2011年2月以来，国内棉花价格一路走低，最大跌幅接近50% 

Since February 2011,Domestic cotton prices dropping,Biggest fall close to 50% 

　　如果未来6年中国不进口任何棉花会是什么情况？最新预测显示，中国今年收获新棉花库存量将攀升至约900万吨，这个库存能弥补未来6年的消费缺口，全球棉花本棉季的贸易有望下降21%。截至目前，中国国储收购的新年度棉花已经接近300万吨。

If the next six years China does not import any cotton: what is it?The latest forecasts suggest that,This year China harvest new cotton stocks to rise to about 9 million tons,The inventory can make up for the next six years of consumption gap,Global cotton this cotton season trade is expected to fall 21%.So far,The Chinese national store the acquisition of New Year cotton has close to 3 million tons.

　　国际棉花在2011年3月创下每磅2.197美元的历史最高价，而今年它在标准普尔GSCI现货指数追踪的24种大宗商品表现第二差，2012年以来下跌了23%。目前，ICE棉花期货徘徊在每磅70美分附近。

International cotton in March 2011 $2.197 a pound in the history of the highest,This year it in the s&p GSCI spot index tracking 24 kinds of commodity performance second difference,Since 2012 fell 23%.At present,ICE cotton futures wander in the near 70 cents per pound.

　　据全球最大的棉花贸易商Allenberg Cotton的报告，中国今年收获季后棉花库存量将攀升至约900万吨，这个库存能弥补未来6年的消费缺口。全球最大棉花消费国的库存变化，将直接影响全球棉花价格的走势。

According to the world's largest cotton traders Allenberg Cotton report,China this year after harvest season cotton stocks to rise to about 9 million tons,The inventory can make up for the next six years of consumption gap.The world's largest cotton consumer inventory changes,Will have a direct impact on the global trend of the price of cotton.

　　Allenberg Cotton首席执行官Joe Nicosia认为，由于中国政府为支撑国内价格并提高农民收入加大了采购量，今年中国购入的储备量可能上涨至500万吨，而去年的采购量为320万吨。

Allenberg Cotton chief executive Joe Nicosia think,Because of China's government to support domestic prices and improve farmers' income increase the purchase quantity,This year China buying reserves could rise to 5 million tons,And last year's purchasing quantity for 3.2 million tons.

　　“只要中国维持补贴棉农的政策，全世界都将会倾向产量过剩。你能想象未来六年中国不进口任何棉花会是什么情况？”Nicosia说：“在中国之外全球过剩的棉花有1390万包。中国的进口量将决定未来棉花市场走向。”

"As long as China maintain cotton subsidies policy,The whole world will tend to excess production.Can you imagine the next six years China does not import any cotton: what is it?"Nicosia said:"Outside China, global excess cotton 13.9 million bale.China's imports will decide the cotton market trend."