“这两年大家都不急着‘冬储’了。”唐山路南区钢材市场的贸易商刘建军（化名）对记者表示，目前为止，今年并没有出现大规模的“冬储”备货现象。

"The two years we are not in a hurry‘DongChu’the."LuNaOu tangshan steel market traders LiuJianJun(alias)Told reporters,So far,This year, there was no mass"DongChu"Stock up phenomenon.

　　而对于今后几个月的钢价走势和市场需求，贸易商普遍持悲观态度，这种心态进而影响到了年末的“冬储”行情。

For the next few months of steel price trend and market demand,Traders generally pessimistic attitude,This kind of mentality and the influence of the end of the year"DongChu"market.

　　“冬储”意愿逐年下降

"DongChu"Intend to drop year by year

　　按照惯例，每年10月份之后，北方地区户外工程作业基本停止，用钢量大幅减少，贸易商都会集中进行备货，为来年的施工旺季做准备。

According to the practice,After a year in October,The northern area outdoor work ground to a halt,Steel quantity is greatly reduced,The traders have will focus on stock up,For the coming year to prepare the construction season.

　　但是，从去年冬天开始，贸易商备货的积极性就开始明显下降。“今年的备货可能也会放缓，备货量也不会太多。”刘建军向记者分析道。

but,Start from last winter,Traders stock up enthusiasm began to decrease."This year's stock up may also slow,Make up the order quantity to also won't be too much."LiuJianJun told reporters analysis way.

　　谈及其中的原因，刘建军表示，推迟和减少备货的主要原因，是由于对目前钢材价格的“恐高”和对后期市场需求的不看好。

Talk about the reason,LiuJianJun said,Delay and reduce the main reason for the stock up,Is due to the present price of steel"Fear of high"And the market demand has not late.

　　“对于明年年初的行情，还要等到年底的时候，看看钢材价格的实际走势，以及钢厂定价和下游消费需求情况等，进而预判明年的价格走势，才能决定今年的‘冬储’量，所以目前还没有决定今年的‘冬储’计划。”

"The market for early next year,Will wait until the end of time,Look at the price of steel of the actual situation,And steel pricing and downstream consumption demand, etc,And preliminary ascertain years of price trend,Can decide this year's‘DongChu’quantity,So there is no decision of this year‘DongChu’plan."

　　事实上，持这种心态的贸易商不在少数。唐山市路南区钢材市场经营管材的贸易商张磊也向记者表示：“我们去年的‘冬储’量就比之前减少了50%，今年估计会更少。”

In fact,Hold this kind of mentality traders is not a few.LuNaOu tangshan steel market operation pipe traders zhang lei also told reporters:"Last year we‘DongChu’Quantity is reduced 50% than before,This year will be less."

　　他告诉记者，往年他们公司的“冬储”量在4万~5万吨，一般从10月中旬后、11月初开始。但由于目前形势不太好，怕明年年初钢价仍难以反转，所以不敢大量囤货。

He told reporters,In previous years they company"DongChu"The amount of 40000 ~ 50000 tons,General from October after the middle/And beginning.But due to the current situation is not so good,Afraid of early next year steel price is still difficult to reverse,So not a lot of stock up.

　　“这一年来，企业一直都是低库存运作，钢厂的产量减不下来，行情很难好起来，‘冬储’也没多大意义了。”他说。

"This year,Enterprise has always been low inventory operation,Steel production cannot reduce down,Quotation is hard to better,‘DongChu’Also didn't much great sense."He said.

　　“冬储”遇冷的非市场因素

"DongChu"Encounter cold non-market factors

　　据了解，根据经营钢材品种的不同，其“冬储”时间安排也有所延期。

It is understood,According to the operation of varieties of steel,the"DongChu"Time will be postponed.

　　“通常建材类‘冬储’较早，往往10月末、11月初就已经开始了，而管材用料施工通常在来年5月份，因而这一品种往往到3月份才开始‘冬储’。”张磊向记者表示，所以一部分像他们这样的公司，目前还有充分的时间来观望考虑。

"Usually building materials such‘DongChu’earlier,Often at the end of October/In early November, he has already started,And pipe materials construction usually in May next year,Thus this breed often to march began‘DongChu’."Zhang lei, told reporters,So part of the company like them,There is still plenty of time to consider watching.

　　除了市场的不景气之外，近两年贸易商“冬储”积极性的下降，还和市场整体环境的变化有很大关系。

In addition to the outside market downturn,Nearly two years traders"DongChu"Enthusiasm decline,Also and the market overall changes in the environment has a great relationship.

　　唐钢不锈钢公司的王琼宇分析称：“这两年，市场越来越透明，贸易商赌行情的经营方式已经失灵了，‘冬储’的意义正在淡化。”

Tangsteel stainless steel company WangQiongYu analysis says:"The two years,The market is more and more transparent,Traders bet quotation mode of operation has failed,‘DongChu’Meaning is dilution."

　　他的说法得到了贸易商刘建军的认同：“从去年开始，我们的库存量只有正常的1/3，根据订单情况，小批量进货，即便是冬天也是如此，不会再特意‘冬储’。”

His statement has been traders LiuJianJun identity:"Since last year,Our inventory is only 1/3 of the normal,According to order situation,Small batch purchase,Even in the winter also is such,Won't have‘DongChu’."

　　据了解，往年由于“冬储”期间出货价格较低，考虑到开春后的需求，贸易商普遍乐于帮助钢厂完成“冬储”。但近两年，随着钢厂对终端不断渗透，贸易商的“蓄水池”功能逐步弱化，“贸易商从‘冬储’中捞不到好处，自然不愿意再‘冬储’了。”“贸易商不愿意冬储，但钢厂需要消化库存获得资金。在此情况下，钢厂降价或者跨地区出货将成为大概率事件，越是没人‘冬储’，钢厂降价的概率就越大，这样的预期，使更多的人不敢‘冬储’，这是一个恶性循环。”王琼宇表示。“况且，即便来年涨价了，除去资金成本和仓储费用，基本就没什么利润了。”刘建军对记者表示，现在选择“冬储”的贸易商仅仅是出于维系与钢厂之间的关系。

It is understood,Usual due to"DongChu"Shipment during lower prices,Considering the demand of the spring,Traders generally ready to help steel mill finish"DongChu".But nearly two years,Along with the steel mill to terminal continuously penetration,traders"reservoir"Function gradually weakening,"Traders from‘DongChu’Fishing for less than good,Natural don't want to‘DongChu’the.""Traders don't want to DongChu,But steel mills need to digest inventory receive money.In this case,Steel price or delivery across the region will become a big probability event,More no one‘DongChu’,The greater the probability of steel price,That prospect,Make more people can't‘DongChu’,It is a vicious cycle."WangQiongYu said."besides,Even if the price in the coming year,Remove capital cost and storage cost,Basic is no profit."LiuJianJun told reporters,Now select the"DongChu"Traders is merely of sustain and the relationship between the steel mill.