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世界油气贸易东移 我国该如何分散供能风险--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2012-12-13
2011年全球石油消费40.6亿吨,天然气消费3.2万亿立方米。美国、欧洲和亚太地区三大区中,亚太的比重日渐增强。
2011 global oil consumption of 4.06 billion tons,3.2 trillion cubic meters of natural gas consumption.The United States/Europe and the asia-pacific region in the three regions,The proportion of the growing.
中国是一个富煤缺油少气的国家。我国能源结构中,石油、天然气等占比重低。在我国石油消费占能源消费比重较低的前提下,现有的原油(86.65,-0.12,-0.14%)生产能力尚且难以满足需求量,据《2011年国内外油气行业发展报告》显示,2011年,中国全年原油产量只有2亿吨左右,超过56%的原油依靠进口,而且这种态势还将继续攀升。
China is a rich coal oil starvation less gas country.In China's energy structure,oil/Natural gas low proportion.In China's oil consumption accounts for a small proportion of the energy consumption under the precondition of,Existing crude oil(86.65,0.12,0.14% -)If production capacity to meet demand,According to[In 2011, oil and gas industry development report at home and abroad]display,In 2011,,China's annual oil production is only 200 million tons,More than 56% of the crude oil rely on imports,And this situation will continue to rise.
据悉,目前我国进口石油约占世界贸易量的12%。预计2015年将上升至14%左右。未来,中亚、中缅、中俄天然气管道将是我国陆上进口天然气的三大动脉。
It is reported,At present our country imported oil accounted for about 12% of world trade.Expected in 2015 will rise to 14%.The future,Central Asia/Burma in/Natural gas pipeline between China and Russia will be the country's land imported gas three aorta.
中投顾问能源行业研究员周修杰在接受《中国产经新闻》采访时指出:国际油气贸易中,作为需求方,我国优势不明显。劣势却很突出,我国油气资源供应一直依赖进口,导致我国在贸易格局中缺乏价格话语权,并且严重受限于供能国家,甚至可能威胁国内供能安全,尤其对中东及俄罗斯地区的油气依赖日益提升,加剧供能安全问题。
An energy consultant industry researcher ZhouXiuJie in accepting[China sankei shimbun]Interview pointed out that:The international oil trade,As home-textile,Our country advantage is not obvious.Disadvantage is very outstanding,Oil and gas resources in China has been supply relies on import,Resulted in a lack of price in the trade pattern of discourse power,And severely limited by energy state,Even may threaten the domestic energy security,Especially for the Middle East and Russia region rely on rising oil and gas,Increased energy security issues.
柯晓明指出:供应安全一方面来自于产油国的政治动荡。中东、非洲、前苏联和拉美这些资源集中区的政治经济都不稳定,宗教、民族冲突,叛乱、政变以及与西方的抵抗关系使这些国家的石油供应和出口存在变数。另一方面则来自于运输,未来进口油气运输仍以海运为主,陆上管输仅能作为补充。未来10年我国对中东油气资源的依赖仍接近一半,中东航线运输安全最重要,霍尔木兹和马六甲海峡是中东航线上的重要海峡,一旦出问题将影响我国近一半的进口量。
KeXiaoMing pointed out that:The security of supply on the one hand from the producers of political unrest.Middle East/Africa/The former Soviet union and Latin America these resources, high political and economic are unstable,religious/Ethnic conflict,rebellion/The coup and western resistance relationship between the country's oil supply and export exist variable.On the other hand comes from transportation,The import of oil and gas transportation by sea still give priority to,Land pipeline can only as a supplement.China in the next decade, for the Middle East oil and gas resources dependence is still close to half,The Middle East route transportation safety is the most important,HuoErMuZi and malacca strait is the Middle East route of the important channel,Once a problem will influence our country nearly half of the imports.
国家发改委价格司副司长周望军曾说,我们是一个发展中大国,也是一个处在工业化初级阶段的国家。这么大的国家完全依赖石油进口是不可想象的。一旦遇到战争或者自然灾害,国外石油供应一断,就是死路一条。
The national development and reform commission price department deputy director general weeks at army said,We are a developing country,Is also a primary stage in industrialized countries.Such a big country relies entirely on oil import is unimaginable.When it came to war or natural disaster,Foreign oil supply a break,Is one.
相关专家表示,目前中国是世界第一大能源消费国,去年能源消费总量34.8亿吨标准煤。然而,面对目前不太稳定的供应环境,中国将如何确保供应安全?
Related experts say,China is the world largest energy consumer,Last year, 3.48 billion tons of standard coal energy consumption.however,In the face of the current is not so stable supply environment,China will how to ensure the security of supply?
周修杰建议:我国应加强与资源较多、供能情况较稳定国家之间的合作交流,争取拓宽能源渠道,分散供能风险。加速油气市场改革,增加天然气在我国供能结构所占比重,加大对开发新能源的支持力度,优化升级我国供能结构。
ZhouXiuJie Suggestions:Our country should strengthen and more resources/Energy situation is stable cooperation between countries,To broaden the channels of energy,Dispersion energy risk.Accelerate the reform of oil and gas market,Increase in China's energy structure of natural gas proportion,Strengthen the development of new energy support,China energy structure optimization and upgrading.
国家发展和改革委员会副主任、国家能源局局长刘铁男今年初在全国能源工作会议上说,我国将优化能源开发布局,有序开工重大能源项目,确保能源生产总量稳定,加强重点能源生产基地建设,加强能源输送通道建设,加强石油、天然气、煤炭等储备能力建设。
The national development and reform commission deputy director/National energy bureau chief LiuTieNan earlier this year in the national work conference on energy,China will optimize energy development layout,In order to start a major energy projects,To ensure total energy production stability,Strengthen the key energy production base construction,To strengthen the energy transport channel construction,Strengthen the oil/gas/Such as coal reserve capacity building.
“目前中国的石油储备能力为40天,美国战略石油储备天数高达200天以上,不及美国的1/7。”中国社会科学院工业经济研究所能源经济研究室副研究员白玫博士接受《中国产经新闻》采访时指出:“加大我国石油储备能力,增加石油贸易话语权。”
"At present China's oil reserve capacity for forty days,The United States strategic petroleum reserve days up to 200 days or more,Less than 1/7 of the United States."The Chinese academy of social sciences institute of industrial economy energy economic research associate researcher Dr BaiMei accept[China sankei shimbun]Interview pointed out that:"Increase China's oil reserve capacity,Increase the oil trade right."
周望军强调:国内的自给率是必须保证的。国际油价和地缘政治相关,环境恶劣,变化复杂。我们的需求量太大,增长速度太快, 所以,我们需要两条腿走路,一方面在国内加大勘探开发力度,另一方面千万百计找资源,才能满足我们的需要。
Weeks at army emphasize:Domestic degree of self sufficiency is must guarantee.International oil prices and geopolitical related,Bad environment,Change complex.We demand is too big,Growth too fast, so,We need two legs,On the one hand in domestic increase exploration and development strength,On the other hand conider to find resources,To meet our needs.
“我国资源储备丰富,耽于勘探开采技术的欠缺,页岩气、煤层气等清洁能源的利用率一直低下。积极吸收先进开采技术、鼓励企业发展技术实力、加大资源开采的投资力度,提高清洁能源的使用效率。配合风能、光伏等新能源的应用,力求提高自我供给能力,保证供能安全。”周修杰也表示赞同。
"Rich in resources reserves,Indulge in exploration and exploitation of the lack of technology,Shale gas/Coalbed methane (CBM) and clean energy utilization has been low.Actively absorb advanced production technology/Encourage enterprise development technical strength/Strengthening resource mining investment,Improve the efficiency in the use of clean energy.With wind/The application of photovoltaic and other new energy,Make every effort to raise self supply capacity,Ensure energy security."ZhouXiuJie also agreed.
“建立并完善现货、期货等交易市场,促进我国在油气贸易中掌握主动。”周修杰说:“同时加快国内油气市场改革,促进国内外市场的联动,使得我国的供应及需求及时影响国际市场,如此一来才能反客为主,夺取定价权。”
"To establish and perfect the spot/Futures trading market,To promote China's oil and gas trade have the initiative."ZhouXiuJie said:"At the same time to speed up the domestic oil and gas market reform,Promote the linkage of the domestic and international market,Which the country's supply and demand on the international market in time,So to gain the initiative,Take pricing."
未来,作为石油等大宗商品的主要增长地区,建设我国石油保障体系任重道远,是一国能源、货币、市场体系的综合运用,需要魄力,更需要耐心。
The future,As oil and other commodities of the main growth areas,The construction of the country's oil security system shoulder heavy responsibilities,Is one country energy/currency/Market system comprehensive use,Courage to,Need more patience.
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