“中国·义乌小商品指数”信息系统最新数据显示，9月义乌小商品景气指数攀升至1009.14点，这是该指数在连续4个月低于1000点荣枯线后，今年第二次站在荣枯线上。中国证券报记者调查发现，尽管义乌小商品指数出现反弹，但从义乌当地的圣诞订单情况来看，出口仍然呈现“旺季不旺”的态势。

"China · yiwu small commodity index"Information system the latest data display,September yiwu small commodity boom index climbed to 1009.14 points,This is the index after four months less than 1000 point vicissitude line,This year the second station in vicissitude online.China's stock certificate report reporter survey found,Despite the yiwu small commodity index rebounded,But from yiwu local Christmas orders situation,Exports are still present"Is not busy season"trend.

　　分析人士表示，有“外贸风向标”之称的圣诞用品订单在销售旺季减少，预示我国9月的出口形势仍不容乐观，可能同比仍呈个位数增长态势，三季度我国外贸可能跌至今年的“冰点”。

Analysts said,have"Foreign trade wind vane"Said the Christmas items in order to reduce sales season,Indicate our country on September export situation is still not optimistic,Year-on-year growth may be still a single-digit situation,Our country foreign trade may fall to the third quarter of this year"Freezing point".

　　圣诞订单大幅减少

Christmas orders is greatly reduced

　　每年的7至9月是我国圣诞用品企业接单的密集期。“今年是我做圣诞用品行业5年来最差的一年。与去年相比，我们企业今年的圣诞用品订单初步估计至少减少了一半。”浙江省义乌博旭工艺品公司老板黄允旭向中国证券报记者说。

Every July to September is the Christmas products enterprise joint single intensive period."This year is my do Christmas supplies industry the worst year for five years.Compared with last year,Our enterprise this year's Christmas items order preliminary estimates at least reduce the half."Zhejiang yiwu Po xu handicraft company boss HuangYunXu to China stock certificate report reporter said.

　　黄允旭解释说，不仅国内圣诞用品企业感受到了销售压力，国外企业也是如此。不少从事圣诞用品行业的外商已经决定，在库存清理完毕就着手转行，不再从事这一行业。“去年外商在我国下了大量的圣诞用品订单，原以为去年圣诞节会迎来可观的销量，没想到没卖出多少。这不仅导致外商出现大量库存积压，也直接导致今年我国相关企业的圣诞订单大幅下滑。”

HuangYunXu explained,Not only domestic Christmas products enterprise felt sales pressure,Foreign enterprise is also so.Many Christmas supplies industry in foreign have decided,In inventory cleared began to turned,No longer engaged in this industry."Last year the foreign in our country a lot of Christmas items order,Thought last Christmas will usher in a considerable sales,How much that didn't sell.It not only results in the appearance of a large number of foreign inventory backlog,This year also led directly to the our country related enterprise Christmas orders fell sharply."

　　义乌市圣诞用品行业协会秘书长陈金林表示，圣诞订单的下降与圣诞用品行业的特点有关。一直以来，该行业在加工贸易行业中被认为是赚钱的行业，近几年进入该行业的企业数量逐年增加，导致竞争压力越来越大。据该协会初步统计，2010年义乌圣诞企业有400多家，去年增加到500多家，今年增加到750家。“市场蛋糕没有变大，但分食者越来越多，必然导致企业出口更加困难。此外，我们低估了这次金融危机的严重性。”

Yiwu Christmas supplies industry association secretary general ChenJinLin said,Christmas orders decline and Christmas items by the characteristics of the industry.Has been,The industry in the processing trade industry is considered to be profitable industry,In recent years the industry into the enterprise the number increases year by year,Cause the pressure of competition is more and more big.According to the association preliminary statistics,2010 yiwu Christmas enterprise more than 400,Last year to more than 500 home,This year increased to 750."Market cake no bigger,But points eater more and more,Inevitably leads to enterprises to export more difficult.In addition,We underestimate the seriousness of the financial crisis."

　　“现在圣诞订单基本结束，圣诞用品出口也接近尾声。从10月开始，企业开始忙内销。”黄允旭说，消费需求的不旺令企业对内销市场也不看好。

"Now Christmas orders basic end,Christmas products export is also near the end.From October,Enterprise began to busy sale in domestic market."HuangYunXu said,Consumer demand is not busy make enterprises to domestic market is not valued.

　　预计9月出口同比小幅增长

September is expected to export a year-on-year growth

　　民生证券宏观经济分析师张磊表示，我国出口在很大程度上要看加工贸易出口的情况。加工贸易出口占我国出口比重在50%左右，圣诞用品行业在加工贸易中又占有较高比重，其出口订单的下滑预示着加工贸易出口的下滑。国外四季度的消费需求对应国内三季度的订单。据此可以判断，9月我国出口同比略有增长，但估计仍是个位数增长。结合7月和8月的出口形势看，三季度外贸将跌入今年的低谷。

The people's livelihood securities macroeconomic analyst zhang lei said,Our export to a large extent depends on the situation of export processing trade.Processing trade exports of our country export proportion at around 50%,Christmas products industry in the processing trade and high proportion,Its export orders decline indicates the processing trade exports decline.Foreign fourth quarter consumption demand for the third quarter of the domestic order.Can be judged according to,September of our country export year-on-year growth slightly,But it is still a digit growth.Combined with July and August export situation to see,Foreign trade will fall into the third quarter of this year's bust.

　　瑞穗证券亚洲公司首席经济学家沈建光表示，相关部门公布的中国9月新出口订单指数为48.8%，环比上升2.2个百分点，PMI外贸统计数据也有所改善，但国内外需求依旧疲软。尽管9月欧元区宣布了债务购买计划，美国也启动了第三轮量化宽松，但鉴于于发达国家实施紧缩措施和结构性改革，经济全面复苏尚待时日，中国出口需求仍将受到拖累。在加快出口退税进度、扩大融资规模、扩大出口信用保险规模以及覆盖面等措施的支持下，估计9月出口同比增速可能达到4%，而进口仍将延续8月的负增长态势，同比增速可能下降3%。

Mizuho Asian companies securities chief economist ShenJianGuang said,The relevant departments of China announced on September new export orders index is 48.8%,Link up 2.2%,PMI foreign trade statistics also improved,But demand is still weak at home and abroad.Although September the eurozone announced debt purchase plan,The United States also launched the third round of quantitative easing,But in view of the developed countries in the implementation of austerity measures and structural reform,Economic comprehensive recovery time is yet to be,China's export demand still will be drag.In speed up the progress of the export tax rebate/Expand the financing scale/Expand the export credit insurance scale and coverage under the support of measures,Estimate September exports year-on-year growth could reach 4%,While imports will still continue 8 months of negative growth situation,Year-on-year growth could fall 3%.