一、2012年前三季度中国对外贸易发展情况 

a/The third quarter 2012 years ago China's foreign trade development situation 

　　今年以来，国际金融危机深层次影响继续显现，特别是欧洲主权债务危机深化、蔓延，世界经济复苏明显减速，国际市场需求下滑。中国经济下行压力加大，截至三季度，国内生产总值(GDP)增速连续7个季度放缓。对外贸易发展面临的内外部环境复杂严峻，进出口增速下滑至个位数，进出口企业困难增多。针对形势变化，中国政府及时出台一系列促进外贸稳定增长、优化外贸结构的政策措施，提振了企业信心，对外贸走势趋稳发挥了重要作用。前三季度，中国对外贸易运行呈现以下特点：

Since this year,The international financial crisis deep influence continue revealed,Especially the European sovereign debt crisis deepening/spread,The world economic recovery slows significantly,Decline in demand in the international market.China's economic downward pressure increasing,By the third quarter,GDP(GDP)For seven consecutive quarter slowdown in growth.The development of foreign trade faced with internal and external environments of complicated severe,Import and export growth to single-digit decline,Import and export enterprises more difficult.According to the changing situation,The Chinese government timely series of promote the steady growth of foreign trade/Optimize the structure of foreign trade policy measures,Boost the enterprise confidence,On foreign trade trends stabilised played an important role.The first three quarters,China's foreign trade operation show the following features:

　　(一)进出口增速低位趋稳，“稳外贸”措施初见成效。前三季度，进出口总额28424.7亿美元，同比增长6.2%。其中出口14953.9亿美元，增长7.4%，比上年同期回落15.3个百分点；进口13470.8亿美元，增长4.8%，回落21.9个百分点；贸易顺差1483.1亿美元，增长39.1%。分季度看，一、二、三季度进出口分别增长7.2%、8.5%和3%。在国际市场需求有所回升、前期出台的“稳外贸”政策措施逐步落实等因素带动下，9月份进出口增速低位反弹，出口增速从8月的2.7%回升至9.9%，进口从8月的下降2.6%转为增长2.4%，当月进出口和出口规模均创历史新高。

(a)Import and export growth low stabilised,"Stable foreign trade"Measures produced results.The first three quarters,The total import and export volume of $2.84247 trillion,Year-on-year growth of 6.2%.The export of $1.49539 trillion,Growth of 7.4%,Than the same period last year dropped 15.3%;Imported 1.34708 trillion us dollars,Growth of 4.8%,A drop of 21.9%;The trade surplus of $148.31 billion,Growth of 39.1%.Points quarter see,a/two/Import and export of the third quarter growth of 7.2%, respectively/8.5% and 3%.In the international market demand have rebounded/Early on the introduction of the"Stable foreign trade"Policies and measures gradually implement driven by factors such as,September import and export growth low rebound,Export growth of 2.7% from August back up to 9.9%,Import from August drop 2.6% to 2.4% growth,The import and export and export scale new highs.

　　(二)机电产品出口比重稳步提高，出口商品结构继续优化。前三季度，机电产品出口8548.3亿美元，增长8.3%，高出同期整体出口增速0.9个百分点，占出口比重从上年同期的56.7%提高至57.2%。高新技术产品出口4240.6亿美元，增长6.4%，其中手机、集成电路分别增长18.1%和46.9%。劳动密集型产品出口增速放缓，其中纺织品、服装、家具、鞋类、箱包、塑料制品、玩具等七大类劳动密集型产品出口增长7%，低于整体出口增速0.4个百分点。“两高一资”产品出口继续下降，煤和成品油出口量分别下降38.6%和9.8%。

(two)Mechanical and electrical products export proportion improved steadily,Export commodity structure continues to optimization.The first three quarters,Mechanical and electrical products export $854.83 billion,Growth of 8.3%,The same period more than 0.9% overall export growth,Accounted for the proportion of export from the same period last year of 56.7% to 57.2%.Exports of high-tech products of $424.06 billion,Growth of 6.4%,With mobile phones/Integrated circuit up by 18.1% and 46.9% respectively.Labor-intensive products export growth is slowing,The textile/clothing/furniture/footwear/bags/Plastic products/Toys seven kind of labor-intensive products 7% export growth,Less than 0.4% of the whole export growth."Two higher information"The products are exported to continue to fall,Coal and petroleum products exports were down by 38.6% and 9.8%.

　　(三)对发达国家出口明显分化，对新兴市场出口总体增长较快。随着美国经济温和复苏，零售市场回暖，前三季度中国对美国出口2581.6亿美元，增长9.6%。受欧盟经济陷入衰退、市场需求明显萎缩影响，中国对欧盟出口2504.6亿美元，下降5.6%。对日本出口1125.1亿美元，增长4.5%。由于新兴经济体经济增长相对较快，以及出口企业深入推进市场多元化，中国对新兴经济体出口总体保持快速增长势头，其中对东盟、俄罗斯和南非出口额分别为1447亿美元、325.8亿美元和107.2亿美元，增长16.6%、14.5%和10.8%。前三季度，中国自美国和欧盟进口分别增长7.7%和2.1%，自日本进口下降6.5%。

(three)In the developed countries, the export obvious differentiation,Emerging market exports overall is growing rapidly.As the U.S. economy's moderate recovery,Retail market thaw,China's exports to the United States in the first three quarters of 258.16 billion dollars,Growth of 9.6%.By the eu economy into a recession/The market demand atrophy to significantly affect,China's exports to Europe 250.46 billion dollars,Fell by 5.6%.Japan exports to $112.51 billion,Growth of 4.5%.Due to the emerging economies' economic growth relatively fast,And export enterprise advancing the market diversification,China's emerging economies' exports general maintained a rapid growth momentum,Among the asean/Russia and South Africa exports for $144.7 billion, respectively/$32.58 billion and $10.72 billion,Growth of 16.6%/14.5% and 10.8%.The first three quarters,China from the United States and the European Union imports up by 7.7% and 2.1% respectively,Since Japan imports fell by 6.5%.

　　(四)民营企业进出口势头良好，一般贸易增速持续快于加工贸易。在鼓励民营经济发展政策措施的引导下，广大民营进出口企业积极调整产品结构，努力拓展营销渠道，深度开发国际市场，取得良好效果。前三季度，民营企业出口5515.2亿美元，增长19.2%；进口3264.6亿美元，增长18%，分别高于整体增幅11.8和13.2个百分点。外商投资企业出口7511.2亿美元，增长3.1%；进口6483.4亿美元，增长1.3%，分别较整体增幅低4.3和3.5个百分点；出口和进口占总体比重分别下降2.1和1.7个百分点。国有企业进出口增幅明显下滑，其中出口下降3.9%，进口仅增长0.9%。

(four)Private enterprises import and export good momentum,General trade growth for faster than processing trade.To encourage the development of the private economy under the guidance of policy measures,The private import and export enterprises to actively adjust the structure of products,Strive to expand marketing channels,The depth development of the international market,Achieve good effect.The first three quarters,Private enterprises to export 551.52 billion dollars,Growth of 19.2%;Imported 326.46 billion us dollars,Growth of 18%,Than overall growth respectively 11.8 and 13.2%.Foreign investment enterprises to export 751.12 billion dollars,Growth of 3.1%;Imported 648.34 billion us dollars,Growth of 1.3%,Were more overall growth low 4.3 and 3.5%;Exports and imports accounted for the proportion of overall decreased respectively 2.1 and 1.7%.State-owned enterprises import and export growth decline significantly,The exports fell by 3.9%,Imports rose by only 0.9%.

　　前三季度，一般贸易进出口14989.7亿美元，增长5.9%，其中出口7297.8亿美元，增长8.3%，进口7691.9亿美元，增长3.6%。加工贸易“两头在外”，受外部环境影响较大，进出口9829.4亿美元，增长2.2%，低于进出口总额增速4个百分点。其中出口6309.4亿美元，增长3%，占总体出口比重42.2%，比去年同期下降1.8个百分点；进口3520.0亿美元，增长1%，占总体进口比重26.1%，下降1个百分点。

The first three quarters,General trade import and export $1.49897 trillion,Growth of 5.9%,The export of $729.78 billion,Growth of 8.3%,Imported 769.19 billion us dollars,Growth of 3.6%.Processing trade"Two head out",The effect of exterior environment by larger,Import and export of $982.94 billion,Growth of 2.2%,Less than 4% of the total value of import and export growth.The export of $630.94 billion,Growth of 3%,Total exports accounted for the proportion of 42.2%,1.8% lower than the same period last year;Imported 352 billion us dollars,Growth of 1%,For general import a proportion of 26.1%,Fell by 1%.

　　(五)中西部地区出口持续快速增长，东部地区出口增速放缓。中西部地区承接加工贸易产业转移步伐加快，进、出口双双强劲增长，对外贸易区域布局进一步优化。前三季度，中、西部地区出口分别增长21.5%和43.4%，其中重庆增长1.5倍，甘肃、安徽、贵州、河南和四川分别增长83%、69.9%、68.9%、62.8%和42.8%。中、西部地区进口分别增长7.9%和13.2%，其中重庆、河南分别增长69%和64.2%。东部地区由于受国际市场需求放缓和生产成本上升冲击较大，出口仅增长4.3%，低于总体增速3.1个百分点，其中广东、江苏、浙江、北京分别增长6.4%、4%、3%和3.2%，上海和山东分别下降0.1%和0.2%。

(five)The Midwest sustained, rapid export growth,The eastern region slowdown in export growth.The Midwest undertake processing trade industry transfer to speed up the pace,into/Export both strong growth,Foreign trade area layout further optimization.The first three quarters,in/The western region export up by 21.5% and 43.4% respectively,The chongqing increased by 1.5 times,gansu/anhui/guizhou/Henan and sichuan growth of 83%, respectively/69.9%/68.9%/62.8% and 42.8%.in/The western region import up by 7.9% and 13.2% respectively,The chongqing/Henan up by 69% and 64.2% respectively.The eastern region because of the international market demand slow rise and production cost impact,Exports rose by only 4.3%,Less than 3.1% of the overall growth,The guangdong/jiangsu/zhejiang/Beijing growth of 6.4%, respectively/4%/3% and 3.2%,Shanghai and shandong were down by 0.1% and 0.2%.

　　(六)农产品进口快速增长，机电产品进口增速回落

(six)The fast growth of agricultural imports,Import of mechanical and electronic products down growth

　　前三季度，粮食和油料作物进口增长较快，其中谷物及谷物粉、大豆、食用植物油进口量分别增长2.3倍、17.7%和18.3%。能源资源进口有涨有跌，铁矿砂、原油、未锻造的铜及铜材、氧化铝进口量分别增长8.4%、6.4%、32.6%和2.1倍，成品油、原木、钢材进口量分别下降4.4%、10.8%和12%。机电产品和高新技术产品进口额分别增长2.7%和6.4%，增速分别比上年同期回落13.6和7.3个百分点，但汽车、飞机保持快速增长，进口量增速分别达23.6%和22.5%。

The first three quarters,Grain and oilseed crops import is growing rapidly,The grain and grain powder/soybean/Edible vegetable oil imports were increased by 2.3 times/17.7% and 18.3%.Energy resources import there are rises and falls,Iron ore/Crude oil/Not forging copper and copper/Alumina import growth of 8.4%, respectively/6.4%/32.6% and 2.1 times,product/log/Steel imports were down by 4.4%/10.8% and 12%.Mechanical and electrical products and new high-tech product imports up by 2.7% and 6.4% respectively,Growth respectively than the same period last year dropped 13.6 and 7.3%,But the car/The plane maintained a rapid growth,Import growth up to 23.6% and 22.5% respectively.

　　二、2012年全年中国对外贸易形势预测

two/In the whole year of 2012 China foreign trade situation forecast

　　近段时间以来，随着各国宏观政策力度加大，中国外贸发展面临国内外环境略有改善。美国房地产市场缓慢复苏，2012年前8个月新屋销量同比增长21.7%，且售价明显上扬；9月份失业率为7.8%，达2009年1月以来最低点。欧央行出台直接货币交易计划，欧洲稳定机制(ESM)启动，希腊新一轮救助计划谈判取得进展，暂时缓和了欧债危机形势，西班牙、意大利等外围国家国债收益率明显下降。主要发达经济体相继出台量化宽松政策，短期内起到压低国债收益率、降低债务成本的作用，将在一定程度上提振市场信心。一些新兴经济体也放松宏观经济政策，将对经济增长起到刺激作用。据摩根大通发布的数据，9月全球制造业采购经理人指数从8月的48.1小幅回升至48.9，表明世界经济下滑势头有所缓解。

In recent times,As countries strengthened macroeconomic policy,China's foreign trade development faces the domestic and foreign environment improve slightly.The United States real estate market slow recovery,2012 years ago 8 months new home sales year-on-year growth of 21.7%,And the price rise significantly;The unemployment rate is 7.8% in September,To low since January 2009.European central bank issued direct currency trading plan,European stability mechanism(ESM)start,Greek new rescue plan any progress in negotiations,Has abated for European debt crisis situation,Spain/Italy and other peripheral national Treasury yields decreased obviously.Major developed economies have issued quantitative easing policy,In the short term play down bond yields/To reduce the effect of debt costs,Will be in a certain extent boost market confidence.Some emerging economies also relax the macro economic policy,On economic growth will play a stimulation.According to jpmorgan chase release data,September global manufacturing purchasing managers' index from August 48.1 small picks up to 48.9,Indicates that the world economy has been slowed down.

　　中国经济增速趋于稳定，并且继续出现积极变化。9月份工业生产、商品零售、固定资产投资等指标增速均比8月有所提高；制造业采购经理人指数实现4个月以来首次回升，达49.8，接近50的荣枯线；消费者信心指数回升至100的荣枯线以上，达100.8。9月中旬，国务院办公厅出台促进外贸稳定增长的若干意见，在做好出口退税和金融服务、提高贸易便利化水平、改善贸易环境、优化贸易结构等方面提出了一系列具体政策措施，如扩大出口信用保险规模，提高通关效率，调减法定检验检疫目录，规范和减少进出口环节收费等。这些政策措施正在陆续落实到位，将强化前期出台的稳定外贸增长政策效果，进一步提振进出口企业特别是中小企业信心，缓解企业经营困难，推动外贸增长企稳趋升。

China's economic growth tends to be stable,And continue to appear positive changes.Industrial production in September/retail/Fixed assets investment growth index were increased more than 8 months;Manufacturing purchasing managers' index achieve 4 months for the first time since rebounded,49.8,Close to 50 vicissitude line;Consumer confidence index back up to 100 vicissitude line above,100.8.In the middle of September,The general office of the state council on promoting the stable growth of foreign trade some opinions,For export tax rebate and financial services/To improve the level of trade facilitation/Improve trade environment/trade structure optimization, it puts forward a series of specific policy measures,Such as expanding scale of export credit insurance,Improve customs clearance efficiency,To reduce legal inspection and quarantine directory,Standard and reduce import and export link charges and so on.These policies and measures are put in place in succession,Will strengthen the stability of the early on foreign trade growth policy effect,Further boost import and export enterprises especially small and medium-sized enterprise confidence,Ease enterprises face difficulties in their business operation,To promote foreign trade growth stabilises trending up.

　　同时也应看到，世界经济复苏动力仍然不足，外需低迷的态势难有根本好转。美国经济增长没有明显起色，个人消费增速仍低于危机前水平。欧元区核心国家经济走弱，重债国持续衰退，失业率屡创历史新高，严重制约消费能力和信心。日本地震灾后重建效应减退，出口形势恶化，经济增长还在减速。新兴经济体难与发达国家“脱钩”，增长普遍放慢。国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计，2012年世界经济将增长3.3%，低于2011年的3.8%。其中，发达国家增长1.3%，低于上年0.3个百分点；新兴市场和发展中国家增长5.3%，低于上年0.9个百分点，俄罗斯、印度、巴西和南非增长率均将低于2011年。世贸组织(WTO)预计，2012年全球贸易增长率为2.5%，远低于2011年的5%。加上针对中国产品的贸易摩擦大幅上升，中国外贸发展面临的外部环境依然极其复杂，实现进出口稳定回升还需付出巨大努力。

At the same time also should see,The world economic recovery power is still insufficient,Now the downturn situation difficult to have a fundamental turn for the better.The United States economic growth without obvious improvement,Personal consumption growth is still less than before the crisis level.The eurozone core national economic weakness,ChongZhaiGuo sustained recession,The unemployment rate hit a record high of repeatedly,Restricted consumption ability and confidence.Japan recover after the reconstruction effect decline,Export situation worse,Economic growth is slowing down.Emerging economies difficult with the developed countries"decoupling",Growth generally slow.The international monetary fund(IMF)Is expected to,In 2012, the world economy will increase by 3.3%,Less than 3.8% in 2011.the,The developed countries increased by 1.3%,Less than 0.3% last year;Emerging markets and developing countries increased by 5.3%,Less than 0.9% last year,Russia/India/Brazil and South Africa growth rate are to be lower than in 2011.The world trade organization (wto)(WTO)Is expected to,In 2012, global trade growth rate of 2.5%,Far below 5% in 2011.Plus for Chinese products trade friction to rise sharply,China's foreign trade development face external environment is still extremely complex,Achieve import and export stability picks up also needs to pay great effort.

　　综合考虑以上因素，预计2012年四季度进出口有望延续9月份的回升态势。在主要经济体对外贸易增速普遍放缓或负增长的情况下，中国占全球贸易的份额有望保持稳定或微幅上升。

Comprehensive consideration of the above factors,In 2012 the fourth quarter is expected to import and export is expected to continue September picks up trend.In the main economies foreign trade growth slowdown in common or negative growth of cases,China's share of world trade share is expected to remain stable or grow slightly.

　　三、2013年中国对外贸易发展环境分析

three/In 2013, the Chinese foreign trade development environment analysis

　　2013年，中国对外贸易发展面临的内外部环境可能略好于2012年，但制约外贸稳定回升的阻力依然存在。

In 2013,,China's foreign trade development facing the inside and outside environment may be slightly better in 2012,But restrict foreign trade stable picks up resistance still exist.

　　从国际看，随着各国宏观政策力度加大，欧债危机略有缓和，美国经济复苏态势趋于稳定，市场信心和发展预期有所提振，2013年全球经济发展环境可能有所改善。但发达国家主权债务问题削弱经济增长潜力，刺激经济政策措施的副作用日益凸显，新兴经济体面临的困难较多，加上贸易投资保护主义加剧，世界经济低增长、高风险态势不会明显改观。

See from the international,As countries strengthened macroeconomic policy,The debt crisis ease slightly,The United States economic recovery situation tends to be stable,Market confidence and development is expected to boost,In 2013 the global economy development environment may be improved.But the developed countries sovereign debt problem weakening economic growth potential,Economic stimulus policies and measures of the increasingly prominent side effects,Emerging economies are faced with the difficulty of more,With increased trade and investment protectionism,The world economy low growth/High risk situation will not change obviously.

　　一是全球经济增长动力依然不足。美欧日等发达经济体普遍需要持续紧缩财政，企业对新兴产业的投资短期内难以形成规模，宽松货币政策无法根本扭转有效需求不足的局面，加上失业率高企等制约，经济增长动力仍较疲弱。一些新兴经济体依赖能源资源出口、国际收支失衡等问题逐渐暴露，发展面临的风险上升，经济增速也在放缓。国际货币基金组织预计，2013年全球经济增长3.6%，低于金融危机前10年4%的平均水平；世贸组织预计，全球贸易量增长4.5%，明显低于危机前10年6%的平均水平。

One is the global economic growth power is still insufficient.The us and Europe, and other developed economies to need to continue the common fiscal austerity,The enterprise to emerging industry investment in the short term is difficult to form scale,Loose monetary policy cannot fundamentally torsional insufficient effective demand situation,With unemployment high restricted,Economic growth is still a weak power.Some emerging economies rely on energy resources export/Balance of payments imbalance problem exposed gradually,Facing the development of increased risk,Economic growth has also been weakening.The international monetary fund forecasts,Global economic growth in 2013 3.6%,Less than 10 years before the financial crisis the average of 4%;The world trade organization (wto) is expected to,Global trade growth of 4.5%,Obviously lower than before the crisis of 10 years 6% of the average level.

　　二是发达国家主权债务问题可能再起波澜。欧债危机既是欧洲货币联盟的制度危机，更是欧元区外围国家的竞争力危机。随着欧洲稳定机制启动和银行业联盟构想开始落实，欧元区制度设计的薄弱环节正在逐步加强，但外围国家不仅财政缺口大，而且产业基础相对薄弱，提高竞争力将是一个旷日持久的过程，其间若经济、政治形势恶化超出预期，可能在金融市场引起新的波动。2013年，欧元区外围国家融资需求依然高企，部分国家面临大选，对欧洲金融市场的影响值得密切关注。美国财政悬崖涉及金额约占GDP的4%，若处理不好，可能拖累美经济重返衰退。

The second is the developed countries sovereign debt problem may rise waves.The debt crisis is European monetary union system crisis,But also the eurozone peripheral national competitiveness crisis.As Europe stability mechanism start and banking alliance idea began to implement,The euro area the weak links of the system design is gradually strengthening,But peripheral countries not only the financial gap is so big,And industrial base relatively weak,To improve competitiveness will be a long process,In the event of economic/The political situation worse than expected,In financial markets may cause a new wave.In 2013,,The eurozone peripheral countries financing demand remains high,Some countries facing an election,In Europe of the influence of the financial market is worth paying close attention to.The United States financial cliff involves account for about 4% of GDP,If processes is not good,Beauty may drag the economy back to recession.

　　三是国际金融和商品市场仍可能持续动荡。近期美日欧等主要经济体均采取了量化宽松政策，澳大利亚、韩国、印度、巴西等也降息刺激经济，可能引发各国货币汇率频繁大幅波动，国际资本大规模跨境流动，冲击全球金融稳定。美国、俄罗斯等粮食主产地遭受重大干旱，导致全球小麦、玉米减产，中东地缘政治持续紧张极易冲击石油供应，加上全球货币政策宽松，投机资本涌入商品市场炒作牟利，农产品和能源价格面临较大上涨压力。

Three is the international financial and commodity markets could still turmoil.Recently the European and other major economies are adopted the quantitative easing policy,Australia/South Korea/India/Brazil and so on also to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy,Could cause currencies exchange rate fluctuations frequently,International capital large-scale cross-border flow,Impact global financial stability.The United States/Russia and other food leading to suffer great drought,Cause global wheat/Corn underproduction,The Middle East geopolitical continuous nervous easily impact oil supply,Coupled with global monetary policy loose,Speculative capital inflows commodity market hype profit,Agricultural products and energy prices rise with the great pressure.

　　四是贸易投资保护主义进一步加剧。在经济复苏没有明显起色的情况下，一些国家为缓解就业压力，对外采取部分关闭国内市场的办法，扶持本土产业，阻碍了正常的国际贸易投资活动。世贸组织监测，2011年10月至2012年5月，各成员共采取182项新贸易限制措施，影响全球进口额的0.9%，且限制措施应对危机的一面下降，刺激本国产业复兴的一面上升，影响更为深远。一些国家对新兴产业领域的跨国投资态度保守，想方设法加以限制。在选举政治的催化下，部分国家经贸政策甚至出现“去全球化”的危险倾向。

The fourth is trade and investment protectionism further intensifies.In the economic recovery under the condition of no significant improvement,Some countries in order to alleviate employment pressure,Foreign take part closed the domestic market measures,Support local industry,Hinder the normal international trade and investment activities.The world trade organization (wto) monitoring,In October 2011 to May 2012,A total of 182 members to new trade restrictions,Influence of global imports 0.9%,And restrictions coping with crisis side down,Stimulate domestic industrial recovery side up,More far-reaching influence.Some countries in emerging industries transnational investment attitude conservative,Try to limit.In the election of the political catalyst,Part of the national economic and trade policies appear even"To globalization"Dangerous tendency.

　　从国内看，随着一系列扩内需、稳外需政策措施逐步落实到位并发挥成效，中国经济运行总体平稳。党的十八大将进一步激发各方面加快发展的积极性，有利于继续推动经济平稳较快增长。国际货币基金组织等机构普遍预计，2013年中国经济增长将快于2012年。但经济企稳的基础还不稳固，国内需求增长受到一些体制机制因素的制约，部分行业产能过剩较为突出，企业生产经营仍然面临较多困难。

From domestic see,With a series of expanding domestic demand/Now stability policy measures to gradually put in place and effective play,China's economic operation overall smooth.The party's eighteen big will further stimulate the enthusiasm of all sides for accelerating development,To continue to promote stable and rapid economic growth.The international monetary fund organizations generally expected,In 2013, the Chinese economic growth will fast in 2012.But the economy stabilises foundation is not solid,Domestic demand growth by some factor of the systems and mechanisms,Part of the industry are more prominent, and the excess capacity,The production and operation of enterprises still face more difficulties.

　　国际国内的风险因素叠加，将对2013年中国外贸发展形成较大压力，突出表现在以下方面：

The international and domestic risk factors superposition,Will 2013 China foreign trade development form a larger pressure,Outstanding performance in the following respects:

　　一是外需不足的矛盾尚未根本缓解。在世界经济复苏态势疲软、风险持续高企的情况下，中国出口企业订单不足的问题依然突出，特别是短单、小单多，长单、大单少的局面还将持续。截至2012年9月，制造业采购经理人指数中的新出口订单指数连续4个月低于50的荣枯线；2012年前三季度加工贸易进口累计仅增长1%，表明未来一段时间出口难有大的反弹。商务部对国内1900余家外贸重点联系企业的调查结果显示，截至2012年9月，企业出口利润指数已连续5个月低于100的临界点。

One is the overseas market demand insufficient contradiction has not been fundamentally ease.In the world economic recovery situation weakness/Risk sustained high cases,China's export enterprise of a shortage of orders problems still outstanding,Especially short single/Small single more,Long single/Big single less situation will also continue.By September 2012,Manufacturing purchasing managers' index of new export orders index for four months less than 50 vicissitude line;2012 years ago the third quarter processing trade import accumulated rose by only 1%,Show that the future period of time export difficult to have big rebound.The ministry of commerce on domestic more than 1900 foreign trade enterprise key contact survey,By September 2012,Enterprises to export profit index has five consecutive months less than 100 critical point.

　　二是贸易摩擦的影响持续加大。中国是贸易保护主义的最大受害者。据英国智库经济政策研究中心(CEPR)的“世界贸易预警(World Trade Alert)”项目监测，2008年国际金融危机爆发以来，全球40%的贸易保护主义措施针对中国。随着中国出口产业从劳动密集型产业向新兴产业升级，国外对中国新兴产业出口的限制明显增多。2012年前三季度，中国出口产品遭遇国外贸易救济调查55起，增长38%，涉案金额243亿美元，增长近8倍。太阳能光伏电池在多个海外市场遭遇贸易摩擦，出口严重受阻。

The second is the influence of the trade friction continue to widen.China is the biggest victims trade protectionism.According to the British think-tank economic policy research center(CEPR)of"The world trade early warning(world trade Alert)"Project monitoring,2008 years since the outbreak of the international financial crisis,40% of the world's protectionist measures in China.With China's export industry from the labor-intensive industry to emerging industrial upgrading,Overseas for China's emerging industry to export restrictions increased obviously.The third quarter 2012 years ago,China's export products encounter foreign trade remedy investigation 55 up,Growth of 38%,Involving a value of $24.3 billion,Growth nearly 8 times.Solar photovoltaic battery in more than one overseas market encounter trade friction,Export seriously hindered.

　　三是转变外贸发展方式的任务更加紧迫。近年来，中国要素成本上升较快，在一定程度上削弱了制造业的成本竞争力。2008-2011年，制造业城镇单位就业人员平均工资年均增长14.5%，制造业农民工月收入年均增长15%。随着周边国家工业化发展加快，部分对成本较为敏感的产业和产品订单出现向周边国家转移迹象。2012年前7个月，中国七大类劳动密集型产品在美、欧、日市场份额比上年分别下降2.1、1.4和2.7个百分点，流失份额主要被周边低成本国家挤占。在外需下滑的同时，中国劳动密集型产品面临的国际竞争加剧，出口企业迫切需要加快培育技术、质量、品牌、服务等综合优势。

Three is to change the way of foreign trade development task more urgent.In recent years,China's rapid rise in the cost of elements,To a certain extent weakened the manufacturing cost competitiveness.2008-2011,Manufacturing town unit obtain employment staff average wages grew at an average annual rate of 14.5%,Manufacturing monthly income of migrant workers the average annual growth of 15%.Along with the neighboring countries to speed up the industrialization development,Part of the cost is relatively sensitive products and industries in order to neighboring countries sign transfer.2012 years ago seven months,China's seven major kind of labor-intensive products in the United States/the/Market share, compared with last year fell 2.1 respectively/1.4 and 2.7%,Loss share is mainly surrounding low cost country occupy.Decline in overseas market demand at the same time,Chinese labor-intensive products face international competition,The export enterprises urgently need to speed up the cultivation technology/quality/brand/Service and so on comprehensive advantages.

　　应当看到，党的十六大以来的十年，是中国货物贸易发展最快的十年，进出口贸易额年均增长超过20%。2011年出口额占全球比重10.4%，连续三年居全球之首；进口额占9.5%，连续三年全球第二。随着国内外环境的深刻变化，中国外贸可能难以再现前些年的持续高速增长。

Should see,Since the 16th CPC national congress ten years,Is China's trade in goods the fastest growing ten years,Import and export trade grew at an average annual rate of more than 20%.In 2011 the global exports account for the proportion of 10.4%,Three years in a row of the world;Imports accounted for 9.5%,Continuous three years the world's second.With the profound change of the environment at home and abroad,China's foreign trade may be difficult to reproduce the sustainable growth of many.

　　针对严峻复杂的国内外环境，中国对外贸易政策应继续着力于稳增长、调结构、促平衡。一方面，立足当前，密切跟踪形势变化，确保已出台的各项政策措施落实到位，帮助企业克服订单不足、成本升高、摩擦增多等困难，努力将外部环境变化的不利影响降至最低程度，全力以赴稳定外贸增长。另一方面，着眼长远，充分利用市场环境趋紧形成的倒逼机制，加快转变外贸发展方式，培育外贸竞争新优势，大力开拓新兴市场，加快建设外贸转型升级基地、贸易促进平台和国际营销网络，增强外贸长远发展后劲。同时，完善进口政策，搭建更多进口促进平台，积极扩大国内短缺的先进技术设备、关键零部件以及部分供应偏紧商品的进口，促进对外贸易平衡发展。

According to the severe complex environment at home and abroad,China's foreign trade policy should continue to focus on steady growth/Adjustable structure/Promote balance.On the one hand,Based on the current,Closely tracking the situation changes,Ensure that has already issued various policy measures put in place,Help enterprises to overcome the shortage of orders/Rising cost of/Friction increasing difficulty, etc,Efforts will external environment change the adverse effect of the drop to the lowest degree,Go all out foreign trade growth stability.On the other hand,With long-term,Make full use of market environment formed a tightening DaoBi mechanism,Accelerate transformation of the foreign trade development mode,Cultivate new foreign trade competition advantage,Vigorously develop new market,Speed up the construction of the foreign trade the transformation and upgrading of base/trade promotion platform and international marketing network,Enhance foreign trade long-term development in the future.At the same time,Perfect import policy,Build more import promote platform,Actively expand domestic shortage of advanced technology and equipment/The key parts and components and parts supply partial tight goods imported,Promote balanced development of foreign trade.