分析认为，新出口订单回升显示出积极的增长势头

According to analysis,New export orders picks up shows positive growth

　　记者 傅苏颖

reporter FuSuYing

　　按照惯例，海关总署将于10月10日发布9月及前三个季度外贸进出口数据。受国际国内市场需求萎缩影响，近期外贸数据持续低迷，但刚出炉的新出口订单指数反弹传递出积极的信号，并结合同期基数及基础原材料及矿产资源价格走势情况，专家预计，9月外贸进出口数据较前月或有所好转，贸易顺差收窄至240亿。

According to the practice,The general administration of customs will be held on October 10th September and released the first three quarters the foreign trade import and export data.By the international and domestic market demand atrophy influence,The recent foreign trade data sustained downturn,But just a new export orders index rebound transfer a positive signal,And combined with the base and basic raw materials and mineral resources price trend situation,Experts expect,September foreign trade import and export data to be somewhat more or better,The trade surplus narrowed to 24 billion.

　　兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委(微博)表示，从中国出口集装箱运输市场情况看，9月前三周主要航线货量继续维持弱势格局，除北美航线外，其余航线船舶舱位利用率均维持在低位。欧洲航线旺季货量依然未见起色，持续低迷，航线装载率持续减少，仅为80%；地中海航线受欧债危机和地缘政治因素影响，货量持续不振，舱位利用率仅维持在七成左右；北美航线运输需求相对乐观，货量稳中缓升，舱位利用率在90%-95%；波斯湾红海航线货量有所回升，但平均舱位利用率依然维持在八成左右的低位；澳新航线货量基本稳定，舱位利用率维持在八成附近；南美航线货量波动较大，整体运输需求有所上行；日本航线货量逐周回升，传统旺季来临，进入中旬后货量充足，仓位利用率由月初的七成升至八成以上。

Industrial bank chief economist commissar lu(Micro bo)said,From China's export container transportation market conditions to see,September 3 weeks before the main course cargo to maintain the weak pattern,In addition to the north American routes,The rest of the route ship space utilization ratio are maintained in the low post.European route season cargo still failed to respond,Sustained downturn,Route cubed out continue to decrease,Is only 80%;The Mediterranean Sea route from Europe debt crisis and geopolitical factors,Cargo continues to falter,Space utilization rate is running at only seventy percent;North American airline transportation demand relatively optimistic,Cargo steady upheaval,Space utilization rate in 90% - 95%;The Persian gulf the red sea route cargo have rebounded,But the average space utilization rate still maintained at eighty percent or so low;Australia airline cargo basically stable,Space utilization rate to maintain in the near eighty percent;South American airline cargo fluctuates greatly,The overall transport demand is rising;Japanese airline cargo weekly picks up,The traditional peak season coming,After the middle into cargo enough,Position the utilization rate of seventy percent at the beginning of rose to more than eighty percent.

　　“进口货量可能继续低迷。” 他表示，9月上半月波罗的海干散货运价指数(简称BDI指数)继续大幅走低，在9月17日开始企稳反弹，但反弹后的水平依然低于8月，9月BDI均值较8月均值下跌10%。季调后的进口环比走势与BDI指数环比走势正相关，显示9月贸易成交依然低迷。但基数较低有利于同比读数回升。去年9月进、出口环比8月下降0.3%和2.1%，而2002年以来，9月进、出口额均较8月上升，未曾下降过。

"Import quantity may continue to slump." He said,September first half the Baltic dry bulk freight index(Referred to as the BDI index)Continue to sharply,On September 17, began to rebound stabilises,But after the rebound level is still lower than August,September BDI mean more August average fell 10%.Season after adjustment of import link trend and the BDI index link movements are related,Display September trade clinch a deal the downturn.But a lower base year-on-year reading to rebound.Last September into/Export link August decreased by 0.3% and 2.1%,And since 2002,September into/Exports are rising is August,Not falling.

　　统计局与中国物流与采购联合会近日公布的数据显示，9月份制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.8%，比上月回升0.6个百分点，其中，新出口订单指数上升2.2个百分点至48.8%，反弹幅度高于历史均值。有分析认为，新出口订单回升，除了受季节性因素影响，一定程度上还反映了近期欧洲央行和美联储宽松货币政策的刺激作用，显示了积极的增长势头。

With the bureau of statistics of China federation of logistics &purchasing recently published data display,September manufacturing purchasing managers index(PMI)Is 49.8%,More than 0.6% rally last month,the,New export orders index gained 2.2% to 48.8%,Rebound amplitude is higher than the mean history.Have analyzed that,New export orders picks up,In addition to be seasonal factors,To a certain extent, also reflects the recent European central bank and the federal reserve loose monetary policy stimulation,Display a positive growth.

　　不过，分析人士也指出，新订单虽然有较明显的反弹，但是仍然位于收缩区间，显示当前的最终需求仍然偏弱。

but,Analysts also pointed out,New orders although there are more apparent rebound,But still in shrink interval,Show the current final demand is still weak.