这些年人民币升值已经导致出口业成本增加，利润被进一步削薄，使出口产品失去国际竞争力，许多企业处于倒闭的边缘、甚至已经倒闭。因此中国出口业已“被逼”到转型的关键时刻，必须将由劳动密集型产业转向技术服务型，甚至高科技服务型产业。

During these years the appreciation of the renminbi have led to increase exports cost,Profit be further cut thin,Make export product lose international competitiveness,Many enterprises in the edge of collapse/Even have failed.Therefore China's exports have been"Be compelled"To the transformation of the critical moment,Must be the labor intensive industry steering technology service,Even high-tech service industry.

　　上篇谈到，在“第四轮中美战略经济论坛”上，有鉴于当前复杂的世界经济形势，中美两国之间的贸易和汇率问题成为交流的焦点。美国再次急切地敦促中国：人民币必须加速升值的步伐。但是，如果人民币再进一步升值的话，将对中国经济产生巨大的影响。

Retrospection about,in"The fourth china-us strategic economic BBS"on,In view of the current complex world economic situation,Trade between China and the United States and exchange rate problems become the focus of the communication.The United States urged China to eagerly:RMB must speed up the pace of appreciation.but,If the yuan appreciation further words,China's economy will have a huge impact.

　　首先，由于目前人民币还不能自由兑换，出口美国的商品只能用美元结算，加上定价权在美国手中，于是，人民币升值的显著结果就是同一商品在两国间产生了不同的价格。其实，美元只是对外贬值，而人民币实际上是对内贬值，所以一进一出，自然就形成了美国物价低的现象。这个情况在其他国家也类似。

First of all,Because at present the yuan is not convertible,Exports to the United States goods can only use dollar settlement,Plus pricing in the United States hand,so,The appreciation of the renminbi significant result is the same goods between the two countries produced different prices.In fact,Dollars just foreign devaluation,While the yuan is actually inside depreciation,So a into a,Naturally formed the United States prices low phenomenon.The situation in other countries also similar.

　　而粮食、水资源以及发展经济所需的石油、钢铁等大宗商品的定价权，也都掌控在美国华尔街的手中，保证了美国人长期享受低通胀的美好生活。而美联储最大的任务，就是将美国核心通胀率控制在2%的范围内。近20年来，美国物价波动极小。但反观中国，近30年来平均通胀率已达5%到6%的水平，而民众普遍感受到的物价升幅则更高。

The grain/Water resources and economic development for oil/To determine the price of iron and steel and other commodities,Are control in the United States the hands of Wall Street,To ensure the long-term americans enjoy low inflation of a better life.And the federal reserve's largest task,The United States is the core inflation of 2% in the control range.Nearly 20 years,The United States price fluctuation minimum.But in China,Nearly 30 years the average inflation rate has reached 5% to 6% level,And citizens generally feel price increase is higher.

　　在过去的2011年中，人民币兑美元大约上升了5%左右。这一汇率波动使我们的决策者面临两难的境遇：人民币太强的话，出口将变得更昂贵；如果人民币太弱了，进口导致的通胀上升就会削弱本币的购买力。

In the last 2011 years,Against the dollar gained about 5%.The exchange rate fluctuations make our decision makers face dilemma situation:RMB is too strong words,Export will become more expensive;If the RMB is too weak,Import to rising inflation will weaken the purchasing power of the local currency.

　　其次，我们必须要警惕，美国每一次发生经济危机后，最终都是依靠向外转嫁而度过的，特别是这几十年，一般都先从汇率下手，逼升想转嫁危机国家的货币汇率，如二三十年前的日币，然后再以通缩来休养生息。而在短期内，由于失去了美国这个经济火车头，全球经济难免步入低增长和衰退期，特别是倚赖出口带动经济增长的国家。

secondly,We must be vigilant,The United States every happened after the economic crisis,Ultimately depend on outward shifting and spend,Especially the tens of years,Usually the first rate laid hands on him,Forced rise to crisis export country's currency,Twenty or thirty years ago as the Japanese yen,Then by deflation to rehabilitate.And in the short term,Because of lost the United States this economic locomotive,The global economy is stepping into low growth and decline,Especially in export drive economic growth of the country.

　　由于中国出口产品普遍属于劳动密集型，利润本来就不高，这些年人民币升值已经导致出口业成本增加，利润被进一步削薄，使出口产品失去国际竞争力，许多企业处于倒闭的边缘、甚至已经倒闭。因此中国出口业已“被逼”到转型的关键时刻，必须将由劳动密集型产业转向技术服务型，甚至高科技服务型产业。

Because of China's export products generally belongs to the labor-intensive,Profit was not high,During these years the appreciation of the renminbi have led to increase exports cost,Profit be further cut thin,Make export product lose international competitiveness,Many enterprises in the edge of collapse/Even have failed.Therefore China's exports have been"Be compelled"To the transformation of the critical moment,Must be the labor intensive industry steering technology service,Even high-tech service industry.

　　但这种转型绝非一朝一夕就能完成，未来10年对中国来说，肯定是异常痛苦的转型期。而高通胀又使得人力成本和地价随之提高。在这儿特别要提一提上海英特尔。

But this kind of transformation is not accomplished overnight,The next 10 years for the Chinese,Must be abnormal pain transformation.But high inflation and makes human cost and land price along with it enhancement.Here particularly want to mention Shanghai Intel.

　　英特尔是1994年11月进驻浦东外高桥保税区的，是第一家开设大型生产企业的外资公司，而 2010 年第一季度，英特尔决定彻底关闭上海工厂，全厂搬迁成都。英特尔为何要搬迁？因为上海地价太高了。成都的人力成本、土地使用都比上海便宜，外国资本原本就是冲廉价劳力而来的，你的廉价优势不在了，我为什么要待在原地死守呢？

Intel is in November 1994 in pudong waigaoqiao free trade zone,Is the first to open a large production enterprise of foreign investment company,and 2010 In the first quarter of,Intel decided to completely closed Shanghai factory,The removal chengdu.Intel why want to move?Because Shanghai land price is too high.Chengdu human cost/Land use than Shanghai cheap,Foreign capital was rushed to cheap Labour and come,Your cheap advantage not,Why should I stay in situ instead?

　　英特尔西进成都后，至少有上百家英特尔的相关企业要迁出浦东。这些企业大致分为两类，一类是英特尔的全球供应商，英特尔走到哪儿，他们就跟到哪儿；另一类是上海本地企业，他们专做英特尔的供货商或物流，英特尔西迁之后，他们只能关门大吉。由于半导体是密集型产业，英特尔这一巨头撤离而去，其他企业肯定陆续迁出。上海英特尔所反映的，是中国经济面临问题的冰山一角。

Intel west after chengdu,At least hundreds of Intel's related enterprises should check out of pudong.The enterprise can be divided into two types,One kind is Intel global suppliers,Intel go to,They like to;Another kind is the Shanghai local enterprise,They only do Intel's suppliers or logistics,Intel after moved westward,They can only put up the shutters.Due to the semiconductor is intensive industry,Intel this giant evacuation and go,Other enterprise must move out of in succession.Shanghai Intel reflects,Is China's economy is facing the tip of the iceberg.

　　与此同时，欧美国家政府则积极鼓励企业、特别是制造业回归故土，以提高本国的就业率。比如苹果除了斥资5亿美元在北卡罗来纳州建立数据中心，还将iPhone 4和iPhone 4S的内部芯片放在三星的得州工厂制造。而对许多在中国设有“生产车间”的德国企业来说，向中国转移的时代也已经过去，由于中国日渐上升的成本，特别是大幅上升的土地成本，中国已不属于价格优势地区。更由于法国政坛的“变天”，将导致欧元区两大经济巨头产生巨大的分歧，法国新总统奥特朗不赞成财政紧缩，而德国则坚持财政纪律下促增长，看来要不了多久，将不是希腊等南欧国家退出欧元区，而是要谈德国是否会退出欧元区了。

meanwhile,Europe and the United States government has actively encourage enterprise/Especially manufacturing his return,In order to improve its employment.Such as apples in addition to spend $500 million to establish data centre in north Carolina,Will also iPhone 4 and iPhone 4 s internal chip on samsung Texas factory.For many in China have"Production workshop"For the German enterprise,Transferring to China times has in the past,Because of China's increasingly rising cost,Especially the land cost rise sharply,China has not belong to the price advantage area.More because of French politics"restoration",The eurozone will lead to two big economic giant produce great differences,France's new President, lang did not approve of austerity,But Germany insist that the fiscal discipline to promote growth,Before long it seems,Will not be Greece, southern Europe countries out of the euro zone,But to talk about Germany will exit the euro zone.

　　多年来，欧元、人民币都是美国打击的对象，欧元贬值或消失将使美元恢复强势，而逼人民币升值可使美国制造业回归，这些都是美国乐于见到的事。欧元是对美元世界货币地位构成威胁的最有力的对手，但是欧元的悲惨现状大家都有目共睹。当今能与美元相提并论的货币也就只有欧元、人民币、日元，以及国际货币基金组织的特别提款权（SDR）等。特别提款权并不是一种货币，它并不用于贸易的报价和结算，也不用于私人金融交易。而日元更不可能担任起挑战美元的重任。

For many years,euro/The yuan is the object of the attack,Depreciation of the euro or disappear will make a strong dollar recovery,And forced appreciation of the RMB can make the United States manufacturing regression,These are the United States like to see things.The euro against the dollar is the world monetary status pose a threat the most powerful opponent,But the euro's miserable situation everyone be obvious to all.Today's can against the dollar in euro currency will only/RMB/yen,And the international monetary fund's Special Drawing Rights(SDR), etc.Special Drawing Rights and is not a currency,It is not to be used for trade offer and settlement,Don't for private financial transactions.But the yen as more impossible since the burden of the challenge the dollar.

　　由于美元的特殊地位，美元在每一次危机之时，生命力会变得更强。目前，还没有哪一种货币能够取代或挑战美元的霸主地位。

Because of the dollar's special status,Dollars in every crisis when the,Life will become stronger.At present,Still no one currency to replace or challenge dollar supremacy.

　　首先，全球贸易体系中，虽然欧元、人民币在跨境贸易结算中占据一席之地，但美元结算毕竟仍占绝大多数，鉴于保持出口竞争优势以及潜在的汇率损失，没有贸易商愿意率先放弃美元结算。就如欧佩克一直试图摆脱石油美元，但现在仍是以美元计价。其次，在全球外汇交易中，据国际清算银行数据，目前美元占85%的份额，较2004年的88%仅下降3个百分点。最后也是最重要的一点，截至2009年，在全球汇率体系中有54个国家盯住美元，只有27个国家盯住欧元。

First of all,The global trading system,Although the euro/RMB in cross-border trade settlement in the seville,But the dollar settlement after all continue to account for the vast majority,In view of keep export competitive advantage and potential loss of the exchange rate,No traders willing to give up the dollar settlement.As Opec has been trying to get rid of petrodollars,But now is still in U.S. currency.secondly,In the global foreign exchange transactions,According to the bank for international settlements data,At present 85% share of $,A 88% in 2004 to only decreased by 3%.The last and most important point,By the end of 2009,In the global exchange rate system in 54 countries pegged to the dollar,Only 27 countries pegged to the euro.

　　未来的世界确实有可能是一个多种国际货币共存的世界。但不管如何，美元目前所具有的在位货币的优势，将使得美元在未来很长一段时间内仍将保持优势。

The world of the future may indeed is a variety of international monetary coexistence of the world.But no matter how,The dollar has the advantage of in currency,$will make in the future for a long time will still keep advantage.

　　文/陈思进

Text/Chen into

　　作者简介

Author introduction

　　Introduction

Introduction

　　加拿大皇家银行风险管理部资深顾问。多家一线财经媒体专栏作家，央视大型纪录片《华尔街》顾问。曾任瑞信证券部助理副总裁、美银证券公司副总裁等。著有专著《金融让谁富有》和《美国凭什么》、长篇小说《绝情华尔街》和《共舞华尔街》（即将出版）、金融时评随笔集《华尔街金融真相》和《看懂财经新闻的第一本书》，及长篇传记《闯荡北美》和《独闯华尔街》等。

Royal bank of Canada risk management department senior adviser.Several a line the financial media columnist,CCTV large documentary[Wall Street]consultant.Once RenRuiXin bond department assistant vice President/Banc of America securities company vice President, etc.Have the book[Financial let who rich]and[The United States with what]/novel[Heartless Wall Street]and[Wall Street dance](forthcoming)/Financial situation sketchbook[The Wall Street financial truth]and[Understand financial news first book],And long biography[Make North America]and[Lone striker Wall Street], etc.