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11月中日贸易额大幅下滑--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-12-11

  虽然诸多宏观经济数据显示中国经济已经出现企稳回升,但昨日海关总署公布的数据表明,我国外贸形势依然疲软。数据显示,今年11月我国进出口同比增速双双出现下滑,1-11月进出口额增速仅为5.8%,难以完成年初制定的10%左右的增长目标几成定局。

Although many macroeconomic data show that China's economy has appeared stabilises picks up,But yesterday the general administration of customs figures show,Our country foreign trade situation is still weak.Data display,On November this year our country import and export year-on-year growth both declined,1 - November into export growth is only 5.8%,Difficult to complete set at the beginning of the 10% growth target a few to stay.

  中日贸易大幅下滑

Sino-japanese trade fell sharply

  数据显示,当月我国出口1793.8亿美元,增长2.9%,从10月份的同比增长11.6%重回个位数;进口1597.5亿美元,与去年同期持平,低于前一个月的2.4%;贸易顺差缩窄至196.3亿美元。

Data display,The Chinese export $179.38 billion,Growth of 2.9%,From October year-on-year growth of 11.6% return to singly;Imported 159.75 billion us dollars,The same with the same period last year,Less than 2.4% of one month before;The trade surplus constriction to $19.63 billion.

  市场分析普遍认为,11月外贸数据明显低于预期,显示国内外经济未有根本性好转,外需仍不乐观。中信建投宏观分析师胡艳妮表示,从出口来看,当月我国对美出口环比出现下滑,显示美国市场处于库存周期下行期;欧洲方面,虽然欧债危机告一段落,但该地区经济增长动力仍不足,短时间内很难恢复需求。同时,11月人民币兑美元汇率接连“涨停”,也是出口出现增速回落的重要原因。

Market analysis is generally accepted that,November foreign trade data is obviously lower than expected,At home and abroad show no fundamental economic turn for the better,Overseas market demand is still not optimistic.Citic built for macroscopic analysts HuYanNi said,From the outlet to see,The our country exports to America link declined,Show the American market in the inventory cycle the date of departure;Europe,Although the debt crisis come to an end,But the region's economic growth momentum is still inadequate,It is difficult to restore demand in a short time.At the same time,November on the us dollar"harden",Also export growth fell in the important reasons.

  而从内需看,由于国内经济回暖迹象仍不稳,加之国际大宗商品价格仍处低位,使得进口增速也有所放缓。胡艳妮表示,预计12月外贸形势还将延续11月的趋势。

But from domestic demand to see,Due to the domestic economy picking up signs is still unstable,Together with the international commodity prices still at low level,Make import growth will be slow.HuYanNi said,December is expected to foreign trade situation will continue the trend of November.

  数据还显示,钓鱼岛事件也持续影响中日贸易关系。当月,中国对日出口136亿美元,同比下降3.8%;中国从日本进口138亿美元,同比大幅下降15.1%。

Data also shows that,Diaoyu islands events also continues to influence sino-japanese trade relations.month,China's export, $13.6 billion,3.8% year-on-year drop;China imported 13.8 billion dollars from Japan,Fell sharply by 15.1% year-on-year.

  外贸增长目标难达到

Foreign trade growth target difficult to achieve

  数据还显示,今年1-11月,我国进出口总值35002.8亿美元,比去年同期增长5.8%。其中,出口增长7.3%;进口增长4.1%。

Data also shows that,This year November 1 -,China import and export (GDP) of us $3.50028 trillion,Than last year the corresponding period grows 5.8%.the,Export growth of 7.3%;Imports rose 4.1%.

  商务部部长陈德铭此前表示,中国原定今年进出口增长10%左右,目前看来,完成目标任务非常艰巨,重新确立的目标是“中国全年对外贸易量在全球总贸易量中占比不减少”。

The ministry of commerce minister Chen deming said previously,China this year for import and export growth by about 10%,Now it looks,Achieving goals is very arduous task,The goal is to establish"China's foreign trade in the global total trade volume of the than not reduce".

  胡艳妮分析,今年全年进出口增速将维持在5.2%-5.3%,其中出口预计能达到7%,外贸低迷将一直持续到明年上半年。她称,美国两党即使对“财政悬崖”达成协议,明年开始的紧缩政策也将对中美贸易造成负面影响;中欧贸易预计也将维持目前趋势,预计到明年下半年才会有缓慢回升。

HuYanNi analysis,This year the import and export growth will remain at 5.2% - 5.3%,The export expected to reach 7%,Foreign trade slump will continue until the first half of next year.She says,The two parties even for"Fiscal cliff"To reach an agreement,Next year's tightening will cause negative effect to sino-us trade;China's trade are expected to maintain current trends,Predicts the second half of next year will be slow rebound.



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