潘寅茹

PanYinRu

　　[ 对中国而言，运输距离的缩短无疑将削减资金与时间成本，更为重要的是，中缅新管道将降低中国能源供应的脆弱性 ]

[ For China,Transport distance shortened undoubtedly will cut money and time cost,More important is,Burma in the new pipelines will reduce China's energy supply of vulnerability ]

　　随着中缅之间新油气管道投入使用，中国的能源输运将逐渐走出“马六甲困局”。

With the new oil and gas pipelines in between Burma put into use,China's energy transport will gradually out of"Malacca this".

　　据参与承建的中国企业介绍，连接缅甸印度洋沿岸与中国西南部的一条天然气管道将在今年5月底正式开通。

According to participate in the construction of Chinese enterprises is introduced,Connect the Indian Ocean in southwest China and myanmar a natural gas pipeline in the end of may this year will be officially opened.

　　这条新管道将一改以往中国能源运输对马六甲海峡的过度依赖，不仅有助于中国节省在能源运输方面的成本，同时，确保中国能源运输安全具有重大战略意义。

A new pipelines will change before China's energy transport to excessive dependence on the malacca strait,China not only helps to save on energy transport cost,At the same time,To ensure that China's energy transport security has important strategic significance.

　　开辟能源运输新途径

Open up new ways of energy transport

　　根据中国石油天然气集团公司（CNPC）周一在其官网上公布的消息，这条新天然气管道将最迟在5月30日投入全面运行，距离开工建设不到3年时间。该管道全长2520千米，起于缅甸西部若开邦港口城镇皎漂（Kyaukpyu），经云南瑞丽进入中国境内。

According to the China national petroleum corporation(CNPC)On Monday in its official website announced the news,A new gas pipeline will be in the late May 30 into comprehensive operation,Distance to start construction within three years.The pipe length of 2520 km,Up in Burma western rakhine port town her honey haired drift(Kyaukpyu),The ruili into China.

　　其中，缅甸境内段长793千米，输气能力保持在年均120亿立方米。中国境内段干线长1727千米，输气能力为年均100亿~130亿立方米。

the,Burma by 793 kilometers long,Gas ability to remain in an average 12 billion cubic meters.China main section 1727 km long,Gas capacity is an average 10 billion ~ 13 billion cubic meters.

　　同时，还有一条横跨缅甸境内、进入中国的原油管道预计在明年完工。该原油管道将主要运输源自中东与北非的石油资源。原油管道全长2402千米，其中，缅甸境内段长771千米，年均输油能力为2200万吨；中国境内段干线长1631千米，输油能力为年均2000万吨。

At the same time,There is a across the territory of Burma/In China's crude oil pipeline is expected to the completion of the next year.The crude oil pipeline, the transportation will be mainly from the Middle East and north Africa oil resources.Crude oil pipeline, the total length of 2402 km,the,Burma by 771 kilometers long,With an average annual capacity of 22 million tons of oil;China main section 1631 km long,Oil capacity is 20 million tons per.

　　中缅新管道还将直接惠及来自非洲与阿拉伯地区的油气资源。今后，借助中缅新的油气管道，来自上述地区的能源运输距离将直接缩减1200千米。

Burma in the new pipelines will directly benefit from Africa and the Arabian areas of the oil and gas resources.In the future,With the aid of new oil and gas pipelines in Burma,From the above areas of energy transport distance will directly cut 1200 km.

　　目前，中国80%的原油进口须通过马六甲海峡，因此，马六甲海峡对于中国能源运输而言，战略意义凸显。不过，中缅间即将开通的新油气管道预计将把中国对马六甲海峡的能源运输依赖度降低1/3。

At present,80% of China's oil imports must be through the malacca strait,so,Malacca for China's energy for transportation,Strategic significance to highlight the.but,In between Burma will be opening new oil and gas pipelines is expected to take China to malacca energy transport dependency reduce 1/3.

　　对中国而言，运输距离的缩短无疑将削减资金与时间成本，更为重要的是，中缅新管道将降低中国能源供应的脆弱性。随着美国进一步将战略重心向亚太地区转移，扼守战略要地马六甲海峡的新加坡成为了美国极力拉拢的对象。奥巴马政府“重返亚太”战略的一大支点就是向新加坡部署滨海战斗舰，伺机在特殊时刻直接扼住东亚国家的“能源咽喉”。

For China,Transport distance shortened undoubtedly will cut money and time cost,More important is,Burma in the new pipelines will reduce China's energy supply of vulnerability.With the United States will further strategic center of gravity to transfer in the asia-pacific region,Hold the strategic point of the malacca strait Singapore became the object of trying to.Obama government"Return to the"A major strategic fulcrum is to deploy Singapore binhai combat ships,Bided at a particular moment directly change the east Asian countries"Energy throat".

　　国际危机组织（ICG）东北亚部门主任克莱恩表示，一旦马六甲海峡因为海盗、恐怖主义袭击或者军事冲突被关闭，那么，中缅油气新管线将为中国能源运输提供新的选择。

The international crisis group(ICG)Northeast Asia, director of the department of klein said,Once the malacca strait for pirates/Terrorist attacks or military conflict is closed,so,The main oil and gas pipeline will be new for China's energy transport provide new options.

　　不可抗拒因素成隐忧

Force majeure as worries

　　当前，中国正逐步实现能源结构多元化的战略。在逐渐减轻对煤炭资源需求的趋势下，中国将在今后加大以天然气为主的新能源需求。预计中国对天然气的需求在2012~2015年间年均递增20%。因此，中缅新开通的天然气管道将弥补供应不足的现状。

The current,China is gradually realize the energy structure diversification strategy.In gradually reduce the coal resources under the trend of demand,China will increase in the future to natural gas is given priority to new energy demand.China is expected to demand for natural gas in 2012 ~ 2015 with an average annual increase of 20%.so,Burma in the opening of the new gas pipeline will make up the present situation of the shortage.

　　与此同时，缅甸方面每年也将从这些管道分流不超过200万吨原油和20亿立方米天然气，供该国国内消费。

meanwhile,A year on myanmar will also from these pipeline shunt not more than 2 million tons of crude oil and 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas,For the country's domestic consumption.

　　尽管中缅新管道的开通将有助于缅甸国内的经济发展，巩固中缅之间的友谊，但是中国方面也担心“不可抗拒的因素”会阻碍管道的正常运作。

Although the opening of the new main pipeline will help Burma domestic economic development,Consolidate sino-myanmar friendship,But China also worry about"Irresistible factors"Will hinder the normal operation of the pipeline.

　　近几周，缅甸北方与中国接壤的克钦邦战事呈胶着状态，使传统上密切的中缅关系进一步复杂化。中国政府对在缅的多个大型基础设施与自然资源项目颇为担忧。除了要求缅方确保输气管道、在建工业园区的安全外，颇具争议的蒙育瓦（Monywa）铜矿也是中国政府关注的焦点。去年年底在该铜矿附近，缅甸政府镇压了示威者。

In recent weeks,Burma's northern border war with China KeQinBang the conglutination state,The traditional close relationship in Burma is further complicated.The Chinese government in Burma to multiple large infrastructure and natural resources project was worry.In addition to MianFang requirements to ensure the gas pipeline/The safety of the construction industry park outside,Controversial have brood tile(Monywa)Copper is the focus of attention of the Chinese government.By the end of last year in the near copper mine,The Burmese government crackdown on protesters.

　　在本月20日结束的第一届缅甸“开发合作论坛”上，缅甸总统吴登盛对于未来缅甸能源发展做出了最新表态。会上，吴登盛表示，缅甸将进一步采取措施扩大其能源部门的透明度。缅甸政府将会公开从石油、天然气以及煤矿中获得的收益，从事该相关行业的企业也需要向社会公布其向政府缴纳的所有税收。同时，吴登盛还向与会的援助国与国际组织表示，缅甸政府将尽力确保外国在缅能源领域项目的安全，减少冲突对经济发展的影响。

In the end of this month, and the first Burma"Development cooperation BBS"on,Burma's President for the future WuDengCheng Burma's energy development make the latest statement.meeting,WuDengCheng said,Burma will take further measures to expand its transparency in the energy sector.The Burmese government will be open from oil/Natural gas and coal mine in the profits,Engaged in the related industry enterprises also need to publish to the society to pay the government all the tax.At the same time,WuDengCheng also to the donor country and international organization says,The Burmese government will do our best to ensure that foreign energy field in Burma project safety,To reduce the influence of the conflict of economic development.