海关数据显示，9月进出口呈现回暖迹象，尤其是出口创下单月历史新高，增速大幅回 升 至9 .9%。 与此同时，记者采访发现，外贸企业订单相比上半年也开始呈现回暖迹象。不过，将于今日开幕的广交会预计本届最终成交难言乐观，到会采购客商也将与上届持平。专家分析，短期回暖仍难缓解长期压力，目前还不能断言外贸拐点到来。未来一段时间外部需求仍然难言乐观，全年外贸增长仍将低位趋稳。

Customs data display,September import and export present signs of warmer,Especially export hit a record high monthly performance,Growth back sharply rise To 9 . 9%. meanwhile,Reporters found that,Foreign trade enterprise orders during the first half compared also began to show signs of warmer.but,Will be held today in the opening of the China export commodities fair is expected to clinch a deal the final last optimistic,To purchase merchant will also with the former flat.Expert analysis,Short-term milder is still difficult to alleviate the pressure for a long time,At present still cannot assert that foreign trade inflection point arrival.The next period of time external demand remains difficult optimistic,The foreign trade growth will still low stabilised.

　　回暖

milder

　　9月出口创单月新高

September export and high monthly performance

　　海关总署10日发布进出口数据显示，9月当月，我国进出口总值为3450.3亿美元，比去年同期(下同)增长6.3%。其中，出口1863.5亿美元，增长9 .9%，单月出口规模创历史新高；进口1586.8亿美元，增长2.4%。当月贸易顺差扩大至276.7亿美元。

Promulgated by the general administration of customs and the import and export data display,During the month of September,China import and export value is 345.03 billion dollars,Than the same period last year(Similarly hereinafter)Growth of 6.3%.the,Export $186.35 billion,Growth and . 9%,The export scale month a record;Imported 158.68 billion us dollars,Growth of 2.4%.The trade surplus expansion to $27.67 billion.

　　据海关统计，今年前3季度，我国进出口总值28424 .7亿美元，增长6.2%。其中，出口14953.9亿美元，增长7.4%；进口13470.8亿美元，增长4.8%，贸易顺差1483.1亿美元。

According to customs statistics,In the first three quarters of this year,China import and export (GDP) 28424 . 700 million dollars,Growth of 6.2%.the,Export $1.49539 trillion,Growth of 7.4%;Imported 1.34708 trillion us dollars,Growth of 4.8%,The trade surplus of $148.31 billion.

　　相比7、8两个月，9月出口增速明显回暖。7、8月出口增速分别为1%和2 .7%，9月出口增速扩大至9 .9%。进口增速虽不及7月份的4.7%，但也告别了8月份的负增长，从-2.6%增至2.4%。受出口规模创单月历史新高影响，在进口同比增速转跌为升的背景下，9月份贸易顺差比8月小幅微升10.09亿美元。

7 compared/And two months,September export growth significantly milder.7/August export growth were 1% and 2 . 7%,September 9 to expand the export growth . 9%.Import growth is less than 4. 7% in July,But also bid farewell to August negative growth,From 2.6% to 2.4%.By the export scale to create a record monthly performance influence,In the import year-on-year growth turned down for litres of background,September trade surplus more than 8 months small microliter $1.009 billion.

　　接受记者采访的专家表示，9、10月历来是外贸企业的接单旺季，9月出口增速回暖的主要原因是圣诞订单季的来临带动外需变暖，以及稳定外贸增长的政策效果开始显现。而进口回暖则受益于国内投资需求的企稳，以及为了规避原材料价格上涨风险，厂商开始主动补库存。

The experts said to reporters,9/October has always been a foreign trade enterprise's joint single peak season,September warmed export growth is the main reason of the Christmas season order come drive now warming,Foreign trade growth and stability of the policy effect began to appear.And import milder is benefit from domestic investment demand stabilises,And in order to avoid the risk of rising prices of raw materials,Manufacturers began to active fill inventory.

　　澳新银行环球市场部大中华区首席经济师刘利刚表示，来自美国的圣诞订单、去年相对较低的基数以及中国政府稳定外贸的政策，导致了9月出口的表现较好。出口出现反弹，加上中国官方开始加快一系列投资项目的上马，也预示着在未来几个季度内，中国经济可能出现较为温和的反弹。

Australia bank global marketing the greater China region LiuLiGang chief economist said,From the United States Christmas orders/Last year, relatively low base and the Chinese government stable foreign trade policy,Led to the September export performance better.Export rebounded,With China's official begins to pick up a series of investment projects of the mount,Also indicate in the next few quarters inside,China's economy may appear relatively mild rebound.

　　国家稳定外贸增长的政策效果开始显现，也有助于进出口的恢复性增长。据统计，今年十一期间，仅出入境检验检疫费这一项免收政策额，就惠及进出口企业5902家，免收金额5449.2万元。

The country's stability of foreign trade growth policy effect began to appear,Also helps to the import and export of restorative growth.According to the statistics,During this year.,Only the entry and exit inspection and quarantine fee that a policy will be exempted from the forehead,Will benefit import and export enterprise 5902,Will be exempted from the amount of 54.492 million yuan.

　　预期

expected

　　企业订单有所回暖 广交会成交难乐观

Enterprise order been getting warmer The China export commodities fair deal difficult optimistic

　　素有“外贸风向标”之称的广交会今日拉开帷幕。14日，在第112届广交会新闻发布会上，广交会发言人、中国对外贸易中心副主任刘建军预计，本届广交会到会采购客商数应该会和上届持平，最终成交量不容乐观，和前几届相比可能波动不大。

Known as"Foreign trade wind vane"The curtain, the China export commodities fair today.14,In the 112th Canton fair news conference,Canton fair spokesman/China foreign trade center, deputy director of the LiuJianJun expected,The Canton fair to purchase merchant number should be flat and the last,Final volume is not optimistic,And the first several session may not compared fluctuations.

　　刘建军介绍说，本届广交会总展位数为59509个，境内外参展企业24840家，比上届增加196家。出口展区方面，本届广交会出口展位满足率仅为54%，说明在经济环境不确定的背景下，广大外贸企业对通过广交会开拓国际市场的诉求更加强烈。

LiuJianJun said,The Canton fair total booth number is 59509,The 24840 enterprises at home and abroad,The last increase than 196.Export exhibition area in,The Canton fair booth meet the export rate is only 54%,Illustrate the economic environment under the background of uncertainty,The foreign trade enterprises to develop international market by the China export commodities fair appeal more strongly.

　　对于采购商到会情况，刘建军说，通过广交会方面的努力，最终邀请采购商数量达130.5万户，比上届增长约17%。

For buyers to the situation,LiuJianJun said,Through the Canton fair efforts,Final invite buyers quantity of 1.305 million households,About a 17% increase over last year.

　　对于本届广交会的最终成交量，刘建军直言，由于受多重不利因素影响，国内外经济趋势尚未彻底改变，因此本届广交会的最终成交量将不容乐观。但他同时表示，外部客观环境已经迫使部分外贸企业进行转型升级，加之国家稳定外贸增长政策的出台，因此预计本届广交会的最终成交量和前几届相比，不会出现太大波动。

For the Canton fair final volume,LiuJianJun the truth,Because of the multiple adverse factors,The economic trend at home and abroad has not yet been completely change,Therefore the Canton fair final volume will not optimistic.But he also said,External objective environment has forced part of the foreign trade enterprise transformation and upgrade,The country's stability and foreign trade growth policy appearing,Therefore it is estimated this Canton fair final volume and previous compared,Won't appear too big wave motion.

　　《经济参考报》记者采访了解到，一些外贸企业订单已经出现回暖迹象。由于圣诞节将至，广东、浙江、江苏等省部分企业的订单情况有所好转；此外，一些推出新设计、新产品，转型升级有所成效的企业订单也有所好转，但展望未来几个月到明年年初，总体情况可能依然严峻。

[Economic reference to]Reporters learned,Some foreign trade enterprise order has appeared warmer signs.Due to the Christmas will come,guangdong/zhejiang/Jiangsu provinces such as part of the enterprise order situation better;In addition,Some introduction of new design/New product,The transformation and upgrading has effective enterprise order also improved,But look forward to the future several months to early next year,The overall situation may is still severe.

　　江苏苏州的一家电子元器件及设备生产厂商的情况比较乐观。该厂商参会人员向《经济参考报》记者介绍，由于欧美圣诞假期将至，这些国家和地区的电子消费品需求急剧增长，因此接到了来自欧美大量的订单，而企业2013年的订单情况目前也比较理想。该人士还告诉记者：“企业自身转型升级，推出了部分新产品，迎合了市场需求，也是订单情况好转的关键。”不过，这家企业还告诉记者，订单水平尚未恢复到金融危机前的最好水平。

Jiangsu suzhou a electronic components and equipment manufacturers more optimistic.The manufacturer to the personnel[Economic reference to]Reporter introduced,Due to Europe and the United States Christmas vacation will come,These countries and regions of electronic consumer demand has increased dramatically,Therefore received a large order from Europe and the United States,And enterprise 2013 orders at present is ideal.This personage also told reporters:"The transformation and upgrading of enterprises,Introduced some new products,Cater to the market demand,Is also the key to order upturn."but,The enterprise also told reporters,The order has not been restored to the level of the best level before the financial crisis.

　　广东佛山一家机电配件生产企业参会人员告诉记者，和今年上半年相比，下半年的订单数量明显增加，比上半年增长近两成，但和金融危机前、企业经营状况较好时相比，仍有一定差距。他同时担忧地告诉记者：“明年订单的情况现在看不是太理想，欧美采购商的生产情况不好，直接影响了我们。”

Guangdong foshan a mechanical and electrical accessories production enterprise the staff told reporters,And compared to the first half of this year,In the second half of the order quantity increased significantly,A nearly twenty percent increase than the first half,But before the financial crisis/Enterprise management situation better than when,There is still a certain gap.He also worries told reporters:"Next year the situation of order now see is not too ideal,Europe and the United States purchaser production situation is bad,Directly affect us."

　　压力

pressure

　　全年外贸仍将低位趋稳

The foreign trade will still low stabilised

　　业内人士认为，尽管9月份我国进出口数据有所回暖，但仍比去年同期两位数的增速大幅放缓，而且还要考虑到季节因素，因此还不能断言外贸拐点到来，走势还需继续观察。未来一段时间外部需求仍然难言乐观，出口仍将低位增长。随着国内经济逐步触底，进口增速可能上升。

The personage inside course of study thinks,Although September import and export data in our country have milder,But still higher than the same period last year double-digit growth slowed sharply,But also considering seasonal factors,So is not assert that foreign trade inflection point arrival,Trend still need to continue to watch.The next period of time external demand remains difficult optimistic,Export growth will remain low.As the domestic economy gradually touch bottom,Imports may rise.

　　中国人民大学经济学院副院长王晋斌对《经济参考报》记者表示，9月单月进出口6.3%的增长率与今年前3个季度进出口6.2%的增长率基本持平。因此，9月份的进出口数据属于正常范围。目前外部需求仍难言乐观，出口的反弹不应给予过高的乐观判断。四季度的外贸走势依然会延续今年前三个季度的态势，难以有质的变化，但随着国内经济逐步触底，进口会有所增长，单月顺差可能会下降。

People's university of China economy, vice President of the college of WangJinBin[Economic reference to]reporters,September odd-numbered months import and export 6.3% growth this year and the first three quarter of the growth rate of import and export 6.2% flat.therefore,September's import and export data belong to the normal range.At present the external demand is still difficult optimistic,Exports rebound should not give too much optimistic judgement.The fourth quarter of the foreign trade trends will still continue the first three quarters of this year situation,To have a qualitative change,But along with the domestic economy gradually touch bottom,Import will be increased,Odd-numbered months surplus may decline.

　　刘利刚表示，从政策端来看，中国官方将延续对贸易商的税收和融资支持，以保证出口行业保持整体稳定。同时，由于自5月份以来，中国发改委已经审批了大约7万亿元的投资项目，面临重重困境的重工业将逐步筑底。

LiuLiGang said,The policy end to see,China's official will continue to trade business tax and financing support,To ensure that the export industry keep stability.At the same time,Because since may,China's development and reform commission has approval about 7 trillion yuan of investment projects,Confronted with many difficulties of heavy industry will gradually build bottom.

　　交通银行金融研究中心研究员陈鹄飞认为，未来国际大宗商品价格趋稳略升的可能性较大，四季度国内经济增速可能趋稳回升，固定资产投资累计同比将有所回升，进口商品的需求可能会逐步增加。因此预计2012年10月进口同比可能略有回升。

Bank of communications financial research center researchers ChenGu fly think,Future international commodity prices stabilised slightly more likely to rise,Four quarters domestic economic growth may be stabilised picks up,Fixed asset investment accumulated up to rebound,Import demand may increase gradually.Therefore is expected in October 2012 year-on-year imports may slightly rebounded.

　　刘建军表示，由于美国推出第三轮量化宽松货币政策，将致使人民币持续升值，增加我国输入性通胀压力，以及推高国际大宗商品价格，增加企业成本，特别是沿海地区来料加工型企业成本，这将成为新的不利因素，因此未来几个月到明年年初，将有可能成为我国外贸形势最为严峻的时期。但他同时强调，我国外贸发展的传统优势并未根本削弱，新的优势正在逐步确立，而且外部压力客观上也倒逼企业调整结构、转变方式、提升内生动力和国际竞争力。在全球范围内，我国出口产品仍有较强竞争力。

LiuJianJun said,Because the United States launched the third round of quantitative easing monetary policy,The yuan will continue to rise,Increase our country input sex inflationary pressure,And GaoGuoJi push commodity prices,Increase the enterprise cost,Especially coastal area materials processing enterprise cost,This will become the new unfavorable factors,So the next few months to early next year,Will likely become China's foreign trade situation of the most serious period.But he also stressed,Our country foreign trade development advantages of traditional did not fundamental weaken,New advantage is gradually established,And external pressure objectively speaking, it also DaoBi enterprise structure readjustment/Transformation way/Ascension endogenous power and international competitiveness.In the global scope,Our export products still has strong competitiveness.