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卡塔尔LNG出口目标转向亚洲--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-11-23
虽说“皇帝的女儿不愁嫁”,但对具有丰富价廉的天然气资源和得天独厚地缘优势的全球液化天然气(LNG)产销第一大国卡塔尔来说,LNG“不愁嫁”的日子已是过去时。随着澳大利亚、美国、非洲以及中东国家不断扩大LNG产能以及LNG价格走低,LNG销售受到诸多挑战,曾经是卖方市场的LNG现在变为买方市场。因此,卡塔尔出口战略改变成必然。卡塔尔审时度势,正将亚洲作为主攻区域,在该地区竭力寻求长达20年的LNG长期出口合约,加紧重新布局LNG销售网。
although"The emperor's daughter married not sorrow",But to have rich cheap natural gas resources and unique geographical advantage of global liquefied natural gas(LNG)Production and marketing for the first power Qatar,LNG"Don't worry about to marry"Days are a thing of the past.As Australia/The United States/Africa and the Middle East countries constantly expand LNG production and LNG price low,LNG sales is affected by many challenges,Once it's a seller's market now into the LNG buyer's market.therefore,Qatar export strategy change become an inevitable.Qatar size up the situation,Is to Asia as a main target region,In the area to seek for more than 20 years of LNG long-term export contract,Step up to layout LNG distribution network.
卡塔尔的天然气探明储量为26万亿立方米,仅次于俄罗斯(47.57万亿立方米)和伊朗(29万亿立方米),居世界第三位。巨大的气田储量导致卡塔尔天然气开发成本极低,原料气开采成本平均仅为0.1205美元/百万英热单位,是世界上开采成本最低的天然气气田之一。这奠定了卡塔尔 LNG在世界上极具价格竞争优势的地位。
Qatar gas proved reserves for 26 trillion cubic meters,Next only to Russia(47.57 trillion cubic meters)And Iran(29 trillion cubic meters),Ranked third in the world.Huge gas reserves lead to Qatar natural gas development cost is extremely low,Raw material gas mining cost average is only $0.1205 / million British thermal unit,Is the world mining the lowest cost of natural gas is one of the gas field.This laid the Qatar LNG is in the world the most price competitive advantage position.
一直以来,美国是卡塔尔LNG的大客户,但现在美国需求锐减。“卡塔尔未料到美国天然气产量日新月异的变化。”《中东经济文摘》如是指出。美国能源信息署称,美国远景页岩气储量达827万亿立方米,较2010年的预测还要高出一倍多。
Has been,The United States is Qatar LNG big customer,But now the American demand decrease."Qatar did not expect the United States gas yield changing."[Middle East economic abstract]So pointed out that.The United States energy information agency said,The United States vision shale gas reserves of 827 trillion cubic meters,A 2010 forecast more than doubled.
自2008年以来,形势发展对卡塔尔越来越不利。一方面是,美国国内页岩气大发现深刻改变了美国甚至全球的天然气版图,美国于2009年超过俄罗斯成为全球最大的天然气生产国,其天然气进口份额越来越少。另外,自金融危机以来,美国经济持续低迷,天然气充裕带来的直接影响就是价格的下降。
Since 2008,The development situation of Qatar more and more disadvantage.On the one hand is,The United States shale gas found deep change the United States even global gas territory,In 2009 the United States more than Russia to become one of the world's largest natural gas producers,The gas import share less and less.In addition,Since since the financial crisis,The United States continued economic downturn,Abundant natural gas with a direct impact on the price drop.
与此同时,卡塔尔LNG出口大国的地位也面临着同行的挑战。同样富产油气的海湾阿拉伯国家也开始建设更多的天然气出口设施,分食原先属于卡塔尔的LNG市场。
meanwhile,Qatar LNG exporter status also faces the challenge of counterparts.The same rich oil and gas production gulf Arab countries began to build more natural gas export facilities,Points food originally belongs to the qatari LNG market.
在上述种种挑战下,一味地固守美国市场并非明智之举,卡塔尔的原有市场策略和布局不得不做出调整。
In the above all sorts of challenges,Stick to blindly the American market is not advisability lift,Qatar's original market strategy and layout have to make adjustment.
全球最大LNG生产商——卡塔尔天然气公司首席执行官谢赫·哈利夫直言:“由于在美国市场几乎无利可图,我们正在转移原本要卖到美国的大部分LNG。”卡塔尔预计将减少出口美国的LNG数量,改为向亚洲市场出口更多的LNG。
The world's largest LNG producers - Qatar gas company chief executive sheikh haley husband the truth:"Due to the market in the United States almost no profit,We are transferred to the United States had to sell most of the LNG."Qatar is expected to reduce the number of LNG exports to the United States,To the Asian market to export more LNG.
卡塔尔改变LNG战略布局是从多方面考量的:一是在全球经济普遍低迷之际,亚太地区仍保持着较高的GDP增长率,能源需求也是水涨船高。二是亚太地区LNG接收能力年均增长10%以上的趋势还将持续。三是LNG在亚洲市场价格偏高。亚洲、欧洲和美国实行不同的LNG贸易定价模式。东北亚LNG买家(如日本、韩国和中国台湾)由于地理位置原因,无法进口管道天然气,所以签署的LNG贸易合同价格与现货油价挂钩;欧洲因长期合约管道天然气价格与燃料油价格挂钩,导致其LNG合约价格要同时参考天然气现货价格和燃料油价格;而美国的贸易价格则是直接与其天然气现货价格挂钩。
Qatar change LNG strategic layout from various considerations:One is the general downturn in the global economy,The asia-pacific region is still maintained a high GDP growth rate,Energy demand is growing fast.The second is the asia-pacific region LNG receiving capability grew at an average annual rate of more than 10% of the trend will continue.The third is LNG in Asia market price is on the high side.Asia/Europe and the United States the different LNG trade pricing model.Northeast Asia LNG buyer(Such as Japan/South Korea and China Taiwan)Due to the geographical position causes,Unable to import of natural gas pipeline,So the LNG trade signed the contract price and spot price hook;Europe for long-term contract pipeline gas prices and fuel oil price hook,Lead to the LNG contract price will also reference gas spot price and fuel oil prices;And America's trade price is direct and its natural gas spot price hook.
总部位于伦敦的全球数据公司8月份发布的一项研究称,亚太地区LNG总的接收能力已从2000年3600亿立方米增加到2010年的8000亿立方米,年均增长10%,预计在2010~2015年期间,亚太地区LNG接收能力将年增10.5%。一些传统的LNG购买国如韩国,仍然是平稳的LNG消费国。日本由于福岛核泄漏这一偶发事件,今年的LNG进口量大增,预计今年日本将增加1000万吨LNG的现货采购来弥补电力需求缺口。随着未来逐步提高天然气在一次能源中的比例,日本将有望签订更多的LNG长期合同。
Headquartered in London's global data in August company released a study says,The asia-pacific region the LNG receiving ability has increased from 2000 360 billion cubic meters in 2010 to 800 billion cubic meters,The average annual growth of 10%,Is expected to during 2010 ~ 2015,The asia-pacific region LNG receiving in the ability to increase 10.5%.Some traditional LNG buying countries such as South Korea,Is still smooth LNG consumer.Because Japan fukushima nuclear leak this accident,This year's LNG imports soar,Expected this year Japan will be increased by 10 million tons of LNG spot procurement to make up for the power demand gap.With the gradually improving the future of natural gas in the primary energy ratio of,Japan is expected to sign more LNG long-term contract.
一些新兴的LNG进口国印度和中国,LNG消费潜力看涨。以中国为例,为满足迅速增长的电力需求,并降低污染程度,政府出台政策,增加天然气在一次能源消费中所占的份额。另外,新加坡、印尼等也在兴建LNG接收终端。
Some new LNG importing countries India and China,LNG consumption potential bullish.In China, for example,To meet the rapidly growing power demand,And reduce pollution degree,The government policy,Increasing gas in primary energy consumption proportion of.In addition,Singapore/Indonesia also in the construction of LNG receiving terminal.
从距离来看,卡塔尔距日本、英国和美国东海岸分别为10560千米、10080千米和13600千米,三者差不多。但太平洋沿岸和大西洋沿岸的LNG市场价格却大不相同。目前亚太区相对于欧洲市场高出一截的价格,将使更多的LNG从欧洲流入亚太市场。以今年4~6月为例,虽然欧洲天然气期货价格也有所上涨,但未超过10美元/百万英热单位,而同期卡塔尔天然气销往日本的20船LNG卖到了11.512美元/百万英热单位的高价。
From the distance came to see,Qatar from Japan/Britain and the United States east coast 10560 kilometers (miles) respectively/10080 km and 13600 km,Almost three.But the Pacific and the Atlantic coast LNG market prices are not the same.At present relative to the European market in Asia Pacific region higher than the price of a section,Will make more LNG from Europe into the asia-pacific market.This year in April to June as an example,Although the European natural gas futures price also has rise up,But not more than $10 / million British thermal unit,Over the same period, Qatar gas exported to Japan 20 ship LNG sold to $11.512 / million British thermal unit prices.
从需求看,欧洲和北美地区对卡塔尔天然气的需求远没有亚洲迫切。因此卡塔尔出于利润最大化考量,亚太市场比欧美市场更具吸引力。亚太地区作为大买家,卡塔尔作为大卖家,二者间的合作势必将越来越重要。
From the demand to see,Europe and North America to Qatar natural gas demand far from Asia urgent.Therefore Qatar from profit maximization considerations,The asia-pacific market more attractive than the European and American market.The asia-pacific region as a big buyer,Qatar as a big seller,The cooperation between the two will be more and more important.
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