本贸易总额的比例为20.6%。

China is Japan's largest trading partner and the largest export DuiXiangGuo,Sino-japanese trade on the Japanese economy has considerable influence.According to Japan's trade agency released statistics show that,2011 years day trade to $344.9 billion,Japan imports in China for 183.4 billion dollars.Japan exports to China for $161.4 billion,Sino-japanese trade accounted for the proportion of Japanese trade volume is 20.6%.

　　中国海关数据显示，2012年前8个月，中国对日出口986亿美元，进口1200亿美元，贸易逆差314亿美元。而此前2012年1至5月份，中国对全球顺差是229亿美元，而对日本一国的逆差就达到223亿美元。

Chinese customs data display,Eight months of 2012 years ago,China's export, $98.6 billion,Imported 120 billion us dollars,Trade deficit of $31.4 billion.And after 2012 years 1 to 5 months,China's global surplus is $22.9 billion,And a country's deficit to Japan up to $22.3 billion.

　　多年来，日本对华是贸易顺差，中国对日是贸易逆差，因此日本经济对中国的依赖度，要高于中国对日经济的依赖度。

For many years,Japan is China trade surplus,China's day is a trade deficit,Thus Japan's economy to China's dependency,To be higher than China's day economic dependency.

　　说白了，与中国就钓鱼岛问题进行贸易战，可以说是日本抛弃市场的行为最终导致自己被中国市场抛弃。

Frankly speaking,With China over the diaoyu island question for trade war,To say that Japan can abandon market ultimately led to his behavior by the Chinese market abandon.

　　如果中日贸易战中，日本制造业的中国市场萎缩，这对日本是很大的打击。有分析认为，中日贸易战之后，可能会出现两种情况：一种是短期内日本的新增出口会下降，拥有库存日货的经销商会清仓。同时，由于受到中国的经济制裁，故此中国一旦严控日本货物进口，对处于衰退边缘挣扎的日本经济将是雪上加霜。

If in the trade war,Japanese manufacturing market in China atrophy,This is a big blow to Japan.Have analyzed that,After the sino-japanese trade war,May appear two circumstances:One is in the short term Japan's new exports will decline,Have stock of Japanese goods dealers will be final.At the same time,Due to China's economic sanctions,Therefore China once the tight control of Japanese imports of goods,To be in recession edge struggle of the Japanese economy would be a further stinging blow.

　　另一种情况是，日本的制造业地位被韩国等国家取代。由于中日贸易战持续发酵，作为中日邻国——韩国将从中受益。目前在中国的日系车有六大品牌，包括日产、丰田和本田三大企业，以及铃木、马自达和三菱。今年8月，除本田外，日系主流车企销量均出现了不同程度的下滑。因此，现代、起亚等韩国汽车品牌将取代日系车在中国的市场。

Another kind of circumstance is,Japan's manufacturing status was South Korea and other countries to replace.Due to the sino-japanese trade war continuous fermentation,As the neighbours - South Korea will benefit from it.Be in China at present, there are six big brand cars,Including nissan/Toyota and Honda three big enterprise,And suzuki/Mazda and mitsubishi.August,In addition to the Honda,Day system mainstream car sales enterprises all appeared different degree of decline.therefore,modern/Kia and Korean auto brand will replace Japanese in China market.

　　对此，就连对“购岛”行为十分狂热的石原慎太郎日前在东京都知事的例行记者招待会上，针对朝日新闻记者提出的担忧中日对抗对日本经济的打击的提问时也承认日本经济要受很大损失，只是碍于其一贯顽固的反华右翼立场，又恼羞成怒地放言“为了主权，损失经济也在所不惜。”

this,Even with"Purchase island"Behavior very fanatic Mr Ishihara in Tokyo by aid of the regular press conference,According to the asahi shimbun reporter put forward concerns against Japan to the Japanese economy blow's question also acknowledged that Japan's economy must suffer great losses,But due to its consistent stubborn anti-china right wing position,And become angry from embarrassment to speak"In order to sovereignty,Loss economy also regardless of the cost."

　　实际上，经过“失去的20年”，又经历了大地震和海啸，日本的经济实力和地位与之前已有很大的落差，日本经济也仍在艰难的重建和恢复之中。在此背景下，日本经济界人士忧虑，一旦中国被迫对日本进行经济制裁，那么日本将难以承受。

In fact,after"Lost 20 years",And experience the earthquake and tsunami,Japan's economic strength and status and before you've already had a big head,Japan's economy is still in the difficult of reconstruction and recovery.In this context,The Japanese economic circles personage anxiety,Once China was forced to Japan for economic sanctions,Then Japan will difficult to bear.

　　人们也许会问，钓鱼岛及其附近岛屿值多少钱？在日本政府“购岛”账面中：20.5亿日元（100日元约合7.97元人民币）。不过，当中日正常的政治经济交往戛然而止，当愤怒的中国民众自发拒绝日本产品，日本突然发现，它为自己一厢情愿的“购岛”行为，所付出的，远远要多于账面上的20.5亿日元。

People may ask,Diaoyu island and its nearby islands value how many money?In the Japanese government"Purchase island"Book in:2.05 billion yen(100 yen 7.97 yuan RMB).but,Day of normal political and economic contacts to an abrupt end,When the anger of Chinese people spontaneous refused to Japanese products,Japan suddenly found,It is his wishful"Purchase island"behavior,pay,Far more than on the book of 2.05 billion yen.

　　因此，中日贸易战日本是最大的输家。当然也有人认为，贸易战是一把双刃剑，中国在制裁日本的同时，也会影响到自身经济的发展。

therefore,Sino-japanese trade war Japan is the biggest loser.Of course also some people thought,Trade war is a double-edged sword,China in the restrictions against Japan at the same time,Also will affect the development of our own economy.

　　部分学者在博客中称，在全球产业链中，日本仍占据链主地位，而中国仍处于最低端的加工组装环节。在中日经济互相依存方面，实际上很难衡量谁更需要对方。若没有日本技术，中国的多数产业也将无法开动机器。

Some scholars in the blog said,In the global industrial chain,Japan is still occupy chain main status,While China is still in the lowest processing assembly link.In the sino-japanese economic interdependent aspects,In fact it is difficult to measure who is more need each other.If there is no Japanese technology,China's most industries will be unable to start the machine.

　　这话不假，然而，既然钓鱼岛关系到中国的民族尊严、领土主权，那么中国不花任何成本，不付出任何代价？能够真正实现吗？答案是否定的。

This is true,however,Since the diaoyu islands in relation to China's national dignity/Territorial sovereignty,So China does not take any cost,Don't pay any price?To truly achieve?The answer is no.

　　一个国家的经济损失了，可以通过努力弥补回来，但一个国家的领土被别国夺走了却很难拿得回来。被日本侵占的中国钓鱼岛以及被越南、菲律宾、马来西亚和文莱侵占的中国南海诸多岛屿就是突出的例证。

A country's economic loss,Can through the efforts to catch up,But a country's territory by other countries take but it is difficult to get back.Occupation by Japan Chinese diaoyu islands and Vietnam/The Philippines/Malaysia and brunei encroach on the south China sea islands are many outstanding example.