2012年，世界依然笼罩在金融与经济危机的阴影之中。与缓慢的经济复苏相比，更需要警惕的是，经济全球化似乎已进入下行的通道。贸易保护主义上升，全球投资下降，加上技术垄断进一步强化，使经济全球化遭遇阵阵寒流。这样一种下行，是对世界经济困境的暂时反应，还是新环境中的长期特征？2012年留给了我们这样的疑问。

In 2012,,The world is still shrouded in the shadow of the financial and economic crisis.Compared with the slow pace of economic recovery,Need more vigilant,Economic globalization seems to have into the downlink channel.Rising trade protectionism,Global investment decline,Combined with technology monopoly to further strengthen,The economic globalization in the cold.Such a downside,Is temporarily reaction to the plight of the world economy,Or in the long-term features of the new environment?2012 left us such a question.

　　贸易保护主义上升

Rising trade protectionism

　　反倾销、反补贴、技术壁垒、绿色壁垒、337调查……2012年，传统的贸易保护手段有增无减，一些曾经陌生的贸易调查名目也走上前台。在这场贸易保护主义的“大战”中，美欧发达国家俨然成为挥舞大棒的主角。

anti-dumping/countervailing/Technical barriers/Green barriers/337 survey...In 2012,,The traditional trade protection means to grow,Some strange survey of trade names is on the front desk.In the trade protectionism"war"In the,The role of the us and European developed countries become a waving a big stick.

　　12月5日世界贸易组织(WTO)总干事拉米提交的2012《国际贸易环境发展概览》年度报告预计，2012年全球贸易增长率仅为2.5%，增速比去年下降50%。发达国家进口减少导致发展中国家出口下降。2013年全球贸易增长率仍将低于过去20年的平均增长水平。

The world trade organization (wto), dec. 5(The world trade organization (WTO))Submitted by the director-general (2012[The international trade environment development overview]The annual report is expected to,Global trade growth rate is only 2.5% in 2012,Growth fell by 50% than last year.Developed countries import reduce lead to decline in exports in developing countries.Global trade growth rate in 2013 will still lower than the average growth of the past 20 years.

　　正如拉米所言，本国就业和经济增长的压力成为各国政府采取贸易保护政策的主要动力。

As lam said,The pressure of employment and economic growth country become the main power of governments to take trade protection policy.

　　现代国际关系研究院世界经济研究所所长陈凤英指出，新形势下的贸易保护主义呈现出几种新态势——

Modern international relations institute world economy research institute ChenFengYing said,Trade protectionism under the new situation presents several new situation --

　　一是贸易摩擦从以往的劳动密集型产业蔓延至技术密集型产业。电信和新能源等新兴产业成贸易诉讼的多发领域。美国众议院情报委员会发布的华为、中兴有可能威胁美国国家安全的报告就是一例。

One is the trade friction from the previous labor-intensive industries spread to technology-intensive industry.Emerging industries such as telecommunications and new energy into trade action of multiple fields.The house intelligence committee of huawei/Zte is likely to threaten the safety of the national report is an example.

　　二是欧美一些发达国家运用技术性壁垒特别是“绿色壁垒”制造贸易障碍。

2 it is to use technical barriers, especially in some developed countries in Europe and America"Green barriers"Manufacturing trade barriers.

　　三是在知识产权保护领域对进口产品发难。美国密集发起的“337调查”是最典型的案例。

Three is in the field of intellectual property protection for imported products.The dense"337 survey"Is one of the most typical case.

　　在贸易保护主义冲击下，长期停滞的WTO多哈回合框架取得成果的希望更加渺茫。况且在专家看来，现在世界经贸面临的问题已非多哈回合能够解决。WTO必须重设规则，进行针对贸易与投资保护行为的新一轮谈判。

The impact of trade protectionism,Long-term stagnation of the doha round of The world trade organization (WTO) framework achievements more hope of success.Besides the expert opinion,Now is not the problem of the doha round world trade and can be solved.The The world trade organization (WTO) rules must be reset,In the new round of talks on trade and investment protection behavior.

　　与多边谈判陷入困境相反，2012年，区域性的贸易协定如雨后春笋般产生。2012年非洲举办的两届非盟首脑会议极少见地使用了同样的主题——“促进非洲区内贸易”，并提出非洲自贸区应在2017年的某个时间开始运转。

Contrary to multilateral talks in trouble,In 2012,,Regional trade agreements, such as have sprouted.2012 African two-time African union summit held little insight to use the same theme --"To promote regional trade in Africa",And African leaders should some time to start operation in 2017.

　　在亚太地区，2012年11月东亚领导人系列峰会期间，中日韩自由贸易协定(FTA)谈判、东盟十国与其他亚太六国的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)谈判正式启动，这两大谈判将与美国主导的《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》(TPP)谈判一起，成为未来几年亚太地区经贸一体化的重要支柱。

In the Asia Pacific region,In November 2012 east Asian leaders summit series,In Japan and South Korea free trade agreement(FTA)negotiations/Asean countries and the other six countries in the asia-pacific region[Regional comprehensive economic partnership agreements](RCEP)Negotiations launched,The two leading the negotiations with the United States[Across the Pacific strategic economic partnership agreement](TPP)Negotiations with,Become the important pillar of economic and trade integration in the asia-pacific region for years to come.

　　在拉美，智利、墨西哥、秘鲁和哥伦比亚四国签署了拉美太平洋联盟框架协议，成立了一个全新的拉美区域经贸合作组织。在多边谈判搁浅的情况下，区域性条约是世界贸易协商机制的一种补充，但是，它将给全球性贸易协商机制带来什么样的影响，仍待观察。

In Latin America,Chile/Mexico/Peru and Colombia four signed a framework agreement of the Pacific league of Latin America,Set up a new area of the Latin American economic and trade cooperation organization.Under the condition of stranded in multilateral negotiations,Regional treaty is one of the world trade negotiations mechanism,but,It will bring what kind of impact to global trade consultation mechanism,Still to be observed.

　　全球投资下降 技术垄断增强

Global investment decline Technology monopoly to enhance

　　与世界贸易受阻类似，全球投资也在走下坡路。联合国贸易和发展会议2012年10月发布的《全球投资趋势监测》报告指出，2012年上半年全球外国直接投资流入量总值同比下降8%，发展中经济体在全球外国直接投资总额中所占比例首次超过50%。

Similar to world trade blocked,Global investment is in decline.The United Nations conference on trade and development in October 2012[Global investment trend monitoring]The report pointed out that,In the first half of global foreign direct investment inflows in 2012 GDP fell by 8% year-on-year,Developing economies in the global foreign direct investment proportion of the total amount of more than 50% for the first time.

　　除了投资者风险意识增强的因素外，保护主义和去全球化思潮泛起的影响亦不可忽视。许多国家对一些核心领域的外国直接投资实施更严格的限制与监管。据相关统计，2011年44个世界主要国家和地区采取了67项影响外国投资的政策。为此，联合国贸易和发展会议不得不制定了全面的可持续发展投资政策框架。

In addition to the investor risk awareness of factors,Protectionism and globalization trend on the influence of also cannot be ignored.In many countries for some core foreign direct investment in the field of the implementation of more stringent restrictions and supervision.According to relevant statistics,2011 44 major countries and regions in the world to take the effect of 67 foreign investment policy.For this,The United Nations conference on trade and development had to formulate a comprehensive policy framework for the sustainable development of the investment.

　　此外，发达国家再工业化吸纳了国内资金，进一步冲击了对外投资。在发达国家掀起的“再工业化”浪潮中，美国着眼于改造本土工业，重塑竞争优势，以出口和投资拉动制造业复苏。欧盟以提升产业附加值为战略核心，依靠知识增长和新技术革命，增强发展数字经济潜力。

In addition,Developed countries and absorbing the domestic capital industrialization,Further impact the foreign investment.Raised in developed countries"And industrialization"In the tide,Reform the local industry focus on the United States,Reshape competitive advantage,To pull manufacturing exports and investment recovery.The European Union to enhance the industrial added value for the core strategy,Rely on the knowledge growth and the new technology revolution,Enhance the development of digital economy potential.

　　发达国家针对性地增强在电子信息、新能源、生物工程和新医药、新材料领域的投资比例，势必导致这些领域的全球资本更加稀缺，迫使发展中国家依靠自身力量加强高科技研发。

Developed countries to increase in the electronic information/New energy/Biotechnology and new medicine/Investment proportion in the field of new materials,Will inevitably lead to the field of global capital more scarce,Force in developing countries depend on own strength to strengthen high-tech research and development.

　　高科技是先进制造业的首要保障，因此发达国家势必增强对高端技术的垄断程度。通过严格的知识产权保护、高技术出口管制、贸易中的技术壁垒与跨国公司的保密措施，发达国家对战略性技术的控制越来越严。

High technology is the primary guarantee of the advanced manufacturing industry,Therefore developed countries will enhance the degree of monopoly of high-end technology.Through the strict protection of intellectual property rights/High technology export control/Trade of technical barriers and the security measures of trans-national corporations,Strict control of strategic technology is more and more developed countries.

　　美国经常对发展中国家发起的“337调查”就是一种知识产权调查。“337调查”是美国1930年《关税法》第337条款的通俗称谓，该条款的核心内容是调查进口中侵犯知识产权和不正当竞争的行为。实践中，90%为专利侵权调查。

The United States often in developing countries"337 survey"Is a kind of intellectual property rights."337 survey"Is the United States in 1930[Tariff act]Section 337 of the popular,Investigation and import of the core content of the clause is infringing an intellectual property right and unfair competition behavior.In practice,,90% for patent infringement.

　　经济全球化下行的新特点

Economic globalization downside of new features

　　与以往相比，此次经济全球化下行呈现出几个新的特点。

Compared with the past,The economic globalization will present a few new features.

　　一是发达国家成为阻碍经济全球化的主要行为体，政治因素成为经济全球化下行的重要动力。

One is the developed countries become hinder the main actors in the economic globalization,Political factors, economic globalization will become an important power.

　　在经济下行、失业率上升的压力下，发达国家执政者为了争夺选票，不惜通过贸易保护增加本地就业。同样，贸易保护政策是发达国家影响跨国公司活动的重要手段。因为跨国公司独立性、全球性的增强，是导致发达国家部分制造业空心化与贸易逆差的重要原因。

In the economic down/Under the pressure of rising unemployment,Developed countries continues to compete for votes,At through the trade protection to increase local employment.The same,Trade protection policy is an important means of developed countries influence multinational company activities.For multinational companies independence/The global increase,Is part of the manufacturing industry in the developed countries KongXinHua and trade deficit of the important reasons.

　　况且，经济全球化促使一些新兴国家群体性崛起，在此次金融危机后开始明显冲击发达国家主导的国际秩序。因此，以经济手段压制新兴国家的崛起，成为发达国家反全球化行动的长期动因。

besides,Economic globalization leads to some emerging countries group,After the financial crisis began to significantly impact international order dominated by the developed countries.so,By economic means to suppress the rise of emerging countries,Developed countries against globalization of action for a long time.

　　二是“集体取暖”可能使经济全球化面临更加难以打破的坚冰。此次危机中，不少国家通过区域经济合作，“集体取暖”。其结果是地区贸易关系与一体化的强化，短期内有利于区域内各国经济增长，长期来看却可能使经济全球化面临更高壁垒。

The second is"Collective heating"May make economic globalization face more difficult to break the ice.The crisis in the,Many countries through the regional economic cooperation,"Collective heating".The result of the integration of regional trade relations and is strengthened,In the short term benefits the growth of economies in the region,But in the long term may face higher barriers to economic globalization.

　　三是新科技革命带来的世界产业格局洗牌，成为经济全球化下行的重要原因。处于经济危机中的当今世界迫切需要新科技革命牵引走出泥潭。数字经济、绿色经济和先进制造业成为世界关注的焦点。

Three is the world of the new revolution of science and technology industry pattern shuffle,Economic globalization will become an important reason.In the economic crisis the world urgently needs a new revolution of science and technology lead out of the mire.The digital economy/Green economy and advanced manufacturing industry become the focus of attention of the world.

　　无论是以云计算、物联网、多网融合技术为代表的数字经济，还是以新能源技术和先进节能减排技术为代表的绿色经济，抑或以电动汽车产业和机器人产业为代表的先进制造业领域，以美欧为代表的发达国家都具有相当的优势。

Whether to cloud computing/Content networking/More nets fusion technology as a representative of the digital economy,Or in new energy technology and advanced energy saving and emission reduction technology as a representative of the green economy,Or to the electric car industry and robot industry as a representative of advanced manufacturing field,In the us and Europe as a representative of the developed countries have a considerable advantage.

　　但是，新兴市场国家的奋起直追，使整个产业格局仍处于变动之中，也使发达国家不敢有丝毫放松。激烈的竞争或许是经济全球化下行的重要原因。一旦各方占据比较优势的格局基本确立，经济全球化态势可能重新上扬。

but,Emerging market countries of rush,The whole industrial structure is still in change,Also make developed countries did not dare to have any relaxation.Intense competition may is the important reason for the downward economic globalization.Once the parties possess basic to establish the pattern of comparative advantage,Economic globalization could rise again.

　　经济全球化：曲折之后或上扬

The economic globalization:After twists and turns or higher

　　2012年，在诸多因素作用下，经济全球化下行的迹象更加明显。但是，作为近代以来世界发展的总体趋势，经济全球化不会就此止步。从更大的范围来看，推动经济全球化的因素仍然不可忽视。

In 2012,,Under the effect of many factors,Signs of economic globalization will more apparent.but,As since modern times the overall trend in the development of the world,Economic globalization will not stop here.From the perspective of a larger scope,Promote economic globalization of the factors still cannot be ignored.

　　首先，包括生产、分配、交换、消费以及金融投资在内的全球性生产关系已稳固建立。正如新华社社长李从军2011年6月在《华尔街日报》发表的文章所言，如今世界不再是平的了，它更像一个迅速收缩的鱼缸。

In the first place,Including production/The distribution/exchange/Consumption and financial investment, global production relations have been built.As President of xinhua news agency LiCongJun in June 2011[The Wall Street journal]Published the article said,Now the world is no longer flat,It is more like a rapid contraction of tank.

　　2011年泰国洪灾对全球供应链的冲击从反面表明世界已融合成为一个“全球生产”体系。发展中国家与发达国家相互依赖的局面并没有发生根本性逆转。伴随着发达国家老龄化社会的普遍到来，发展中国家的劳动力和市场将对发达国家更加重要。

2011 flooding in Thailand on the impact of the global supply chain from the reverse side indicates that the world has become a fusion"The global production"system.The situation of developing countries and developed countries rely on each other and not radically.With the developed countries of the aging society generally,Labor in developing countries and the market will be more important in developed countries.

　　其次，世界主要国家对于经济全球化仍然保持着充分的肯定，并通过20国集团等渠道保持着充分的沟通。发展中国家没有被反全球化的思潮与运动所占据，主动融入全球化的态势仍占据主流。尤其是以金砖国家为代表的新兴市场国家，在推动经济全球化方面建立了广泛的共识和有效的协调机制。

The second,The world's major countries still remain for economic globalization,And through the group of 20 channel such as to maintain the full communication.Developing countries are not reverse the trend of globalization and movement,The initiative into the mainstream of the trend of globalization is still occupied.Especially with gold ingot countries represented by the emerging market countries,In terms of promoting economic globalization establish a wide range of common and effective coordination mechanism.

　　再次，信息技术仍在加深世界的深度融合，有利于打破困扰经济全球化的政治因素。云计算、物联网、多网融合技术、智能手机、电子支付、社交网站等一系列信息技术成果开始在生产和生活中普及，成为推动经济全球化的新动力。

Once again,,Information technology continues to deepen the depth of the world,To break with the political factors in the economic globalization.Cloud computing/Content networking/More nets fusion technology/Intelligent mobile phone/Electronic payment/Social networking site and a series of information technology has been in production and life,Become the new impetus of economic globalization.

　　经济全球化仍在塑造世界。正如李从军社长所言，只有承认我们对彼此的极度依赖，我们才能让“鱼缸效应”服务于人类的福祉，而不是产生负面影响。在经济全球化还是反全球化的岔路口，人类社会将做出明智的抉择。(《半月谈》2012年第24期，记者 王鹏权)

Still in shaping the world of economic globalization.As LiCongJun President said,Only acknowledge us relies heavily on each other,We can make"Aquarium effect"Service to the welfare of mankind,Rather than a negative impact.In the economic globalization is the globalization of the crossroads,Human society will make a wise choice.([半月谈]24 (2012),The reporter WangPengQuan)