按目前的趋势发展，今年中国贸易顺差可能创出四年来的高点，但研究者认为，这不足以成为人民币升值的推动力。

According to the current trends,This year's trade surplus may create four years high,But the researchers think,It is not enough to be the appreciation of the renminbi impetus.

　　官方数据显示，今年前十月中国经常项目顺差总额已达1802.36亿美元，已经超过去年全年1548.97亿美元的规模，非常接近2010年和2009年全年的水平。2010年贸易顺差为1815.1亿美元，2009年为1956.89亿美元。

Official figures show,Before this year October China's current-account surplus has amounted to $180.236 billion,Last year more than the scale of 154.897 billion dollars,Very close to the 2010 and 2009 annual level.In 2010, the trade surplus for 181.51 billion dollars,In 2009 for 195.689 billion dollars.

　　中信建投宏观分析师胡艳妮在接受财新记者采访时表示，西方市场开始为圣诞节假日准备订单，从而拉动中国整体出口需求季节性回暖，同时由于内需不足，进口增长仍较为低迷，因此，四季度大顺差局面将依然存在。

Citic built for macroscopic analysts HuYanNi accept money in new reporter to interview said,The western market began to prepare for the Christmas holidays order,So as to boost China's overall export demand seasonal thaw,At the same time, due to the lack of domestic demand,Import growth remained relatively low,therefore,Four quarter big surplus situation will still exist.

　　她认为，今年贸易顺差规模将很可能超过过去三年，这或许会再次成为国际舆论施压人民币升值的口实。但事实很可能是这种大顺差并不会成为趋势。

She thinks,This year the trade surplus size will likely over the past three years,Perhaps this will again become the international public opinion pressure to revalue the renminbi handle.But the truth is likely to be the large surplus will not become the trend.

　　胡艳妮的理由是，中国并不会追求高顺差，同时国内外整体需求目前看并不会很好，而且随着中国国内需求的回暖，进口预计会逐渐上升。

HuYanNi reason is,China does not pursue high surplus,At the same time the whole demand at home and abroad at present see not will be very good,And with China's domestic demand milder,Import is expected to gradually rise.

　　华泰证券首席经济学家刘煜辉(微博也预计，考虑到内需稳步回升，国内经济平稳复苏将对进口起到拉动效用。随着国内刺激政策的出台实施，经济逐步好转，进口缓慢回升可能性较大。

Huatai securities chief economist LiuYuHui(Micro bo also is expected to,Considering the domestic demand picks up steadily,The domestic economy to a smooth recovery will import pull utility.Along with the domestic stimulus policy appearing implementation,Economy improving step by step,Import more likely to slow rebound.

　　由此可以推断，经常项目贸易顺差可能很难回归到金融危机以前的近3000亿美元的规模，对于人民币的升值压力，已有减缓。

Thus it can be concluded,Often project trade surplus may be difficult to return to the financial crisis before the scale of nearly $300 billion,For the yuan appreciation pressure,Has been slow.

　　高盛/高华经济学家宋宇分析10月的数据时称，贸易顺差的上升主要缘于季节性因素，经季调后的10月贸易顺差略低于9月的水平。随着中国经济总量的扩大，贸易顺差在GDP中的占比已从记录高点降至3%左右。

Goldman sachs gao hua/economists SongYu analysis October as data,The rise of trade surplus mainly due to seasonal factors,The season after adjustment on October trade surplus slightly lower than the level of September.With China's economic expansion of the total amount,The trade surplus in GDP accounted for from record highs than has dropped to 3%.

　　经常项目顺差与GDP之比在2007年达到历史最高值10.1%，此后明显回落，2010年为5.2%，2011年上半年进一步下降至2%以上。

A current account surplus and the ratio of GDP in 2007 to 10.1% of its record high,Since then apparent,5.2% in 2010,A further decline in the first half of 2011 to 2% above.

　　另外，较多机构人士近期在接受财新记者采访时谈到，人民币单边升值的预期已经被打破，人民币汇率未来更多会在市场的作用下呈现双向波动。

In addition,More people in recent institutions accept money new reporter to interview talked about,RMB appreciation of unilateral expectations have been broken,The exchange rate for the renminbi in the market future more at present under the action of two-way fluctuation.