上周国务院关税税则委员会发布《关于2013年关税实施方案的通知》，焦炭40%的出口关税明年起被取消。这给正处于上涨行情的焦炭一股新的上行动力，期价直接上攻1700元/吨整数关口，虽然连续几日未能突破，但目前维持高位振荡格局。出口关税的取消能真正使焦企经营情况改善，使焦炭价格大幅上行么？笔者认为答案未必能够令人乐观。

Last week the tariff commission of the state council issued[About 2013 tariff implementation plan of the notice],Coke 40% of export tariffs next year is cancelled.This is in the rise of coke is a new rising power,QiJia direct attack on 1700 yuan/ton integer gates,Although continuous days failed to break through,But now maintain high oscillation pattern.Export tariffs to cancel can really make coke enterprises to improve management,Make coke prices sharply upward yao?The author thinks that the answer may not be able to an optimistic.

　　40%关税致焦炭出口量大幅下滑通过对比过去几年的焦炭出口情况，可以看到，自2008年8月20日焦炭出口关税由25%上调为40%之后，焦炭出口量始终保持低位。尽管国家对于出口焦炭有每年几百万吨的配额限制，但额度基本上均未能用满，2012年1月至11月的焦炭总出口量仅为95万吨；而在2004年之前，由于国内鼓励焦炭出口，焦炭年均出口量在1000万吨以上，约占当时国内焦炭产量的10%，占全球焦炭贸易总量的50%.因此，近几年焦炭出口量大幅下滑，主要原因是由于40%关税带来的高成本所致。

40% tariff to coke exports fell sharply over the past several years by comparing the coke export situation,Can see,Since the 21 August 2008 coke export tariffs by 25% to 40% after raised,Coke exports remain low.Although the national for export coke has every year millions of tons of quota restrictions,But line basically failed to use full,In January 2012 to November coke's exports only for 950000 tons;In 2004 years ago,As the country encourages coke export,Coke with an average annual output of over 10 million tons,At that time China accounts for about 10% of the coke production,Accounted for 50% of the total global coke trade. So,In recent years, coke exports fell sharply,The main reason is because of the high cost of 40% tariff brings caused by.

　　取消出口关税有利焦化行业焦炭出口关税的取消是行业大背景内忧外患下的产物。一方面，随着国内焦炭供应严重过剩，焦企由于长期亏损，使得整个行业都处于十分低迷的状态，停产减产非常严重；另一方面，世贸组织对中国的贸易保护主义不断提出质疑，并多次施加压力。基于这两方面因素的影响，近日在2013年的商品出口关税中，焦炭出口终于开闸。

Cancel the export tariff favorable coking industry coke export tariffs cancellation was industry background and many of the product.On the one hand,Along with the domestic coke supply serious surplus,Coke enterprises as a result of long-term losses,Make the whole industry are in very bad state,Production output is very serious;On the other hand,The world trade organization (wto) to China's trade protectionism constantly questioned,And put pressure on many times.Based on the two aspects of the influence of the factors,Recently in 2013 in commodity export tariffs,Coke export finally breaking.

　　这一消息给我国低迷的焦炭现货市场带来了新的希望。首先，取消关税将有利于国内焦炭的出口现状。以目前天津港1730元/吨的平仓价来看，按美元计价约为280美元/吨，如果收取40%的关税，税收就要112美元/吨，出口价格接近400美元/吨。关税取消之后，对于进口国而言，国内焦炭有明显的价格优势。其次，国内焦炭产能过剩较为严重，一旦增加出口量将使得一部分产量能够被国外需求消化。

This message to our country the coke spot market downturn has brought new hope.First of all,Cancel the tariff will help domestic coke export status.At the current port 1730 yuan/tons of closing price to see,According to the U.S. currency about $280 / ton,If a 40% tariff,Tax will be $112 / ton,Export prices close to $400 / ton.Tariff cancel after,As for the importer,Domestic coke have clear price advantage.secondly,Domestic coke overcapacity serious,Once the increase exports will make part of the production can be foreign demand digestion.

　　配额制度存在限制焦炭出口关税取消的作用不可忽视的一点是，由于出口存在配额制度，使得每年可供出口量对于消耗国内产能的作用相对有限。在2006年11月征收焦炭关税之前，国内焦炭出口量每年超过1000万吨，占整个全球焦炭贸易量的50%，占国内焦炭产量的10%左右，整个出口比例较大。

Quota system has limitation coke export tariffs to cancel role can not be ignored that,Due to the existing export quota system,Make every year for exports to domestic consumption capacity relatively limited role.In November 2006 collection of coke before duty,Domestic coke exports each year more than 10 million tons,Accounted for 50% of the whole global coke trade,China accounts for about 10% of the coke production,The whole export larger proportion.

　　而由于国家对资源类商品的出口并不支持，过去几年的国内出口年度配额从未超过1000万吨。目前国内焦炭的年度产量已经达到4.5亿吨，年产能更是接近6亿吨。因此整个配额占产量的比重较小，短期内可能无法迅速大幅刺激焦炭出口，只是小幅缓解了国内焦炭供应过剩的压力。

And because the state resources goods export does not support,In the past few years domestic export quotas for the year never more than 10 million tons.At present domestic coke's annual output is 450 million tons,Annual production is close to 600 million tons.So the whole quota proportion of production smaller,In the short term may not be able to quickly greatly stimulate the coke export,Only modest easing domestic coke supply surplus pressure.

　　同样对焦企而言，拥有出口配额的大型焦企，出口商品时将获取40%的关税作为利润，而对不具备出口配额的独立小型焦企却未能有任何改变。

The same focus for enterprises,Have a large coke enterprises export quotas,Export commodities will get a 40% tariff as profit,But to do not have export quota independent small formed coke enterprises failed to have any change.

　　出口关税下调对焦炭期货作用有限对期货市场来说，这次关税调整并不会引起特别大的行情，更多地体现在消息面的短时行情上，这主要是由于焦炭出口配额暂时未能放开，难以对国内焦炭的整体形势带来特别明显的实质性变化，因此焦炭不具备出现连续猛涨的可能性。

Export tariffs to coke futures limited role for in futures market,The tariff adjustment will not cause special big market,More reflected in the short-term market on the news,This is mainly due to the coke export quota temporarily not let go,Is difficult to the overall situation of domestic coke bring special obvious substantial changes,Therefore coke does not have the possibility of consecutive has soared.

　　相关业内人士表示，关税取消只是迎合世贸组织，担忧中国不可能完全放开实质性出口。一是担忧配额制能否放开。世贸组织对中国取消焦炭关税的要求由来已久，中国勉强放开出口更多出自于对拯救焦炭行业的一种态度，因此取消焦炭出口配额大幅开放资源型商品的可能性并不大。二是担忧国外到底能消化多少国内出口的焦炭。目前全球经济正处于金融危机以来的衰退期，即使大幅出口国内剩余的1亿多吨焦炭，国外也未必有这么多的焦炭需求。因此，从目前来看，焦炭40%的出口关税明年起被取消，对期货市场带来的效应未必有人们想象中那么大。

Related to the personage inside course of study says,Tariff cancel only cater to the world trade organization (wto),Worries about China can't completely let go of substantial export.One is the worry quota system can let go.The world trade organization (wto) in China has cancelled coke tariff requirement,China forced open export more to save coke industry from a kind of attitude,Cancelled coke export quota greatly and opening up the possibility of the goods is not big.The second is what concerns abroad can digest many domestic export coke.At present the global economy is in the midst of a recession since the financial crisis,Even if the rest of the domestic exports substantially more than 100 million tons of coke,Foreign also may not have so much coke demand.so,It seems,Coke 40% of export tariffs next year is cancelled,The futures market the effects may not have people imagination in so big.