尽管新榨季食糖消费有望转好，预期进口量也将大幅下降，但历史次高的产量会使国内库存维持在高位，从而带给糖价持续的压力。

Although the new would sugar consumption is expected to get better,Imports will be expected to drop considerably,But history next to the output will make domestic inventories remain high,In order to bring TangJia continuous pressure.

　　新榨季国内产量或超1400万吨 

New would domestic production or exceeds 14 million tons 

　　2011/2012榨季超过500元/吨的糖料收购价格好于多数争地作物的收益，实际上促使了新榨季食糖主产区广西糖料蔗种植面积的大幅增加，而且2012年风调雨顺的年景也带给糖料良好的生长条件。经过近期大量实地样本采集和测算，我们认为，新榨季广西甘蔗单产将出现大幅度的反弹，换算成食糖产量，接近900万吨。

2011/2012 would more than 500 yuan/tons of sugar purchasing price better than most to reclaim land crop yields,Actually prompted new guangxi sugar cane sugar would the main planting area of greatly increased,And in 2012 the good crop weather year also bring sugar good growth condition.After the recent a large number of field specimen collection and calculation,We think,Guangxi cane yield new would will be greatly rebound,Conversion into sugar production,Close to 9 million tons.

　　同时，云南产区甘蔗种植面积增加幅度高达40万亩，预计食糖产量将恢复至210万吨以上，而广东产区产量估计在135万吨，再加上全国甜菜糖110万—115万吨的产量，新榨季全国食糖总产量预计增至1400万吨，达到历史次高位，增幅为22%，其中广西产量占比64%。

At the same time,Yunnan region sugarcane area increase rate is as high as 400000 mu,Sugar is expected to yield will restore to 2.1 million tons,And guangdong region production estimated at 1.35 million tons,Plus the beet sugar 1.1 million - 1.15 million tons of production,The new national sugar production would increase is expected to 14 million tons,To achieve high historical times,Growth was 22%,The guangxi production accounted for more than 64%.

　　消费转向增长，进口将大幅下滑 

Consumption to increase,Imports will decline substantially 

　　产量的大幅增加带给新榨季巨大的供应压力，然而进口量下降的预期和消费的恢复性增长将缓释部分压力。2011/2012榨季初市场曾预期全国食糖消费量达到1400万吨，然而在含糖食品产量下降以及替代品抢占消费份额的双重影响下，实际的消费量估计只有1280万吨。前期糖厂的惜售演化成后期高企的库存，这使得2011/2012榨季的期末库存增幅成为近十年来最高的一次，而超预期的库存水平致使2011/2012榨季的库存消费比较上一榨季提升了二十多个百分点。

Yield increase would bring new huge supply pressure,However imports down expectations and consumption restorative growth will slow release part of the pressure.At the beginning of the 2011/2012 would have expected the national sugar consumption market reached 14 million tons,However, in the sugar food production decline and substitute take consumption share of the double influence,The actual consumption is estimated to be 12.8 million tons.The sugar mill of the evolution of the late contract-signing into high inventory,This makes 2011/2012 final inventory growth would be nearly 10 years to the highest one,And super expected inventory level the 2011/2012 would inventory consumption comparison on one would promote the more than 20 percentage points.

　　刚刚发布的三季度经济数据显示，出口增速超预期，消费、投资、工业增加值都出现止跌回升。如果宏观经济已经见底，食糖产业链中下游适度的库存回补行为是可以期待的。此外，玉米价格跌幅远远小于食糖，淀粉糖的替代优势也正在弱化。新榨季食糖消费在连续三年下滑后将出现回升，达到1350万吨以上的水平。

Just released economic data shows that the third quarter,Export growth than expected,consumption/investment/Industrial added value reason in back.If the macro economy has seen bottom,Sugar industry chain in the middle and lower reaches of moderate inventory covering behavior is to be expected.In addition,Corn prices fall far less sugar,Starch sugar alternative advantages are also weakening.New would sugar consumption in three years in a row after the downturn will be back,Reach 13.5 million tons level.

　　虽然国际糖价已经处于相对低位，但国内糖价的低迷使得进口利润微乎其微。据了解，至今未有明年的大量进口订单出现。预计新榨季食糖进口量会大幅下滑至120万吨，国产糖重新占据国内食糖供应的垄断地位。

Although international TangJia has been in a relatively low,But the domestic TangJia downturn makes imports little profit.It is understood,So far no next year a large number of import order appear.Is expected to new would sugar imports will fell sharply to 1.2 million tons,Domestic sugar to occupy the domestic sugar supply monopoly position.

　　尽管消费重新回到增长通道、进口量大幅下滑，然而由于内生性供应的增加超过需求的增长，新榨季国内食糖库存将继续累积，库存消费比将接近60%的历史最高位置。同样值得指出的是，2013年的高库存主要集中在国家储备，考虑到地方储备在内的储备总量将超过400万吨。由于产量大幅增加，新榨季的工业库存将持续高于同期，但中下游对食糖的接货需求增长将扩大销售量。

Although consumption returned to growth channel/Imports fell sharply,However, due to the increase of endogenous supply over demand growth,New would domestic sugar stock will continue to accumulate,Inventory consumption ratio will be close to 60% of the highest position.Also, as noted,2013 years of high inventory mainly concentrated in the national reserve,Considering the local reserves, will be more than 4 million tons of reserves.Due to production sharply increased,New would industrial stock will continue to higher than the same period,But in the middle and lower reaches of the sugar to pick up cargo demand growth will expand sales.

　　供需格局制约之下，明年将成为行业压力最重的一年，糖价阶段性成本线下运行会成为现实。不过，糖料价格的下滑和糖厂转向积极销售也会逐步消化供应过剩带来的悲观情绪，预计糖业这个强周期行业也会从明年开始慢慢走出困境。

Supply and demand structure under restricted,Next year will be the heaviest pressure industry a year,TangJia stage cost offline operation will become a reality.but,Sugar price declines and sugar mill to active sales will also gradually digestion oversupply brings pessimism,Sugar industry is expected to the strong cycle industry will also starting from next year slowly out.