国际贸易    

The international trade    

　　刚刚结束的2012年对于中国的外贸领域无疑是艰难的，虽然世界经济的整体低迷走势让人们对外贸数据已经不再抱有两位数增长的乐观预期，但实际的回落幅度还是出乎很多人的预料。

Just the end of 2012 to China's foreign trade field is difficult,Although the overall downturn dented let people of the world economy to foreign trade data is no longer with the optimistic forecasts double-digit growth,But the actual drop range or not many people expected.

　　商务部的最新统计数据显示，预计2012年进出口总额3.8万亿美元以上，与2011年相比增速仅为6%左右，未能实现全年10%的目标。而2011年，我国进出口总额增速曾高达22.5%。

The latest statistics show that the ministry of commerce,Total volume of imports and exports in 2012 is expected to more than 3.8 trillion dollars,Only about a 6% growth compared with 2011,To realize the year's target of 10%.And in 2011,China's total import and export growth have as high as 22.5%.

　　我国进出口贸易遭遇了一次急速回落，这个曾经助推中国经济高速增长的引擎在过去一年的个别月份一度面临几近熄火的尴尬境地。与此同时，针对中国产品的贸易摩擦大幅上升，四处起火。去年前三季度，中国出口产品遭遇国外贸易救济调查55起，涉案金额243亿美元，增长近8倍。

Import and export trade in our country had a down,This used to boost China's economic growth engine in the past year of individual once face nearly die of embarrassment.At the same time,According to China's trade friction has soared,Around the fire.In the previous three quarters of last year,China's export products in foreign trade remedy investigation 55,Involved in the amount of $24.3 billion,Growth nearly eight times.

　　改革开放为中国叩开财富之门，而引领中国走入世界大门的，是“进口”和“出口”两条财富流通渠道。加入世贸组织释放的改革红利成就了过去十多年的高速增长，但随着世界经济格局的转变以及中国传统比较优势的衰减，中国对外开放的战略正在经历一场深刻的转型。

Reform and opening up to the door of wealth in China,And lead China into the world of the gate,is"import"and"export"Two channels of wealth.Accession to the wto to release the reform of the dividend has done in the past ten years of rapid growth,But with the change of the world economic pattern and decay of Chinese traditional comparative advantage,China's opening to the outside of the strategy is undergoing a profound transformation.

　　不可否认的是去年以来，中国对世界经济的影响力不减反增，未来摆在中国面前的是如何调整贸易结构更趋合理，如何培育出口竞争新优势，以及如何按照中央经济工作会议的部署，“发挥进口对结构调整的支持作用，促进国际收支趋向平衡”。

It is undeniable since last year,China's influence on the world economy could not reverse,Before in China in the future is how to adjust the trade structure is more reasonable,How to cultivate new export competitive advantage,And how to according to the deployment of the central economic work conference,"Play a role of support for structural adjustment of import,To balance international payments".

　　南方都市报记者就此问题专访了中国国际经济交流中心秘书长、商务部原副部长魏建国。在他看来，扩大进口是目前中国自身发展和外交政治的需要。对于新一年的经济走向，魏建国认为2013年对于中国经济很可能是一个拐点，政策红利要大于不利因素，今年经济形势将回温向好。

Southern metropolis daily reporter interviews with the problem to the China international economic and exchange center secretary general/The former vice minister of ministry of commerce wei jianguo.In his opinion,To expand import is China's own development and the needs of diplomacy.To the economy of the New Year,Wei jianguo believes that in 2013 for China's economy is likely to be a turning point,Dividend policy is to be greater than the disadvantages,This year's economic situation will back to warm up well.

　　扩大进口有中国外交政治需要

Expand import with Chinese diplomatic and political needs

　　南都：刚刚结束的中央经济工作会议强调，“要稳定和扩大国际市场份额，发挥进口对结构调整的支持作用，促进国际收支趋向平衡”，“在扩大出口的同时重视进口”。你怎么看待“进口对结构调整的支持作用”？

SMW:Just the end of the central economic work conference,"To stabilize and expand the international market share,Play a role of support for structural adjustment of import,To balance international payments","In expanding export at the same time pay attention to import".What do you think of"Import of structure adjustment of the support"?

　　魏建国：一个国家的进口是整个生产型结构的重要组成部分。我国进口经历了几个阶段：最早进口主要集中于高新设备、成套设备和关键设备零部件方面；后来生产量提高，但由于我国资源缺乏，又开始大量进口资源，这是进口的第二阶段；第三阶段是进口发达国家高端消费品。

Mr Wei:The import of a country is an important part of the whole production structure.Import in our country has experienced several stages:The earliest import mainly concentrated in high-tech equipment/Complete sets of equipment and key components;Later production,But due to lack of resources in China,Began to import a large number of resources,This is the second phase of imports;The third stage is the developed countries import high-end consumer goods.

　　这三个阶段就说明了我国国内生产结构的调整：最初处于工业化初步阶段，重视生活生产加工，比如进口化纤设备织布、进口钻探设备勘探石油；而我国加入W T O后，中国变成世界工厂，就需要大量的铁、铜，矿产、原油(92.25,-0.67,-0.72%)等资源，凭借资源消耗、拼环境污染、廉价劳动力成为了世界工厂。而目前，我国则要改变长期粗放型的生产状态，同时还要拉动消费，因此就不得不进行产业结构调整。此时的进口，就需要引进高新技术设备，从而帮助自身吸收、消化、再创新。

The three stages that the adjustment of production structure in China:Initially at its early stage of industrialization,Pay attention to production and processing of life,Such as chemical fiber equipment imported weaving/Import prospecting for oil drilling equipment;And China's entry into W T After O,China become the world factory,It need a lot of iron/copper,mineral/Crude oil(92.25,0.67,- 0.72%)Such as resource,Relying on the resource consumption/Spell the pollution of the environment/Cheap labor has become the world's factory.And at present,In our country is to change the long-term extensive production status,Even at the same time consuming,So we have to adjust the industrial structure.At this time of the import,Introduction of high-tech equipment is required,To help self absorbed/digestion/And innovation.

　　此外，进口也可以稳定和扩大国际市场份额。我们的进口就是未来的出口。我国加工贸易占据贸易总额的一半以上，今年进口的多，国外依托我们生产加工就多，明年的出口也就多一些。

In addition,Import can be stable and expand international market share.We export is the import of the future.China's processing trade occupies more than half of total trade,This year to import,Abroad relying on our production process is much,Next year's exports will be more.

　　南都：经济层面之外的影响有吗？

SMW:Besides the influence of the economic level is?

　　魏建国：从政治外交上来讲，作为负责任的大国，中国也需要加大进口。出口是考虑自己的利益，进口则是考虑对方利益。美国之所以标榜自己是负责任的大国，就因为他们大量进口，世界第一进口大国。而中国是出口大国，长期对其他国家的贸易顺差导致部分国家颇有微词。而如果扩大进口，减少对方国家对中国的贸易逆差，解决往来国家的经济困难，很自然的就可以减少双边贸易摩擦，还能扩大中国的影响，增加经济盟友，提升国家地位。更重要的，这也是中国软实力的表现。

Mr Wei:From the political diplomacy,As a responsible power,China also needs to increase imports.Export is to consider their own interests,Imports is to consider the other benefits.America was flaunt oneself is a responsible power,Just because they have a lot of imports,The first import country.While China is exporter,To other countries for a long time of the trade surplus leads to some countries are displayed.And if expanded import,Reduce the trade deficit with other countries to China,Solution with the country's economic difficulties,Naturally can reduce the bilateral trade friction,Can also enlarge the influence of China,Increase economic ally,Improved the status.The more important,This is China's soft power.

　　“奖出限入”的政策必须改变

"The limit of prize in"The policy must be changed

　　南都：可以发现，从2008年国际金融危机后，我们就开始连年强调“进口”。为什么要反复强调？

SMW:Can be found,After the international financial crisis in 2008,We start in successive years"import".Why do you want to repeatedly?

　　魏建国：因为进口形势始终不尽如人意。目前我们所有的政策仍都是“奖出限入”，即奖励出口限制进口，进口不仅没有补贴，还要受到关税压制。这一政策必须改变。目前进口产品的范围还不够广、品种还不够多、降税幅度还不够大，还有巨大的潜力。

Mr Wei:Because the import situation is not satisfactory.Now all of our policies are still"The limit of prize in",The reward import export restrictions,Import not only subsidies,But also by the tariff.The policy must be changed.At present, the range of imported products is not enough/Enough varieties/Tax rate still is not big enough,There is huge potential.

　　南都：但2009年至今，每年对于“进口”的表述也呈现微妙变化，从“进出”结合，变成“进口和出口并重”、“积极扩大进口”，到今天明确进口对结构调整的作用。为什么会出现这种变化？

SMW:But since 2009,For each year"import"The statement has subtle changes,From the"In and out"In combination with,Become a"Import and export"/"Actively expand import",To clear today import effect on structure adjustment.Why will appear this kind of change?

　　魏建国：我认为是来源于对进口的阶段性认识，开始可能觉得进口是解决贸易摩擦的权益之计，没有看作长远的发展战略；第二，国家要加大内需，把消费品加入进来；现在我们要做自主创新的国家，又要考虑到做负责任的大国，有需要高新技术、成套设备、零部件的进口，所以这个变化是自然的，也是随着对进口认识的不断深化变化的。以前觉得进口这儿有潜力，摸着石头过河，后来我们看到可以把进口当做“抓手”。这说明我们对进口的认识在不断提高，对这项战略政策有了更充分的认识。

Mr Wei:I think it is made of imported stage,Start may feel import is to solve trade friction of the rights and interests of the project,Not as a long-term development strategy;The second,Countries should increase domestic demand,The consumer to join in;Now we are going to do independent innovation country,Also want to consider to do responsible power,High and new technology are needed/Complete sets of equipment/Parts of the import,So the change is nature,Also with the deepening of understanding of import.Think before import there is potential here,Across the river by groping the stone,Then we can see the import as"pupils".This shows that our understanding of the import in unceasingly to enhance,Understanding of the strategic policy has more fully.

　　南都：但有一个现实问题，根据海关公布数据，由于当前国际大宗原材料总体价格下降，我国进口增速出现回落，2012年11月我国进口零增长，前11月我国进口仅增长4.1%，而贸易顺差扩大至1995.4亿美元。为什么强调多年，“进口”形势还会出现回落？

SMW:But there is a real problem,According to data released by the customs,Due to the current international bulk raw material price drop,China's import growth eased back,In November 2012 import zero growth in China,Before November, China's import growth of only 4.1%,While the trade surplus expansion to $199.54 billion.Why emphasize for many years,"import"Situation will appear?

　　魏建国：现在进口难以提升的原因主要有两个，一是加工贸易进口大幅度减少，使得我们进口幅度降低。其次是我国内需不足。即便最近公布的一些政策利于进口，比如强调扩大内需调结构、扩大城镇化、减少服务业的税收负担等，但这些政策实施也有滞后效应，一般需要5-7个月，因此，我预计今年3月进口才可能会出现拐点。

Mr Wei:Now import to promote the cause of the main there are two,It is processing trade import greatly reduced,We import range reduced.Second is the insufficient domestic demand in China.Even recently published policies conducive to imports,Such as emphasis on expanding domestic demand structure/Expansion of urbanization/Reduce the tax burden on service industry and so on,But these policy there is also a lagging effect,General need 5 to 7 months,so,I expect imports may turn in March this year.

　　时机成熟了就必须扩大进口

Ripe for must be expanded import

　　南都：这是你连续第三年就来年经济工作安排呼吁扩大进口，为什么要不断呼吁？这种呼吁有效果吗？

SMW:This is your third year in a row, economic work next year is calling for the expanded import,Why want to continue?This calls for effective?

　　魏建国：我在商务部工作那么多年，经常作为中国政府代表团代表出去谈判，不用说阿拉伯国家，那些非洲国家都很希望我们进口一些他们的东西，更何况去那些发达国家，那些发达国家多次提出来，“你们顺差多，我们逆差，你们应该多进口些我们国家的东西”。所以进口越来越阻碍着我们和各个国家的关系，一个和谐的双边、多边贸易关系，必须要加强进口。

Mr Wei:I work in the ministry of commerce of so many years,Often as a representative of the Chinese government delegation out negotiations,Needless to say the Arab countries,The African countries are very hope that we import some of their things,What's more, to the developed countries,Those developed countries several times,"Your surplus more than,Our deficit,You should import more the things of our country".So the import hindering our relations with each country is becoming more and more,A harmonious bilateral/Multilateral trade relations,Must strengthen the imports.

　　不过我们国家以往一直都强调出口，讲究贸易平衡，那个时候是国内经济形势使然，而目前强调调结构，改变经济增长方式，又要做负责任的大国，时机成熟了，市场也有了，就必须扩大进口。

But our country in the past has been emphasis on exports,Pay attention to trade balance,Is the domestic economic situation at that time,And emphasizes the structure at present,Change the mode of economic growth,And to do responsible power,Ripe for,The market is,We must expand imports.

　　南都：“时机成熟”怎么理解？

SMW:"Time to mature"How to understand?

　　魏建国：我们有大量的外汇储备，国内市场需要这个东西，另外，其他国家也愿意卖给我们。一个愿买，一个愿卖；一个有钱，一个希望赚钱，看重你中国市场，时机刚刚好。此外结合当前国际经济形势，我国扩大进口，还可以帮助各国解决问题。在欧美形成危机、新兴国家发展低迷的时候，进口可以帮世界解决问题。

Mr Wei:We have a large number of foreign exchange reserves,The domestic market needs to this thing,In addition,Other countries are willing to sell it to us.A wish to buy,A willing to sell;A rich,A hope to make money,Regard your market in China,The timing just right.In addition with the current international economic situation,To expand import in our country,Still can help countries to solve the problem.In Europe and the formation of crisis/Emerging countries of slow development,Import can help the world solve the problem.

　　南都：那应该如何改善？

SMW:That should be how to improve?

　　魏建国：进口的范围可以再大一些，品种可以再多一些，关税降幅可以再大一些。一定要把进口作为长期的、改变外贸结构的战略任务，是战略而非战术。我建议从以下四个层面着手：

Mr Wei:The scope of import can again big some,Can some more variety,Tariffs may drop again big some.Must be imported as a long term/Change the structure of foreign trade strategy,Is the strategy rather than tactics.I suggest that from the following four aspects:

　　一、提高进口的战略角度。进口同时要加大知识产权保护力度，在尊重知识产权的前提下，多进口一些高新技术专利。即使部分国家对中国实施高科技出口管制也没有关系，常年的谈判经验告诉我们，不用急，一旦中国掌握技术，对方国家就立刻急于推销。

a/Improve the import of strategic point of view.Imports at the same time to strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights,On the premise of respect for intellectual property rights,Import more high-tech patent.Even if some countries to China to implement high-tech export control and no relationship,All the year round of negotiations experience tells us,Don't worry,Once you master and technology of China,Immediately to the other country to promote sales.

　　二、国家要加大鼓励进口的政策落实，扩大进口权，同时对于进口也要奖励。

The second/Countries should increase encourages the import of policy implementation,Enlarge the importation,At the same time for the import will be reward.

　　三、要在中国的重点城市开设进口商品博览会。

three/To open import commodities fair in China's major cities.

　　四、进口的方向也要有所调整，应该着重面向发展中国家。比如对巴西、拉美，他们长年一直大规模接收中国的出口，人家也希望贸易能够平衡。而对于发达国家，应该多进口高档日用消费品，进口那些能拉动消费，能解决新兴工业发展和实体经济的产品和技术。目前这些商品关税太高。

four/The direction of the import will be changed,Should be focused on the developing countries.Such as to Brazil/Latin America,They have been large-scale receiving the export of Chinese years,The somebody else also hope that trade can be balanced.For developed countries,Should import more high-grade consumer goods,Import that consumption,To solve the emerging industrial development and the real economy of the products and technology.Now these goods tariff is too high.

　　中国城镇化将加大日用品进口的需求

China urbanization will increase imports of commodities demand

　　南都：从今年起，又开始调低一批商品的进口关税，包括生活和医疗用品、零部件与原材料等在内五大类、超780种。你怎么看这次调减关税？

SMW:Since this year,Began to lower a batch of goods of import tariffs,Including life and medical supplies/Spare parts and raw materials, such as five types/Over 780 kinds of.What do you think of this time to reduce tariffs?

　　魏建国：可以说，此次降低关税的力度比以往都大。自2001年加入世贸组织之后，我国进口商品关税水平逐年降低。但降税的商品品种中，生活日用品、食品还可以进一步扩大。如果降税幅度加大，进口就能推动整个贸易格局向有利的方向转化。目前倡导推动城镇化发展，城镇化后居民对日用品的需求会越来越多。此外，目前降税只是针对企业，最终百姓得利反而很少，因此还要同步进行财税体制改革，顶层设计要配套。

Mr Wei:Can say,The reduction of tariff strength greater than ever before.After the accession to the wto since 2001,Import tariff level in China decreased year by year.But the products of lower taxes,Daily necessities of life/Food can also further expanded.If tax rate increase,Import can promote the trade pattern to the favorable direction.Now advocates promoting the development of urbanization,Urbanization after residents demand for commodities will be more and more.In addition,The lower taxes is only in view of the enterprise,Eventually people gain little instead,Therefore also synchronized fiscal and taxation system reform,Top design to form a complete set.

　　南都：扩大进口的时候，是否需要底线？

SMW:Expanded import,If you need the bottom line?

　　魏建国：不需要底线。要根据国情和市场的需要，我们有这个诚意，但同时要照顾到市场的需要，如果市场没有需要，也不能怪政府啊，愿意不等于需要。

Mr Wei:Don't need the bottom line.According to the national conditions and the needs of the market,We have the sincerity,But at the same time to take care of the needs of the market,If a market doesn't need,Also can't blame the government,Willing is not equal to need.

　　目前是中国企业走出去的最好时机

Now is the best time to go out of China enterprise

　　南都：过去十年我们一直依靠出口拉动经济，目前这种拉动作用还能持续多久？我国在出口方面的优势还存在吗？

SMW:Over the past decade we have been relying on exports,The current pull function can last long?The advantage of export in China still exist?

　　魏建国：告别多年来20%左右的高速增长，2012年全年外贸个位数增长几成定局。目前国内出口势头虽有所减弱，但仍存在。

Mr Wei:Say goodbye to around 20% growth for many years,For the year 2012 several entrenched singly growth of foreign trade.At present domestic export momentum is weakened,But there are still.

　　目前是中国企业和产品走出去的最好时机。各国经济都需要中国投资，不仅是技术建设，更重要的是制造业、实体经济。因为中国的投资或出口，不仅可以解决其财政紧张，还能帮他们解决就业。同时，目前很多国家，包括美国也意识到，虚拟经济解决不了问题，需要实体经济，加大制造业回归，加大就业改善。这两点正说明了现在是中国企业走出去的最好时机。

Now is the best time to go out Chinese enterprises and products.Economies need to be in the China investment,Construction is not only a technology,More important is manufacturing/The real economy.Because of China's investment or export,Not only can solve their financial strain,Can also help them solving the employment.At the same time,At present, many countries,Including the United States also realize it,Virtual economy doesn't solve the problem,Need to the real economy,Manufactured goods return,Increase employment.This acknowledgment that now is the best time to go out of China enterprise.

　　南都：前不久商务部发言人沈丹阳说过中国外贸和“走出去”面临着三座大山，其中一个就是国际经济形势低迷，导致贸易摩擦加剧，国外对中国企业的抵制也很厉害。

SMW:Recently the ministry of commerce spokesman ShenDanYang said and China's foreign trade"To go out"Faced with three big mountains,Is one of the international economic downturn situation,Lead to trade friction,A boycott of foreign enterprises in China also is very severe.

　　魏建国：根据我们统计，中国走出去的企业，有1/3成功，1/3继续谈判，还有1/3是失败的。失败的案例中有四种原因：对方对中国企业走出去抱有疑虑；中国企业对国外的程序不了解，走了弯路；第三个是实实在在遇到困难，有些国家对中国有敌意态度；第四个是双方的信任感不强，政策不到位，消息不透明。因此，企业无论出口还是“走出去”都要选对国家、选对项目、选对市场、选对合作伙伴、选择一个互利共赢的原则。

Mr Wei:According to our statistics,,Chinese go out of business,A third success,A third continue negotiations,And a third was a failure.There are four reasons for failure cases:Each other for Chinese enterprises to go out with doubts;Chinese do not understand the procedures of the foreign enterprise,Walk a detour;The third is truly in trouble,In some countries hostile attitude to China;The fourth is the trust of both sides is not strong,The policy does not reach the designated position,News is not transparent.so,Both export enterprise"To go out"Will choose the country/Choose the project/Choose the market/Select the right partner/Select a mutually beneficial and win-win principle.

　　今年是“改革年”，也是“开放年”

This year is"In the reform",Is also"In opening to the outside world"

　　南都：目前美国已经开始大力推进制造业回归，还要将苹果公司的生产线拿回部分在美国生产，我们国家传统的制造业该如何应对呢？你有什么建议呢？

SMW:At present, the United States have begun to vigorously promote manufacturing regression,Will apple production line back part of the production in the United States,Our country the traditional manufacturing industry how to respond?What do you suggest?

　　魏建国：最主要是让中国的实体经济回归，制定有利于实体经济发展的政策措施。其次，健全促进宏观经济稳定，支持实体经济发展的现代经济体系。近5年到10年来，我们对实体经济的投入和发展力度不够。

Mr Wei:The most important is to let China's real economy,Is beneficial to the development of the real economy policy measures.The second,Promote sound macroeconomic stability,Support the real economy of the development of modern economic system.Nearly 5 years to 10 years,Our investment and inadequate development of the real economy.

　　加大对实体经济政策的支持，首先要将一些税收和费用该减的就减，像央企也是这样，民企也是这样；第二个是一定要建立一个有利于实体经济发展的、具有中国特色的金融体系，也就是说银行要把企业变成服务的对象，不是企业怕银行、银行咬住企业，要从政策上扭转，要给它建立一个比较好的金融体系。

Strengthening the support policy to economic entity,First will some tax and fee of this reduction will reduce,Like renmin likewise,Corporation also is such;The second is must establish a beneficial to the development of the real economy/Of the financial system with Chinese characteristics,That is bank to enterprise become the object of service,Is not afraid of the bank/Bank bite enterprise,To turn from the policy,Will give it to establish a good financial system.

　　南都：面对当前的国际经济环境，在稳步提升我国外向型经济发展水平的同时，必须看到加快构建新的竞争优势已是当务之急。如何构建新的竞争优势呢？

SMW:In the face of the current international economic environment,Steadily promote the level of the development of China's export-oriented economy at the same time,Must see speed up the construction of a new competitive advantage is the urgent matter.How to build up new competitive advantage?

　　魏建国：当前亟须加快对外贸易转型升级，努力提高出口产品竞争力。首先，我们还是继续加大现有的加工贸易的创新升级，这是我们的优势。只不过我们现在加工的链条比较低端，把低端贸易高端化，我觉得是中国现有加工贸易杀出一条血路的唯一方法。今年是关键，因为再不做的话，我们就会重蹈以前30年来加工贸易拼资源消耗、拼劳动力红利、拼污染的覆辙。如何进行转型升级？要加大自主研发的力度、加大售后服务的力度、加大服务外包力度。今年是世界发展服务外包的最好时机。

Mr Wei:The current key to speed up the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade,To improve the export competitiveness.In the first place,We continued to intensify existing innovation and upgrading of processing trade,This is our advantage.But we are now processing chain is low,The low trade high-end,I think China is existing the only way to fight our way out of the processing trade.This year is the key,Because don't do it,We will repeat for 30 years before the processing trade spell resource consumption/Spell labor dividends/Spelling mistakes of the pollution.How to upgrade?To strengthen the independent research and development/Strengthen the after-sales service/Strengthen the service outsourcing.This year is the development of service outsourcing in the world the best time.

　　南都：你怎么看待2013年的外贸形势以及我们国家在今年的经济形势？

SMW:What do you think of the 2013 foreign trade situation in this year's economic situation and our country?

　　魏建国：今年的外贸形势面临的不确定性因素主要有：首先，我国最大的贸易伙伴———欧盟的债务危机解决前景不明朗；其次，美国经济数据恢复能否持续也是未知数；最后，今年的贸易保护主义可能比往年更为严重。不仅是美国、欧盟，我国和新兴国家之间的贸易摩擦可能也会加剧。

Mr Wei:This year's foreign trade situation is faced with the uncertainty of the factors:In the first place,China's largest trading partner -- - the eu debt crisis solution prospect unclear;The second,U.S. economic data recovery can be sustained is also unknown;At last,This year's trade protectionism may be more severe than usual.Is not only the United States/The European Union,Trade friction between China and emerging countries may also be increased.

　　2013年对于中国经济很可能是一个拐点。我估计今年很可能呈现这么几个特点：一是“改革年”，现在经济改革已经到了非改不可的时候了，预计今年将推进体制改革、财税改革，以及企业改革、政府改革，这样才能把改革的红利最大限度发挥出来。二是“开放年”，今年可能在这个基础上有更大的开放，比如说旅游、签证更加开放，我们的人员走出去将有更大的力度，可能形成更大的高潮。

In 2013 for China's economy is likely to be a turning point.I estimate that this year is likely to present a few characteristics:One is the"In the reform",Economic reform to change now is not the time,This year is expected to promote the reform of system/Finance and tax reform,And the enterprise reform/Government reform,So as to the reform of the dividend to the maximum.The second is"In opening to the outside world",More on the basis of this year may be in the open,Such as tourism/Visa more open,Our staff went out there will be more efforts,The climax of may form a bigger.

　　今年的经济形势将是“气温回升”，不管二三月份欧盟这个坎儿能不能迈过，我认为，中国的政策红利要大于不利因素，这也是最重要的。总体而言，对于我们国家2013年的经济形势，我还是比较乐观的。

This year's economic situation will be"The temperature rise",No matter 2 March had stridden the eu can the snag,I think,China's policy dividend to outweigh the disadvantages,This is the most important.In general,In 2013 the economic situation of our country,I am still optimistic.

　　●进口的范围可以再大一些、品种可以再多一些、关税降幅可以再大一些。一定要把进口作为长期的、改变外贸结构的战略任务，是战略而非战术。目前我们所有的政策仍都是“奖出限入”，即奖励出口限制进口，进口不仅没有补贴，还要受到关税压制。这一政策必须改变。

The scope of "import can again big some/Can some more variety/Tariffs may drop again big some.Must be imported as a long term/Change the structure of foreign trade strategy,Is the strategy rather than tactics.Now all of our policies are still"The limit of prize in",The reward import export restrictions,Import not only subsidies,But also by the tariff.The policy must be changed.

　　●自2001年加入世贸组织之后，我国进口商品关税水平逐年降低。但降税的商品品种中，生活日用品、食品还可以进一步扩大。如果降税幅度加大，进口就能推动整个贸易格局向有利的方向转化。目前倡导推动城镇化发展，城镇化后居民对日用品的需求会越来越多。此外，目前降税只是针对企业，最终百姓得利反而很少，因此还要同步进行财税体制改革，顶层设计要配套。

"After the accession to the wto since 2001,Import tariff level in China decreased year by year.But the products of lower taxes,Daily necessities of life/Food can also further expanded.If tax rate increase,Import can promote the trade pattern to the favorable direction.Now advocates promoting the development of urbanization,Urbanization after residents demand for commodities will be more and more.In addition,The lower taxes is only in view of the enterprise,Eventually people gain little instead,Therefore also synchronized fiscal and taxation system reform,Top design to form a complete set.

　　●2013年对于中国经济很可能是一个拐点。我估计今年很可能呈现这么几个特点：一是“改革年”，现在经济改革已经到了非改不可的时候了，预计今年将推进体制改革、财税改革，以及企业改革、政府改革，这样才能把改革的红利最大限度发挥出来。二是“开放年”，今年可能在这个基础上有更大的开放，比如说旅游、签证更加开放，我们的人员走出去将有更大的力度，可能形成更大的高潮。

"In 2013 for China's economy is likely to be a turning point.I estimate that this year is likely to present a few characteristics:One is the"In the reform",Economic reform to change now is not the time,This year is expected to promote the reform of system/Finance and tax reform,And the enterprise reform/Government reform,So as to the reform of the dividend to the maximum.The second is"In opening to the outside world",More on the basis of this year may be in the open,Such as tourism/Visa more open,Our staff went out there will be more efforts,The climax of may form a bigger.