10月贸易数据显示，中国出口同比增长11.6%，高于上月的9.9%和市场预期的10%；进口同比增长2.4%，与上月持平。进出口相抵，中国10月录得贸易顺差320亿美元，明显高于上月的277亿美元。

October trade data display,Export growth surged by 11.6% yoy,Higher than 9.9% and the market is expected to last month's 10%;Imports increased 2.4% year-on-year,And previous month.Import and export offsetting,China's October record trade surplus of $32 billion,Obviously higher than the $27.7 billion last month.

　　其中，对美国和我国香港的出口分别同比增长9.0%和38.4%，高于上月的5.5%和31.7%；对欧洲的出口则仍为负值，同比下滑8.1%，与上月的-10.7%相比有所收窄。从大宗商品进口数据看，按进口量计算，原油、铁矿石和大豆进口分别同比上升13.8%、13%和5.8%。海关经过季节调整的数据表明，与上月相比，出口环比下滑了2.3%，但进口环比增长了2.8%。

the,For the United States and our country Hong Kong's exports year-on-year increase of 9.0% and 38.4% respectively,Higher than last month's 5.5% and 31.7%;Exports to Europe is still as a negative value,Fell 8.1% year-on-year,And last month - 10.7% compared with is narrow.From commodity import data to see,According to imports calculation,Crude oil/Iron ore and soyabean imports were up 13.8%/13% and 5.8%.The customs after season adjustment data shows,Compared with last month,Export link dropped 2.3%,But import link increased by 2.8%.

　　外贸尤其是出口数据表明中国经济开始明显复苏，与10月实体经济数据相呼应。从不断增加的投资项目和投资需求来看，在未来的一段时间内，中国的大宗商品需求将较为强劲。

Foreign trade especially export data show that China's economic recovery became obvious,And October entity economic data photograph echo.From increased investment projects and investment demand to see,In the future period of time,China's demand for commodities will be relatively strong.

　　值得注意的是，商务部在贸易数据公布后表明，中国需要降低奢侈品的价格，这暗示中国将调低相关商品的进口关税，以提振国内消费。虽然中国10月外贸总体表现不错，但全年10%的增长目标已经很难完成，中国未来的外贸形势仍然面临着一定的困难。

It is important to note that,The ministry of commerce trade data show that after the announcement,China needs to reduce the price of luxury goods,This suggests that China will turn down relevant commodity import tariffs,To boost domestic consumption.Although the Chinese October foreign trade overall performance is good,But the 10% growth target has been difficult to achieve,China's future foreign trade situation is still faced with certain difficulties.

　　近期较为强劲的贸易顺差明显推动了人民币升值，但本轮升值将伴随着美国大选的落幕而告一段落。总体来看，中国目前的经济表现不足以支撑过强的汇率走势，同时全年外贸增长难以实现，中国官方也不会容忍人民币的过度升值。从过去一段时间的市场表现看，中国人民银行一直将人民币中间价定在6.30的上方，但市场卖出美元的情绪似乎更强，这导致了人民币出现了多天的连续“涨停”走势，但伴随着美国大选结束，中国人民银行或将引导人民币汇率向6.30区间小幅贬值。

Recent relatively strong trade surplus obviously promote the appreciation of the RMB,But this appreciation will be accompanied by the U.S. presidential election ended and come to an end.overall,China's current economic performance is not enough to support a strong exchange rate movements,At the same time to realize the foreign trade growth,China's official also won't tolerate excessive RMB appreciation.From the past a period of market performance to see,The people's bank of China has been among the yuan price set at the top of the 6.30,But the market sell the dollars seemed to be stronger,This led to the yuan appeared many days of continuous"harden"trend,But with the end of the U.S. presidential election,The people's bank of China or will guide the RMB exchange rate to 6.30 interval small devaluation.

　　（本文作者分别为澳新银行环球市场部大中华区首席经济师、澳新银行环球市场部中国经济师）

(The author respectively for Australia bank global Marketing Department chief economist in the greater China region/Australia bank global marketing China economist)