元旦来到，新的一年2013年开始了。回望2012，中国进出口贸易着实不易，增速放缓已成板上钉钉，远低于年初设定的全年外贸增长10%的目标。商务部部长陈德铭28日说，预计全年中国外贸增长6%左右。

New Year's day came,The New Year began in 2013.Look back at 2012,China import and export trade is really not easy,The slowing is board nail nails,Is far lower than the set at the beginning of the year's target of 10% of China's foreign trade growth.The ministry of commerce minister Chen deming said 28,The China's foreign trade growth is expected to around 6%.

　　12月30日的《经济日报》在一篇“世界经济”的报道中，题目用了“风雨中奋力前行”的字眼，形象地勾勒了错综复杂、充满变数的全球经济整体环境，2012年中国外贸低迷似乎也在情理之中。

On dec. 30, the[Economic daily]In a"The world economy"The report,Topic with the"The wind and rain to move on"The word,Image to draw the outline of the complex/Global economy overall environment of uncertainty,In 2012 China's foreign trade downturn seems to be reasonable.

　　对于去年难以完成外贸增长目标的原因，不少专家、学者都作了许多解读，有的用中国外贸内外受“夹板气”来分析。在全国商务工作会议上，陈德铭认为，全球市场需求不足，国内各种要素成本上升，国际大宗原材料价格下降令进口“量增价减”，以及国际贸易保护主义的抬头是其原因。

Why it is difficult to fulfill the target of foreign trade growth for last year,Many experts/Scholars have made a lot of reading,Some with inside and outside China's foreign trade"GaBanQi"To analyze.At a national conference on our business,Chen deming think,The global market demand,Rise in the cost of domestic various elements,International bulk raw material prices decline to imports"Increase of price reduction",As well as international trade protectionism is the head of the reasons.

　　陈部长分析得很有道理，这也是众所周知的缘由；笔者认为，假如要撩起中国外贸出口低迷的面纱，不妨也可以从如下几个视角来透视：

Minister Chen analysis is very reasonable,This is also known as the reason;The author thinks that,If want to raising China's foreign trade export downturn,Might as well also can from the following several perspective perspective:

其一、中国制造“疲势”渐显。 one/Made in China"Tired -"faded.

　　2012年工业企业效益不佳，前期均为利润下滑，等到了10月份经济短期回暖，我们方看到规上企业实现利润增长。

2012 industrial enterprise benefit not beautiful,Early are declining profits,Wait to short-term economic warmer in October,We see rules on enterprise profits increased.

　　很长时间，中国制造业一直都是充当带动经济增长的主力军，自2012年第三季度开始，不少制造行业停工关厂的现象时有出现，制造业开始明显放缓的迹象渐渐清晰，难怪不少国外舆论担忧，中国经济有“硬着陆”之忧。

A long time,China's manufacturing industry has been as drive the main force of economic growth,Since the third quarter of 2012,The phenomenon of many manufacturing industries shutdown close factory appear frequently,Manufacturing has obvious signs of slowing gradually clear,It is no wonder that many foreign public opinion,China's economy has"A hard landing"The sorrow.

　　有“信心根基”之称的中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)，整年运行的轨迹也是“步伐沉重”，全年数度连续几个月低于景气临界点50，这是09年金融海啸以来鲜见的。从这运行曲线，可以窥见不少产业经济的萎靡不振态势，特别是中小企经济更是难以乐观。商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院国际市场研究部副主任白明在接受《人民日报》采访中指出，中国在国际市场上的分工也发生变化，越南等东南亚国家的产品在国际市场上的份额正在上升；今年很多时候利用外资都在下降，这对加工贸易影响比较大。白明认为外贸增速下滑此外还有美国“再工业化”、欧美鼓励发展实体经济等因素。

There are"Faith foundation"Known as the Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers index(PMI),Throughout the operation of track too"Pace of heavy",Annual number of consecutive months less than 50 (critical point,This is the rare since the 09 financial tsunami.From the operating curve,Can see a lot of industry economic slump,Especially the sme economic more optimistic.The ministry of commerce international trade and economic cooperation research institute international market research, deputy director of the bai Ming in to accept[People's Daily]In an interview that,Division of labor in China in the international market is changing,South-east Asian countries such as Vietnam's products in the international market share is rising;This year a lot of times the use of foreign capital are in decline,The influence of processing trade.Bai Ming think foreign trade growth in the United States"And industrialization"/Europe and the United States encourage the development of the real economy and other factors.

　　正如白明所指，今日的中国,也正由于产业、出口和就业结构的持续升级,劳动力等所有要素成本亦全面迅速增加, 逼使低工资就业制造业加速脱离中国，越南、泰国等新兴国家渐渐成为不少“MADE IN CHINA”的替代地区，中国制造业经济萎缩之忧已近在眼前。以出口导向为主的劳动密集型产业的“萎缩之忧”，竞争力下滑，恐怕可以视为中国外贸出口低迷的一层厚重面纱。

As referred to in bai Ming,Today's China,Is also due to the industry/Export and employment the continual upgrading of the structure,All elements such as labor costs also increase quickly in an all-round way, Force low wages and employment manufacturing speed from China,Vietnam/Emerging countries such as Thailand becoming a lot"It IN CHINA"Replacement parts of the,China's manufacturing economy atrophy of the sorrow has been immediate.Mainly export-oriented of labor-intensive industries"Atrophy of the sorrow",competitive,I'm afraid can be regarded as China's foreign trade export downturn a thick layer of veil.

其二、吸引外资的劲儿有点“软”。 The second/Is a bit of attraction foreign capital"soft".

　　近日的例行记者会上，商务部发言人沈丹阳说，2012年的头11个月中，外国直接投资总额达到1000.2亿美元，同比下降3.6%。

Recently the routine press conference,Commerce ministry spokesman ShenDanYang said,In the first 11 months of 2012,Foreign direct investment totaled $100.02 billion,Decreased by 3.6% year-on-year.

　　尽管数据显示，2012上半年，中国吸收外资超越美国跃居世界第一宝座，可吸引外资盛况难再已是不争的事实。2012年全年中国实际使用外资有望达到1100亿美元，这个量是比同期出现下降的。从一些沿海地区的统计数据可以看出，吸收外资“负增长”的城市很多，有的甚至是20-30%的下滑。

Although data shows,In the first half of 2012,China's foreign investment beyond the leaps to the world first throne,Can attract foreign capital pomp difficult again already is the fact that.For the year 2012 China actually using a foreign investment is expected to total $110 billion,This amount is to fall over the same period.Can be seen from some statistical data in the coastal area,Absorption of foreign capital"Negative growth"A lot of city,Some even 20-30% of the decline.

　　通过比对沿海外贸依存度较大的地方经济数据可以看出，“引进来”不好的区域也往往是外贸“不彰”的地方，特别是出口增速骤降较为厉害。外资表面上看是资金的引入，可这“钱”和钱的性质是不一样，其有深刻的“要素”内涵。透过资金这一载体，与之进来的还有管理、经营、技术、品牌和消费渠道，还有发展理念的提升。

Through the comparison of the coastal foreign trade dependence of local economic data can be seen,"Introduction to"Bad areas tend to be foreign trade"Is not clear"The place where,Especially in export growth plunged more severe.The introduction of foreign capital on the surface is money,Can this"money"And the nature of the money is not the same,It has profound"elements"The connotation of the.Funds through this carrier,Come in and with the management/business/technology/Brand and consumer channels,And the development of the concept of ascension.

　　“稳外贸”不能忽视引进外商投资这一环节。

"Stability of the foreign trade"Can't ignore the introduction of foreign investment in this link.

其三、频繁贸易摩擦掣肘外贸出口前行。 thirdly/The frequent trade friction constraints export.

　　外贸企业的生存环境日趋困难，与频繁的贸易摩擦引发的各种贸易保护主义政策沉渣泛起不无关系。

Foreign trade enterprise survival environment is becoming increasingly difficult,With frequent trade friction caused by all kinds of trade protectionism policy on sediment is relationship.

　　2012年，可称为世界贸易争端和贸易保护主义“不平凡”的一年，中国外贸出口面临的贸易摩擦此起彼伏、层出不穷。美国贸易代表罗恩.柯克说，在加入世界贸易组织11年后，中国仍在违反贸易规则，滥用申诉机制进行报复。日前在向国会提交的年终报告中，柯克说：“中国在几个特定领域的贸易政策和做法尤其令美国担心。”

In 2012,,Can be called the world trade disputes and trade protectionism"Do not ordinary"Of a year,China's foreign trade export facing the trade friction/Emerge in endlessly.. The U.S. trade representative RON kirk said,After 11 years in joining the world trade organization,China is still in violation of trade rules,Abuse complaint mechanism of retaliation.In the annual report to congress,Kirk said:"China's trade policies and practices in the field of several specific especially worried about to the United States."

　　有贸易报告表明，美国已经从抓住中国货币问题不放转向更加关注隐性贸易保护主义，仅在世贸组织，美国已对中国提起15宗诉讼。如今“大打出手”反倾销不光有欧美，甚至还有韩国、印度等等。光伏产业的遭遇绝不是孤例，如果没有很好的整体因应策略，中国的国际市场将越来越困难。

A report shows that trade,From the United States has hold problems China's currency to pay more attention to the recessive trade protectionism,Only in the world trade organization (wto),The United States has 15 cases of litigation in China.now"brawl"Anti-dumping not only with Europe and the United States,Even in South Korea/India, etc..Photovoltaic industry experience is by no means isolated cases,If there is no good coping strategies as a whole,China's international market will more and more difficult.

　　此外，我们也应该好好反思，贸易保护主义缘何一而再、再而再地剑指中国？中国出口结构、中国制造的用工环境及成本、技术创新与依靠政府补贴等有没有问题？肆无忌惮的保护主义剑指中国，自我保护的意识和依法力争的能力是不是存在许多不足，反制策略该怎么做到有效、有力、有为？实现中国外贸的可持续发展，这些“滔滔巨浪”肯定是要面对的，严峻挑战目前不单需要勇气，更要有技巧、手段、能力。

In addition,We also should have a good reflection,Wondering why trade protectionism again/Again and again to the sword to China?China's export structure/Made in China labor cost and the environment/Technology innovation and rely on government subsidies, etc. Do you have any questions?Unbridled protectionism sword to China,Ego to protect consciousness and strive for is the ability of many deficiencies in accordance with the law,Cs strategy how to do it effectively/powerful/for?Realize the sustainable development of China's foreign trade,these"Surging waves"It must be faced,Severe challenges at present not only need courage,More skilled/means/Ability to.

　　或许，从许多经济预测中，我们可以憧憬2013年的整体经济形势应可优于2012年，但假如眼前的外贸形势改观不足，中国经济形势的暖意还能感受多久？我们说经济成长需要注重需求的提升，可出口不足，加上不是一时可以大力拉起的消费不足，最终需求从何而来？

perhaps,From the many economic forecast,We can look forward to 2013, the overall economic situation can be better than in 2012,But if the sight of the foreign trade situation of the change,How long can warm feelings of China's economic situation?We say need to pay attention to the needs of economic growth,Can export deficiency,Plus one can to pull up the consumption,Final demand come from?

　　国家发改委副主任张晓强12月29日在出席第二届北大经济国富论坛时表示，预计明年经济增长7.5%左右，CPI同比上涨3.5%左右。媒体称，这是中央政府官员首次公开预测2013年的经济增长和物价涨幅目标。未来几年经济增速调整一下，增长放慢当然也不尽是坏事，关键是经济结构调整和产业结构优化要加快呀！稳外贸总比刺激楼市繁荣对中国经济更有好处，宏观经济未来走向与路径要“重民生、提质量”，中国外贸的“质”的建设和提升也同样重要。

, deputy director of the national development and reform commission ZhangXiaoJiang December 29, when the second north economic compile BBS said,Around 7.5% of economic growth is expected next year,CPI rose by 3.5%.Media reports said,This is the first time the central government officials publicly forecasting economic growth in 2013 and prices rise.Adjust the next few years economic growth,Growth slowed down, of course, not a bad thing,The key is the adjustment of economic structure and industrial structure optimization to speed up!Stimulate the property market on foreign trade is better than more is good for China's economic prosperity,Macro economic future direction and path"Heavy people's livelihood/To the quality",China's foreign trade"The quality"The construction and promotion are also important.