事件：据国家统计局网站消息，根据国家统计局对全国31个省(区、市)的抽样调查和农业生产经营单位的全面统计，2012年全国粮食总产量58957万吨，比2011年增产1836万吨，增长3.2%。

events:According to the national bureau of statistics web site message,According to the national bureau of statistics of the national 31 provinces(area/city)Sampling investigation and agricultural production and operation units of comprehensive statistics,In 2012 the total grain output of 589.57 million tons,More than 2011 by 18.36 million tons,Growth of 3.2%.

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　　罕见的粮食九连增。中国农业传统的"两平两丰一欠"周期规律早已被打破，尽管生物育种技术大范围普及、农药、化肥用量大幅提高，但中国粮食产量如此增长仍然令人叹为观止。

Rare food. Even the increase.Chinese traditional agriculture"Two flat two abundant a owe"Cycle had been broken,Although a wide range of biological breeding technology popularization/pesticide/Fertilizer rate increase,But China's grain output is increasing so still amazing.

　　粮食增产进口更甚。尽管粮食产量屡创新高，但我国农产品进口规模和速度也十分惊人。大豆消费的近9成需要进口，玉米或将步大豆后尘。传统的水稻出口国已成为水稻净进口国，出口地位不再。猪肉、白糖进口增长势头依旧。产能严重过剩的饲料业仍然在大举扩张，导致了大量粮食需求和进口。

Grain production import more very.Although grain output reached new highs,But our country agricultural imports scale and speed also is quite amazing.Soy consumption nearly 9 into need to import,Corn or soybean step will follow.The traditional rice exporter has become a net importer of rice,Export status no longer.pork/Sugar import growth is still.Serious surplus production capacity of feedstuff still in massive expansion,Lead to a large number of food demand and import.

　　粮食安全不容忽视。尽管我国粮食产量连续九年增长，但粮食安全形势仍然十分棘手。当前我国种业基本被外资控制，未来粮食产量仍然存在很大的不确定性。农药化肥过量施用导致土壤及生态环境问题及农产品安全问题日益显现，靠单产提高粮食产量的时代或许难以为继。房地产业的大繁荣不仅大量占有农村土地，与高房价以及其带来的高物价相比农产品价格特别是主要粮食作物价格过于低估，如果这一局面持续下去，将产生巨大的冲击力。我们仍然认为农业而不是房地产才是国家之本，本为日常生活用品的房子变身为奢侈品隐患是不言而喻的。

Food safety can not be ignored.Although China's grain output growth for nine years,But food security situation is still very difficult.The current our country's seed industry basic foreign control,The future food production there are still a lot of uncertainty.Excessive amounts of pesticide and fertilizer to the soil and the ecological environment problems and farm produce safety problem is becoming increasingly obvious,Yield increase food production by the time perhaps unsustainable.Real estate boom of not only a large number of rural land,With high house prices and the associated high prices of agricultural products, especially compared to the price of the main food crop prices too much underestimate,If this situation continues,Will have a great impact.We still think agriculture instead of real estate is the country,This is the house of daily changes as luxury hidden danger is self-evident.

　　投资评级：我们维持农林牧渔板块“看好”评级。建议关注经营模式变革的亚盛集团与估值偏低的北大荒等上市公司。

Investment rating:We maintain farming, forestry, husbandry and fishing plate"value"rating.Suggestions focus on business model change and cheng group and undervalued the wilderness and the listed company.

　　风险因素：粮价、气候因素、政策、突发安全事件。

Risk factors:Food prices/Climate factors/policy/A security incident.