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11月贸易顺差大幅萎缩 我国被指回暖动力脆弱--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2012-12-10

  作为全球第二大经济体,中国经济的每一个细节和数据都牵动世界“神经”。中国海关总署12月10日公布数据显示,中国11月贸易顺差为196.3亿美元,与10月相比下滑38.6%,数据刚一出炉便引来关注,外媒评论称,尽管其他数据显示中国经济已开始复苏,但疲弱的贸易数据显示,中国经济回暖的驱动力仍然脆弱。不过,也有观点认为情况并不是非常糟糕,中国经济回暖只是时间问题。

As the world's second largest economy,China's economic every detail and data are affects the world"nerve".China's general administration of customs on December 10 figures show,China's November trade surplus for 19.63 billion dollars,Compared with October fell 38.6%,Just a data are then draws attention,Outside media commentary,Although other data show that China's economy has started to recovery,But weak trade data display,China's economy is still weak performance driving force.but,Also have ideas that situation is not very bad,China's economy picking up is just a question of time.

  新加坡《联合早报》报道说,因出口升幅大幅回落,中国11月贸易帐顺差大幅萎缩。根据中国海关数据,11月份,中国进出口总值为3391.3亿美元,与去年同期相比增长1.5%。其中,出口总额为1793.8亿美元,增长2.9%,进口总额为1597.5亿美元,与去年同期持平,贸易顺差196.3亿美元。

Singapore[United morning post]Reports say,Because export increase dropped sharply,China's November trade account surplus shrink dramatically.According to Chinese customs data,November,China import and export value is 339.13 billion dollars,Compared with the same period last year growth of 1.5%.the,Export amount of $179.38 billion,Growth of 2.9%,Imports for 159.75 billion dollars,The same with the same period last year,The trade surplus of $19.63 billion.

  法新社报道称,这一结果远低于此前经济学家们给出的预期,此前经济学家预测中国当月出口将增长9.6%,进口将增长1.9%。分析人士认为,这一“令人失望”的数据显示,中国经济回暖的驱动力仍然十分脆弱。

AFP report says,The result is far lower than previously economists are expected,Economists predict that month after China export will increase by 9.6%,Imports will increase by 1.9%.Analysts believe that,this"disappointing"Data showed that,China's economy picking up the driving force is still fragile.

  IHS环球透视经济学家任贤方(音译)称,疲弱的出口数据为中国经济复苏的脆弱性又增加了一个证据。报道还说,中国经济增速第三季度达到7.4%,创下3年来的新低。另据《澳大利亚人》报报道,汇丰银行经济学家马小平(音译)表示,令人失望的出口数据显示中国商品的外部需求仍然疲弱,过去两个月相对较好的出口表现只是由于“假日季”的暂时效果。 

IHS global perspective RenXianFang economists(transliteration)says,Weak export data for China's economic recovery vulnerability and added a evidence.The report also said,China's economic growth reached 7.4% in the third quarter,Low in three years.According to another[Australian]reported,HSBC economists MaXiaoPing(transliteration)said,Disappointing export data show that China's commodity external demand remains weak,In the past two months is relatively good export performance just because"Holiday season"Temporary effect. 

  任贤方在接受《市场观察》采访时说,本月出口数据疲弱并不吃惊,过去两个月回升的主要是向东南亚国家的出口,而向两个最大市场美国和欧盟的出口仍然缓慢,如果没有这两个西方市场的助力,中国出口业回升的可持续性值得怀疑。 

RenXianFang in accepting[Market observation]interview,This month the export data is not surprised,In the past two months is mainly to southeast Asia countries export,And to the two largest market for the United States and the European Union's exports are still slow,If there is no the two western market power,China's exports picks up the sustainability of suspect. 

  英国路透社引交通银行金融研究中心高级宏观分析师唐建伟的话认为,临近年底美国还面临财政悬崖的问题,欧洲也没有根本性改善。在这种背景下,中国出口难有明显改观,全年增速可能为8%左右,进口估计5%都不一定能实现。 

British Reuters lead traffic bank financial research center TangJianWei senior macroeconomic analyst that word,Near the end of the year the United States also faces the problem of financial cliff,Europe also have no fundamental improvement.In this background,China's export difficult have obvious difference,Annual growth may be around 8%,Import estimated 5% is not necessarily can realize. 

  不过,市场上也有一些谨慎乐观的分析。法新社认为,近期包括零售、固定资产投资、工业生产等其他主要指标都有所好转,增加了“最坏时期已经过去”的乐观性。不过,也有经济学家指出,这些数据反弹很大程度上是归功于基础设施消费。 

but,The market also has some cautious optimism analysis.AFP think,Recent including retail/Fixed asset investment/Industrial production and other main indicators are better,increased"The worst is over"positive.but,Also have economists say,These data rebound is largely attributed to infrastructure spending. 

  交通银行金融研究中心高级宏观分析师唐建伟认为,明年美国温和复苏的态势应该能够持续,中国明年出口形势可能会比今年略好一些,目标值可能在10%左右。IHS环球透视经济学家任贤方也指出,中国经济回暖只是时间问题。 

Bank of communications financial research center senior macro analysts TangJianWei think,The United States next year moderate recovery trend should be able to continue,China's export situation next year than this year may be slightly better,Target value may be at around 10%.IHS global perspective economists RenXianFang also pointed out,China's economy picking up is just a question of time. 



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