据报道，即将于明年中卸任的英国央行行长金默文(Mervyn King)向全球各国发出警告，指全球大部分国家已透过管理利率来代替调整国内货币政策。他担心全球经济继续放缓，会迫使各国都以低利率来刺激经济增长，加上贸易失衡恶化的情况下，令全球各国会于明年爆发货币战争。

According to the report,The former emperor years the British central bank governors JinMoWen(Mervyn King)To the global warning,Refers to the global most countries already through management interest rates to replace adjustment of domestic monetary policy.He is worried about the global economy continues to slow,All countries will be forced to lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth,Add trade imbalances deteriorating,The world will make next year war broke out money.

　　金默文周一先后于纽约演讲及接受《华尔街日报》访问，阐述自己对明年经济形势的看法。他认为不少国家正努力令本国货币贬值，以抵销全球经济放缓的影响，这趋势明年极有可能进一步加剧。由于英国央行在全球各国央行中极具历史地位之余，政策亦往往领先市场，加上金默文在中央银行界亦颇受尊重，故言论具有一定份量。

JinMoWen successively in New York on Monday speech and accept[The Wall Street journal]access,Present their views on the next year the economic situation.He thinks that many countries are trying to make currency,To offset the effects of the global economic slowdown,This trend is likely to worsen next year.Due to the bank of England in the global central Banks in the most historical position over,Policy also often lead the market,Add JinMoWen in central Banks also respected,The speech has a certain weight.

　　英美贸易赤字强劲 无计可施

British and American trade deficit is strong Wit's end

　　2008年金融海啸爆发前，英美等国依赖消费去推动增长，而德国及中国等则依赖出口。但金融海啸后，二十国集团(G20)反而少了协调，妄顾世界经济平衡。事实上，美联储2010年推出三轮量化宽松措施(QE3)，期间美元指数累跌近一成。

2008 years before the outbreak of the financial tsunami,British and American and other countries rely on consumption to promote growth,But Germany and China, is dependent on export.But after the financial tsunami,The second group of ten(G20)But little coordination,Jump to the world economic balance.In fact,The fed in 2010 launched three quantitative easing measures(QE3),The dollar index tired during fell nearly ten percent.

　　相反，新兴国家货币却不断升值，过去两年巴西央行已累积减息十次，但雷亚尔货币兑美元仍然升值逾一成，而其他新兴货币亦有一定升幅。但理论上低利率确能够提高一国的出口竞争力，从而促进经济产值增加，瑞士、日本及巴西等国已努力阻止货币升值，以免失去出口优势。

instead,Emerging countries currency appreciation is constantly,In the past two years the Brazilian central bank has accumulated interest ten times,But the real currency appreciation against the dollar is still more than ten percent,And other emerging currency also have a certain increase.But theoretically low interest rates that can improve a country's export competitiveness,So as to promote economic value added,Switzerland/Japan and Brazil and other countries have tried to prevent currency appreciation,In order to avoid losing their export advantage.

　　货币续升 恐失出口优势

Currency rise for Fear of loss of export advantage

　　金默文相信世界经济急需有巨额贸易顺差的国家促进国内经济增长，才能推动全球增长恢复平衡，但现实却并非如此。从近年发达国家与新兴国家的外汇储备规模差距越来越阔，已可见全球贸易失衡问题有多严重。以美国为例，贸易赤字与财政赤字根本是必然并存的问题。美国贸易赤字问题，等于每天都从比较穷的国家借贷来弥补巨额贸易逆差。

JinMoWen believe that the world economy is badly in need of a large trade surplus countries, to promote the domestic economic growth,To promote global growth to restore balance,But the reality is not so.In recent years from developed countries and emerging countries has the largest foreign exchange reserves gap more and more rich,Already visible global trade imbalances how much of a problem.In the United States, for example,The trade deficit and fiscal deficit it is both inevitable problems.The us trade deficit problem,Every day is from poorer countries to borrow to make up for the huge trade deficit.

　　至于新兴国家，则为预防金融危机而累积大量外储备，又力求保持贸易顺差使外汇增加，明显会影响贸易平衡。

As for the emerging countries,To prevent the financial crisis and accumulated a large number of foreign reserves,And strive to maintain a favorable balance of trade to increase foreign exchange,Obviously affect trade balance.

　　加上欧美等发达国家的劳动密集型产业，已大量转移至新兴国家，使这些国家产生大量出口来保持贸易盈余，都是形成贸易不平衡的主因。

With Europe and the United States and other developed countries of the labor-intensive industries,Has a large number of transfer to emerging countries,These countries produce a large number of export to keep trade surplus,Is the major cause of formation of trade imbalance.

　　金默文指，正是贸易顺差与逆差的国家越来越壁垒分明，令环球经济进一步阴云密布。金默文称，货币政策维持需求的作用将越来越小。长远来看，各国央行如何退市亦是问题，因可能会对市场产生破坏作用。 

JinMoWen refers to,It is the trade surplus and deficit countries more and more distinct barriers,Make the global economy further overcast.JinMoWen says,Monetary policy to maintain the effect of demand will be more and more small.The long run,Central Banks how to withdraw from the market also is the problem,Because the market may damage effect.