经过2010年、2011年两年的高速发展，我农产品出口将进入到一个调整期，预计2012年、2013年我农产品出口增速将在5%～10%的区间内运行，2012年我农产品进口增速将在20%左右。

After 2010 years/In 2011, two years of rapid development,I agricultural product export will enter into a phase of adjustment,In 2012 is expected to/In 2013 I agricultural product export growth will be 5% ~ 10% of the interval operation,In 2012 I agricultural products import growth will be 20% or so.

　　农产品进口好于出口

Agricultural imports to exports

　　进出口规模保持增长。2012年前8个月，我农产品进出口总额为1125.1亿美元，同比增长16.5%，比去年全年增速下降11个百分点。其中，出口额为394.1亿美元，同比增长3.4%，比去年全年增速下降19.6个百分点；进口731.1亿美元，同比增长25.1%，比去年全年增速下降5.5个百分点。

Import and export scale keep growth.Eight months of 2012 years ago,I to the agricultural product import and export amount of $112.51 billion,Year-on-year growth of 16.5%,Growth fell by 11% than last year.the,Exports to 39.41 billion us dollars,Year-on-year growth of 3.4%,Growth fell by 19.6% than last year;Imported 73.11 billion us dollars,Year-on-year growth of 25.1%,Growth fell by 5.5% than last year.

　　受全球经济复苏放缓影响，前8个月农产品出口呈低速增长，出口增速由1月份的-4.3%反弹到5月份5.8%，然后又跌至8月份的2.4%。国际大宗农产品价格上涨因素对农产品进口起到拉动作用，但部分产品进口价格上涨又抑制了进口需求。农产品进口增速由1月份的-6%上升到7月份的22.1%，8月份回落到9.3%。总体看，农产品进、出口贸易呈分化走势，进口情况明显好于出口。

Impacted by the global economic recovery slowing effect,In the first eight months of slower growth in agricultural product export,Export growth by January - 4.3% to 5.8% rebound in May,Then fell to 2.4% in August.International agricultural commodities prices factors on agricultural imports a stimulus,But some products import prices and inhibit the import demand.Agricultural imports by growth in January - 6% to 22.1% in July,August dropped to 9.3%.On the whole,Agricultural products into/Export trade is differentiation trend,Import situation was obviously better than the export.

　　对欧盟、东盟、韩国、俄罗斯出口负增长。前九大进口来源地基本保持增长。前8个月，我对欧盟、东盟、韩国、俄罗斯出口增速分别为-8.4%、-0.8%、-6%、-4.5%，特别是美韩自贸区的建立对我农产品出口的挤出效应已初步显现。我对日本出口额78.2亿美元，同比增长13.4%；对美国、香港出口额同比分别增长10.3%和10.7%。

The European Union/asean/South Korea/The Russian export negative growth.First nine largest source of imports basic keep growth.In the first eight months,I to the European Union/asean/South Korea/The Russian export growth for - 8.4% respectively/0.8% -/6% -/4.5% -,Especially the establishment of the United States and South Korea free trade to me of the agricultural product export extrusion effect has been revealed.I for the Japanese export $7.82 billion,Year-on-year growth of 13.4%;In the United States/Hong Kong exports year-on-year growth of 10.3%, respectively, and 10.7%.

　　前8个月，我农产品前十大进口市场合计进口额447.5亿美元，同比增长25.5%。其中，除了自马来西亚进口农产品出现下降之外，对其他九大市场的进口均保持增长态势。我自美国进口农产品金额为176.7亿美元，同比增长12.5%；自巴西、澳大利亚和印度进口分别增长45.5%、20.8%和95.1%。

In the first eight months,I produce top ten import market aggregate amount of imports of $44.75 billion,Year-on-year growth of 25.5%.the,In addition to imported from Malaysia agricultural products outside the decline,For other nine big market import all continue to rise.I from the United States imported agricultural products amount of $17.67 billion,Year-on-year growth of 12.5%;From Brazil/Australia and India import growth of 45.5%, respectively/20.8% and 95.1%.

　　广东、安徽、江西出口快速增长，北京、湖南、重庆进口增速快。前8个月，广东、安徽、江西出口同比分别增长12%、12%和45.2%，大大高于平均水平。特别是江西的农产品出口快速增长与江西注重环保和产业转移有关。前8个月，北京、湖南、重庆进口同比分别增长84.3%、89.7%和1.6倍，大大高于行业平均水平。

guangdong/anhui/Jiangxi exports rapid growth,Beijing/hunan/Chongqing faster than imports.In the first eight months,guangdong/anhui/Jiangxi exports year-on-year growth of 12%, respectively/12% and 45.2%,Greatly prep above is average level.Especially in jiangxi agricultural product export rapid growth and jiangxi pay attention to environmental protection and industrial transfer relevant.In the first eight months,Beijing/hunan/Chongqing import year-on-year growth of 84.3%, respectively/89.7% and 1.6 times,Greatly higher than the industry average.

　　食用蔬菜出口大幅下降，玉米、原糖进口强劲增长。前8个月，我水产品出口111.8亿美元，同比增长8.3%，比去年全年水产品出口增速降低22.1个百分点。受国际市场需求减少及取消蔬菜出口退税政策的影响，食用蔬菜出口44.8亿美元，同比下降24.2%。鸡肉制品、肠衣、茶叶、花生等我出口大宗产品出口增速普遍低于去年全年增速。

Edible vegetable export decline sharply,corn/Raw sugar imported strong growth.In the first eight months,I aquatic product export $11.18 billion,Year-on-year growth of 8.3%,Last year more than 22.1% lower aquatic product export growth.By the international market demand decreases and the cancellation of the vegetable export tax rebate policy influence,Edible vegetable export $4.48 billion,24.2% year-on-year drop.Chicken products/casing/tea/Peanuts I export bulk products export growth generally lower than last year's growth.

　　前8个月，我国大豆进口量为3933.7万吨，同比增长17.2%，进口主要源自巴西和美国。玉米进口量为371.4万吨，比去年同期增长7.2倍。小麦、大米、原糖进口量同比分别增长2.4倍、2.5倍和1倍。奶粉、葡萄酒、木薯干、水果等产品都保持了10%左右的进口增速。

In the first eight months,Our country soybean imports for 39.337 million tons,Year-on-year growth of 17.2%,Main imports from Brazil and the United States.Corn imports for 3.714 million tons,Than last year the corresponding period grows 7.2 times.wheat/rice/Sugar imports respectively compared to the increased by 2.4 times/2.5 times and 1 times.Milk powder/wine/tapioca/Fruit products are maintained a 10% of imports.

　　全年农产品进口增速约为20%

The growth of agricultural imports about 20%

　　展望今年四季度乃至明年的农产品出口形势，从有利因素看，外贸政策支持力度将进一步增强，且农产品和食品属于刚性需求，我劳动密集型农产品出口的结构优势依然存在，且许多企业都在向开发深加工农产品和有机农产品方向转型。从不利因素看，目前许多大宗农产品出口呈“量减价增”的态势。一方面国际需求和订单不断减少，另一方面出口成本依然高企。这迫切要求我外贸企业打通国内市场的分销渠道，形成内外贸一体化经营的规模优势，从而有效降低经营成本。而外贸企业做内销仍面临诸多挑战。

This year are four quarter and next year's the export situation of agricultural products,See from the favorable factors,Foreign trade policy support will be further enhanced,And agricultural products and food belong to the rigid demand,I labor-intensive agricultural product export structure advantages still exist,And many enterprises to develop deep processing agricultural and organic agricultural products direction transformation.See from the unfavorable factors,At present a lot of bulk agricultural products export is"Quantity increase sale"trend.On one hand the international demand and order declining,On the other hand export cost is still high.The urgent request I foreign trade enterprise through the domestic market distribution channel,Form domestic and foreign trade integration management the size advantage,So as to effectively reduce the operational cost.And the foreign trade enterprise do sale in domestic market still faces many challenges.

　　经过2010年、2011年两年的高速发展，我农产品出口将进入到一个调整期，尽管有通胀预期的短期因素刺激，整体出口增速将会放缓，预计2012年、2013年我农产品出口增速将在5%～10%的区间内运行。进口方面，由于国内部分农产品价格波动较大，影响小农户的生产积极性，且国外农产品具有规模生产效应，生产成本较低。再加上消费升级因素，预计2012年我农产品进口增速将在20%左右，2013年进口增速在15%～20%的区间内运行。

After 2010 years/In 2011, two years of rapid development,I agricultural product export will enter into a phase of adjustment,Despite the inflation expectations of the short-term factors stimulation,The whole export growth will slow,In 2012 is expected to/In 2013 I agricultural product export growth will be 5% ~ 10% of the interval operation.Import aspects,Because of domestic agricultural prices fluctuates greatly,Influence the production of small farmers enthusiasm,And foreign agricultural products with scale production effect,The cost of production is lower.Plus consumption upgrade factors,Is expected in 2012 I agricultural products import growth will be 20% or so,The import of 2013 growth at 15% ~ 20% of the interval operation.

　　农产品贸易面临的问题和挑战

Agricultural products trade faces problems and challenges

　　国外市场的食品消费意愿下降。国外市场的食品消费意愿下降。欧债危机改变了欧元区消费者的消费习惯，尤其在西班牙等重债国，民众减少外出就餐的次数，食品采购倾向于少量、多频次购买，这反过来影响到食品供应链以及贸易的供应成本与节奏。在发达国家中，美国失业率维持在8%以上，日本经济并没有如预期地出现持续反弹。“金砖国家”中，印度、巴西国内生产总值（GDP）增速大幅回落。尽管欧盟、美国陆续推出量化宽松政策，但总体看，全球经济低速增长和需求不足的情况可能常态化，并对我农产品贸易带来不利影响。

The overseas market food consumption will decline.The overseas market food consumption will decline.The debt crisis changed the eurozone consumer spending habits,Especially in Spain ChongZhaiGuo,To reduce the number of people eating out,Food purchasing tend to a small amount/Many frequency to buy,This, in turn, affect the food supply chain and the supply of trade cost and rhythm.In the developed countries,The United States unemployment in more than 8%,The Japanese economy is not as expected to a sustained rally."Nuggets countries"in,India/Brazil GDP(GDP)Growth dropped sharply in the.Although the European Union/The United States releasing quantitative easing policy,But on the whole the,The global economic low speed growth and the circumstance of insufficient demand may normalization,And I agricultural products trade bring adverse effect.

　　目前，正处于农产品收获的季节，企业反映，当前国外客户正处于观望期，下单谨慎。而企业对未来价格走势难以判断，采取少量采购、随行就市的态度。从前8个月农产品出口情况看，许多大宗出口农产品呈“量减价增”的态势，订单减少情况十分明显，而订单减少意味着出口规模下降、出口成本上升，二季度部分新兴市场国家出现10%～20%的货币贬值，导致我出口形势更加不利。

At present,Is in agricultural harvest season,Enterprise reflect,The current foreign customers are in wait-and-see period,Order cautious.And the enterprise for the future price trend is difficult to judge,Take a small amount of purchase/The attitude of the is.Once upon a time eight months of the agricultural product export,Many bulk export agricultural products is"Quantity increase sale"trend,Order reduced obviously,And order to reduce means the export scale down/Export cost rise,The second quarter part of the emerging market countries appear 10% ~ 20% of currency depreciation,Cause I export situation more adverse.

　　农产品进出口波动加剧。目前，我农产品出口企业面临出口成本高企、融资体系不健全、贸易风险防范难度加大等困难。8月当月，我农产品出口额为50.3亿美元，环比增长2.3%，同比增长2.4%。今年4月、6月和7月，农产品出口额环比分别下降4.3%、3.7%和1.9%。总体看，农产品出口增速已从去年全年增速23%下降到约4%的增速，降幅为19个百分点。

The agricultural product import and export fluctuation intensifies.At present,I agricultural product export enterprise facing export costs high/Financing system is not sound/Trade risk increase the difficulty of the difficulties.During the month of August,I agricultural exports to 5.03 billion us dollars,Link growth of 2.3%,Year-on-year growth of 2.4%.In April this year/June and July,Agricultural products export link were down by 4.3%/3.7% and 1.9%.On the whole,Agricultural product export growth last year has from the growth of 23% to about 4% of the growth,Decreased by 19%.

　　8月当月，农产品进口额为91.2亿美元，环比下降7.4%，同比增长9.3%。前8个月，在美国干旱造成玉米和大豆减产的影响下，农产品进口增势十分强劲。但过高的进口价格也抑制了需求，且国内夏粮丰收已成定局，未来进口增速将从高速增长转为平稳增长。

During the month of August,Agricultural products import for 9.12 billion dollars,Link fell by 7.4%,Year-on-year growth of 9.3%.In the first eight months,In the United States caused by drought corn and soybeans under the influence of production,Agricultural products import growth is very strong.But higher import prices also curbed demand,And domestic the summer crops harvest has become a foregone conclusion,Future growth will be imported from rapid growth to steady growth.

　　贸易摩擦继续升温。随着国际经济增长放缓，贸易摩擦和技术性保护措施明显增加。今年以来，欧盟、日本等地区分别提高了茶叶等产品的农残限量标准，日本决定将2006年实施的肯定列表制度中的暂定标准变为永久标准，许多缺乏实验依据的农残检测标准都变成一律标准，即采取“零容忍”的态度。这一措施违反WTO/SPS原则，并将对贸易带来不利影响。印尼提高了大蒜进口必需进行备案和申请配额，且只能从三个港口进口。美国继续对我禽肉开关问题采取拖延战术。这些都增加了我企业扩大出口的难度。

Trade friction continue to heat up.Along with the international economic slowdown,Trade friction and the technical protection measures increased significantly.Since this year,The European Union/Japan and other regions were increased by tea and other products the limited standards of pesticide residues,Japan's decision will be carried out 2006 positive list system of provisional standards become permanent standard,Many lack experimental basis detect pesticide residues standard all become are standard,Namely take"Zero tolerance"attitude.The measures against WTO/SPS principle,And will bring adverse effect on trade.Indonesia improve the import of garlic essential filing and apply for quota,And only from three port imported.The United States continue to switch to the problems of poultry delaying tactics.These are increased my enterprise to expand export difficulty.

　　在这种严峻的形势下，政府、行业和企业齐心协力，加大了对贸易救济和技术壁垒的应对力度。今年5月，欧委会决定终止对华大豆蛋白产品反倾销调查。6月份，世贸组织专家组裁定，美国在对中国输美暖水虾反倾销调查中使用归零方法计算被调查企业倾销幅度的做法违反了《WTO反倾销协定》，不符合世贸组织规则，中国获得全面胜诉。

In this serious situation,The government/Industry and enterprise make concerted effort,The increase of trade relief and technical barriers to strength.In may this year,The European commission decided to terminate the anti-dumping investigation of soybean protein products in China.June,The world trade organization (wto) panel ruling,In the United States to China lose beautiful warm water shrimp anti-dumping investigation using zero method to calculate the margin of dumping investigation enterprise has violated[WTO anti-dumping agreement],Does not conform to the wto rules,China has fully recover.

　　加大支持促进发展

Increase support for promoting development

　　加大对农产品行业的政策支持力度。目前，农产品、食品质量安全问题成为国外攻击“中国制造”的一个重点。农业劳动生产率相对较低，对出口成本上涨的消化能力偏弱，且中小企业数量众多。我们建议，政府部门在出口示范基地、专业市场、海外营销网络建设中，从落实“三农”政策及稳定农产品出口出发，适当增加出口示范基地、专业市场的申报名额，在政策、资金等方面对农产品出口基地和专业市场加大支持力度。

Strengthen the agricultural industry policy support.At present,Agricultural products/Food quality security problems become foreign attack"Made in China"One of the focuses of.Agricultural labor productivity is relatively low,Export costs to the digestive ability of weak,And small and medium-sized enterprise numerous.We suggest that,Government departments in export demonstration base/Professional market/Overseas marketing network construction,From the implementation of"Agriculture, countryside and farmers"Policy and stability on agricultural product export,Appropriate increase export demonstration base/The professional market quota,In the policy/The capital and other areas to the agricultural products export base and professional market increase support.

　　尽快推广进出口食品、农产品安全监管新模式。我们建议以风险分析为基础，以落实企业质量主体责任为主线，以检验检疫监管验证结果为放行依据，全面转变出口食品农产品“批批查验”模式，大幅降低抽检比例。我们还建议政府部门进一步降低检验检验费用，扩大全额免收检验检疫费的范围，对蔬菜产品、畜禽产品实施全额免收检验检疫费。

Promotion of import and export food as soon as possible/Agricultural products safety supervising new mode.We propose to risk analysis as the foundation,To implement the quality of enterprise's main body responsibility as the main line,The results are verified by inspection and quarantine supervision for release basis,Comprehensive transformation of agricultural products export food"Pp: batch batch inspection"mode,Greatly reduced sampling proportion.We also suggest the government departments to further reduce the inspection inspection fee,Expand the sum will be exempted from inspection quarantine fee range,For vegetable products/Livestock and poultry products full implementation will be exempted from inspection quarantine fee.

　　建立促进农产品贸易的专项资金。

Establish promote agricultural product trade special funds.

　　欧美等国家为促进农产品国际营销建立了专项基金。由于世贸组织禁止对农产品出口进行直接补贴，发达国家通常会资助农产品行业组织，由行业组织来实施市场开拓和应对贸易壁垒工作。例如，美国国家财政预算安排农产品海外市场开拓资金相当于美国农产品出口额的1%。美国大豆协会每年经费为1000万美元，在中国设立了两个办事处，每年举办各种活动，推销美国大豆。2011年7月，欧委会共批准了13个成员国的26个农产品海外促销项目，总金额为7510万欧元。促销的农产品涉及葡萄酒、水果、蔬菜、奶及奶制品、橄榄油、蛋、肉等产品，而目前我国尚缺乏支持农产品贸易的专项资金。

Europe and the United States and other countries to promote agricultural product international marketing set up special fund.Due to the world trade organization (wto) prohibit the use of agricultural product export direct subsidies,Developed countries will usually support agricultural industry organization,The industry organization to the implementation of the market development and deal with trade barriers work.For example,The United States state budget arrangement agricultural products overseas market development funds is equivalent to 1% of U.S. agricultural products exports.The American soybean association funds every year to $10 million,In China, with its two offices,All sorts of activities held every year,Sell us soybean.In July 2011,The European commission approved by a total of 13 members of the 26 agricultural products overseas promotion project,Total amount for 75.1 million euros.The promotion of agricultural products involved in wine/fruit/vegetables/Milk and dairy products/Olive oil/egg/Meat products,But at present our country still lack of support of the agricultural products trade special funds.

　　目前，我国农产品出口企业中，出口额在1000万美元以上的企业不到1400家，占全国农产品出口企业总数量的7%。多数农产品出口企业是中小企业和小微企业，正面临融资难、转型难、订单向大企业转移等诸多问题。我国的农产品贸易的行业组织在行业服务体系建设中得到的政府资金支持相对较少，这限制了行业的服务能力。建议政府部门建立促进农产品贸易的专项资金，支持行业协会组织企业开拓市场、应对贸易摩擦以及转型升级。

At present,Our country agricultural product export enterprises,In exports of more than us $10 million less than 1400 enterprise,Accounts for the agricultural product export enterprise total number of 7%.Most of the agricultural product export enterprise is small and medium-sized enterprises and small micro enterprise,Is facing difficulty in financing/Transformation difficult/Order to the big company transfer, and many other problems.The trade of agricultural produce in China industry organizations in industry service system construction in the government financial support relatively less,This limits the industry service capacity.Suggest the government departments establish promote agricultural products trade special funds,Support industry associations enterprise to expand the market/To deal with trade friction and the transformation and upgrading.