虽然阿根廷政府近来将本年度小麦出口配额下调了150万吨，但是到本年度结束时，政府可能发放类似数量的出口配额，届时库存规模将趋于明朗。

Although the Argentine government recently will this year's wheat export quota cut 1.5 million tons,But to this year's end,The government may issue similar amount of export quotas,The inventory scale will tend to be clear.

　　目前阿根廷冬小麦收割工作只完成了三分之一左右，收割工作通常持续到一月份。

Currently Argentina winter wheat harvest work finished only the 1/3,The harvest work usually lasts until January.

　　阿根廷小麦协会（ArgenTrigo）主席Santiago Labourt称，政府明年二月份可能最终再发放100到150万吨小麦出口配额，因为从上年结转的小麦供应过剩。

Argentina wheat association(ArgenTrigo)Santiago chairman Labourt says,The government in February next year may ultimately to issue 100 to 1.5 million tons of wheat export quota,Because from the previous year bring forward wheat oversupply.

　　ArgenTrigo预计2012/13年度小麦产量为1050万吨，结转库存为100万吨，国内用量约为550万吨，这意味着2012/13年度小麦出口供应在600万吨左右。这与政府本月下调出口配额前的出口计划相当。

ArgenTrigo 2012/13 is expected to wheat yield is 10.5 million tons,Carry forward inventory for 1 million tons,Domestic consumption is about 5.5 million tons,This means that the 2012/13 annual wheat export supply in 6 million tons.The government cut export quota this month before the export plan was.

　　但是阿根廷农业部长Lorenzo Basso称，小麦期末库存甚至达到了250万吨，这意味着国内用量和出口供应在1200万吨左右。

But Argentina's agriculture minister Lorenzo Basso said,Wheat closing stock even reached 2.5 million tons,This means that the domestic consumption and export supply in 12 million tons.

　　据美国农业部的数据显示，本年度阿根廷是全球第五大小麦出口国，大部分小麦出口到了邻国巴西。但是如果政府维持下调后的出口配额，阿根廷的出口地位可能降至第七。阿根廷小麦出口供应减少将促使巴西转向北美供应。

According to the U.S. department of agriculture data display,This year's Argentina is the world's fifth largest wheat exporter,Most of the wheat exported to neighboring Brazil.But if the government to maintain after cut export quotas,Argentina's export status may drop to the seventh.Argentina wheat export supply will be reduced to Brazil to North America supply.

　　今年六月份阿根廷政府表示，计划本年度出口约600万吨小麦，但是洪涝及其他问题促使政府将小麦出口配额下调到了450万吨。

In June this year the Argentine government said,Plan this year about 6 million tons of wheat export,But floods and other problems have prompted the government to wheat export quota down to 4.5 million tons.

　　阿根廷农业部预计2012/13年度小麦产量为1150万吨，而阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所预计小麦产量为1010万吨。

Argentina's department of agriculture is expected to 2012/13 annual wheat yield is 11.5 million tons,And Argentina Buenos Aires cereals exchange is expected to the wheat yield is 10.1 million tons.

　　阿根廷政府严格控制小麦和玉米出口，只有当国内需求得到满足后才允许出口小麦和玉米。

The Argentine government strictly control wheat and corn export,Only when the domestic demand satisfied is allowed to export wheat and corn.