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前10个月中国煤炭进出口贸易分析--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-12-04
国家发改委日前发布数据显示,今年1-10月,我国煤炭净进口2.17亿吨,同比增长39.5%,进口均价为每吨103.6美元。数据同时显示,国内煤炭消费增幅回落,其中火电行业耗煤回落较为明显。
The national development and reform commission has released data show,This year October 1 -,In our country's coal net import 217 million tons,Year-on-year growth of 39.5%,Import average per ton for $103.6.Data also shows that,The domestic coal consumption rate dropped,The thermal power industry coal consumption dropped more obvious.
分析人士表示,上半年国际煤价连续下行后,相比国产煤炭,价格优势明显。在需求旺季时,国内贸易商便加大了进口煤的采购,因此当前进口煤同比增量明显。
Analysts said,International coal prices in the first half after continuous descending,Compared with domestic coal,Price advantages.In the peak season demand,Domestic traders will increase the import coal purchase,Therefore the current import coal up incremental obviously.
今年以来,在宏观经济走弱的影响下,动力煤消费持续低迷,重点电力企业煤炭库存不断攀升并始终保持高位,消费地、中转地港口煤炭库存也均处在较高水平,进口煤的大量涌入也使得我国原本低迷的煤炭市场雪上加霜,煤炭价格持续下降。仅在前8个月,我国累计煤炭进口达1.85亿吨,同比增长46.3%,已经超过2011全年1.824亿吨的煤炭进口量。
Since this year,In the macro economy under the influence of weakness,Power coal consumption sustained downturn,Focus on the electric power enterprise increasing coal inventory and remain high,Consumption to/Middletown port coal inventory also are on a higher level,Import a lot of coal in our country was also made to the low coal market,Coal prices continue to decline.Only in the first eight months,Our country accumulated coal import 185 million tons,Year-on-year growth of 46.3%,Has more than 2011 annual 182.4 million tons of coal imports.
专家认为,进口煤的大量进入,对于国内发电行业和钢铁行业是利好消息。由于进入工业淡季,民间取暖会有一定需求但不会是强劲带动,国内煤炭市场应该都会持续平稳,到今年年底前不会有太大波动。进口煤大量的增加,或会对国内贸易煤炭价格造成一定的冲击,导致国内煤矿煤企的利润压缩,但同时,在煤价高企的时候也能起到平抑煤价的作用。
Experts say,A large number of coal imports into,For the domestic power generation industry and iron and steel industry is good news.Due to enter the industry off-season,Folk heating will have certain needs but will not be strong drive,The domestic coal market will be continuously and steadily,By the end of this year ago won't have too big wave motion.Import a lot of coal increases,Or will to domestic trade coal prices have a certain impact,Lead to domestic coal mine coal enterprise profit compression,But at the same time,In the high prices also can play the role of prices stabilize.
不过,从变化趋势看,进入下半年,伴随国内煤炭价格大幅下跌,国内外煤炭价差逐步缩小,进口煤市场持续走弱。自7月份以来,进口量持续下降,9月份跌破2000万吨整数关口至1863万吨,同比下降18.6%;10月份的进口量也仍处于2000万吨之下。因此,有分析人士预测,全年煤炭进口量有望稳定在2.4-2.5亿吨的规模。
but,From the perspective of the trend changes,Into the second half of,Along with the domestic coal prices fell sharply,The coal price gradually reduce both at home and abroad,The continuing weakness of the import coal market.Since July since,Imports continued to decline,September below 20 million tons of integer passes to 18.63 million tons,18.6% year-on-year drop;October imports also still in under 20 million tons.therefore,Have analysts forecast,The coal imports is expected to stability in the 2.4-250 million tons of scale.
相比于进口量的大增,我国煤炭出口量却一直呈现下降趋势。海关数据显示,2012年10月份硬煤及褐煤出口量为44万吨,环比下降17%。10月我国煤炭出口金额为6852.7万美元,今年110月,我国累计出口煤炭789万吨,较去年同期累计减少502万吨,同比下降38.9%;累计出口金额为136695.8万美元,较去年1-10月累计出口金额238147.8万美元同比下降42.7%。
Compared to the imports increased,In our country's coal exports have been presented down trend.Customs data shows,In October 2012 hard coal and lignite exports for 440000 tons,Link fell by 17%.October in our country's coal export amount of $68.527 million,110 month this year,Our country accumulated export 7.89 million tons of coal,Compared to the same period last year to reduce total 5.02 million tons,38.9% year-on-year drop;Accumulative total export amount of $1.366958 billion,Compared to last year October 1 - total export value $2.381478 billion fell 42.7% year-on-year.
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