2012年1-11月份，中国粮食包括小麦、玉米、大米三大作物的品种进口数量合计是1077.5万吨，同比增长了294.5%。尤其是大米，此次进口陡增。中国为何突然成为大米净进口国？对食品价格和全球经济产生何种影响？难道真的会引发国际粮食危机吗？

1-2012 in November,China's grain including wheat/corn/Three rice crop varieties of import quantity total is 10.775 million tons,Growth of 294.5% year-on-year.Especially rice,The import spurt.Why China suddenly become a net importer of rice?Food prices and the global economy to produce what kind of impact?Don't really can cause the international food crisis?

　　美国农业部(U.S. Department of Agriculture)的数据显示，中国2012年进口精米260万吨，进口量创出历史新高，较2011年的57.5万吨大幅增长。 2012年我国大米激增引起诸多联想，20多年来，中国大米一直自给自足，但从2011年开始，这个 “神话”被打破，受到国际舆论的广泛关注。《华尔街日报》在报道中称，2012年的全球大米市场上出现了一个令人意外的大买家：中国。英国《金融时报》在获知中国海关的最新数据后称，“这个全球最大的大米消费国的进口量，今年将打破纪录。” 并断言中国“已经成为一个大规模的大米净进口国”，此将导致国际市场大米价格上涨，同时推高小麦和玉米等其他粮食价格，进而引发国际粮食市场的恐慌。这些猜想也引来中国官方的发言人，中国商务部发言人回答去年中国的粮食进口量是激增，是否会引发国际的粮食危机，并对中国本身的粮食安全造成影响，回答道：“中国粮食进口增加就说是中国粮食威胁论，或者说因为这样中国粮食不安全，是缺乏依据的。” 商务部发言人提供的数据称，2012年1-11月份，中国粮食包括小麦、玉米、大米三大作物的品种进口数量合计是1077.5万吨，同比增长了294.5%，“粮食进口的快速增长，总体上看是企业经营和市场需求的正常反映”。

The United States department of agriculture(U.S. Department of agriculture)Data showed that,In 2012 China imported 2.6 million tons of rice,Imports a record,A 2011 tons of growth. In 2012, rice surge cause many association,For more than twenty years,The Chinese rice has been self-sufficiency,But since 2011,this "myth"Is broken,By the international public opinion's attention.[The Wall Street journal]The report says,2012 years of global rice appeared on the market a surprisingly large buyers:China.British[Financial times]In the latest data know China customs after said,"The world's largest consumer of rice imports,This year will break the record." And assert that the Chinese"Has become a large-scale rice net importer",This will lead to the international market rice prices,At the same time push up wheat and corn and other food prices,Raising the international grain market panic.The suspect also lead China's official spokesman,Chinese commerce ministry spokesman answer last year China's food imports is surge,Whether it will cause the international food crisis,And the food security of China itself affect,replied:"China's food imports will say Chinese food threat,Or because of this China food safety,Is the lack of the basis." Commerce ministry spokesman said data provided,1-2012 in November,China's grain including wheat/corn/Three rice crop varieties of import quantity total is 10.775 million tons,Growth of 294.5% year-on-year,"The rapid growth of imported food,The overall perspective is the enterprise management and market demand of normal reflect".

　　中国为何突然成为大米净进口国？对食品价格和全球经济产生何种影响？难道真的会引发国际粮食危机吗？大米进口激增的原因何在？

Why China suddenly become a net importer of rice?Food prices and the global economy to produce what kind of impact?Don't really can cause the international food crisis?What is the source of rice imports surged?

　　中国消费需求上升，供给小于需求。

China's consumer demand,Supply less than demand.

　　这种看法以美国为主，当然这种结果也对美国最有利。因为一旦中国的生产满足不了本国的需求，进口当然就是必然选项了。作为全球粮食出口的老大，美国将获得不少机会。美国农场主天天盼着这一天的到来呢。

This view is in the United States,Of course the result also to the United States the most advantageous.Because once China's production can't satisfy the needs of the country,The import of course is the inevitable option for.As a global food exports boss,The United States will get a lot of opportunities.American farmers every day looking forward to the day when it.

　　这种观点认为，中国大规模进口大米是因为中国消费者的需求量在大幅增长。随着中国经济快速发展，生活水平日益提高，中国消费者对粮食需求也更加多样化，尤其对优质大米的需求明显上升。如果中国的粮食生产无法满足本国需求，这可能意味全球大米市场一个重大和长期转变的开始，因为中国的大米需求增长将会使得国际大米价格维持在高位。美国农业部数据认为，2012年中国大米产量为1.43亿吨，消费量达到1.44亿吨，似有100万吨缺口。《华尔街日报》称，一些国际分析师认为，推动中国大规模进口大米的是中国消费者需求的大幅增长。中国的大米无法满足本国人民的需求。如果确实是这样，这可能标志着全球大米市场一个重大和长期转变的开始。这可能引发人们对于大米产量能否满足需求的担心，而这将会使得大米价格维持在高位。 道琼斯通讯社称，一些分析师表示，推动因素是中国消费者需求的大幅增长，这可能引发人们对于大米产量能否满足需求的担心。英国《金融时报》的报道称 中国收成平平，加之国人饮食习惯的改变，对中国传统上的“粮食自给自足”构成很大压力，推高了粮食价格，并促使中国大量进口粮食。

The idea is that,China's massive import rice because China consumer demand in the sharp increase.With China's rapid economic development,The level of life is increasing day by day,Chinese consumers on food demand is also more diversified,Especially for the needs of high quality rice increased obviously.If China's grain production cannot meet its own needs,This may mean global rice market an important and long-term change start,Because China's rice demand growth will make international rice prices remain high.The United States department of agriculture data think,In 2012, the Chinese rice yield is 143 million tons,Consumption reached 144 million tons,Seems to be 1 million tons of gap.[The Wall Street journal]says,Some analysts believe that international,The promotion of China's massive import rice is China's consumer demand growth.China's rice to meet the needs of their people.If it is true,This may be a sign that global rice market an important and long-term change start.This may cause people to rice production can meet the demand of worry,And this will make rice prices remain high. Dow Jones newswires said,Some analysts said,Push factor is China's consumer demand growth,This may cause people to rice production can meet the demand of worry.British[Financial times]reports China's harvest go,Together with Chinese eating habits change,The traditional to China"Self-sufficiency in grain"Constitute a big pressure,Pushing up food prices,And prompted China's import a lot of food.

　　平抑国内价格、赚取利差与增加贮备：海外价格洼地隐现。

Stabilize domestic price/Earn interest margin and increase the reserve:Overseas price depression looms.

　　这个观点以中国国内的观点为主，也对中国有利。在国际市场价格比国内低的时候，进口一些大米补充库存，国有粮商赚些利差，总比让走私者获暴利要好。

This view to China's domestic point of view is given priority to,Also on China's advantage.In the international market of domestic prices low,The import of some rice replenish stock,State-owned food dealer to earn a little interest margin,Than let smugglers profiteering is better.

　　国内与国外大米价差导致大米进口量暴增。近些来中国政府设定的大米价格远高于全球市场同级别大米，而市场价格涨幅更大。这就使那些在越南、巴基斯坦和印度等国收购大米的中国进口商有利可图，他们可以以更高价格在国内市场出售这些进口大米。《华尔街日报》提供了一个例子：2012年12月中旬从越南进口的大米平均价格约为每吨410美元，但此类大米在中国的售价可达每吨635美元左右。联合国粮农组织数据显示，中国湖北籼稻价格在2012年前9个月上涨11%，达到每吨625美元；与此相比，越南出口的最贵大米品种5%碎米率大米的价格仅为每吨451美元，大米加工商增加进口大米主要是为了从国内外价差中获取利润。国内、国外巨大的价格差异，这必然导致有进口配额的企业会大量进口国际市场的粮食，赚取巨额的利差。泰国过去一直是中国最大大米进口来源地，但去年发生了变化，主要是泰国提高了本为大米收购政策，价格高涨，而越南、巴基斯坦和印度等国的大米价格更具竞争力。据彭博社报道，2012年前十个月，中国进口的200万吨大米中有143万吨来自越南。

Domestic and foreign price rice to rice imports jumps.Some closer to the Chinese government set the price of rice is much higher than the global market level with rice,And the market price rise more.This makes those in Vietnam/Pakistan and India and other countries purchase rice Chinese importers profitable,They can at a higher price in the domestic market to sell these imported rice.[The Wall Street journal]Provides an example:In the middle of December 2012 from Vietnam imported rice average price is about $410 per ton,But the price of this kind of rice in China can be up to $635 per ton or so.The United Nations food and agricultural organization data display,China's hubei indica rice prices in the first 9 months of 2012 rose by 11%,At $625 a tonne;Compared with the,Vietnam's most expensive rice varieties 5% broken rice rate of rice price is only $451 per ton,Rice processors imports rice is mainly from home and abroad in order to profit in the price.domestic/Foreign huge price difference,This will inevitably lead to import quotas are the enterprise will be a large number of imports of food in the international market,Earn huge interest spread.Thailand has been in the past is the largest source of imports of rice,But last year has changed,Mainly is to improve the Thailand for rice purchase policy,prices,But Vietnam/Pakistan and India and other countries of the rice price more competitive.According to bloomberg reports,2012 years ago ten months,China imported 2 million tons of 1.43 million tons of rice from Vietnam.

　　有些国外的分析者也认同这个观点。如：凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的Thomas Pugh表示，中国现在基本上有两个分裂的市场，农民向政府出售大米，而消费者则从海外购买大米。这导致政府购买的大米很多都被储藏起来，而不是用于加工和消费。一旦价差收窄，进口量就会回落。

Some foreign analysts also agree with this view.if:Kay for macro(capital economics)Thomas of Pugh said,China now there are basically two division of the market,Farmers to governments sell rice,And consumers can buy rice from overseas.This leads to the government to buy rice many are stored,But not in the processing and consumption.Once the narrow price,Imports will be back.

　　中国政府近年提高农民收入的政策在一定程度上推动国内大米价格上涨，粮食进口对于平抑物价水平有贡献。此外，因为越南大米价格低，有一些大米通过走私渠道进入中国。有报道称益海嘉里负责人表示，中国南部不少大米走私活动，将越南米贩入国内，获利不少。也有报道称， 中粮内部人士表示，去年中粮一年进口大米至少70万吨，大部分是越南米和巴基斯坦米，而在2011年，进口量还不足8万吨，几乎涨了8倍。主要是因为价格低，公司做贸易业务，进口后卖给其他企业。

The Chinese government in recent years, increasing farmers' income policy to a certain extent promote domestic rice prices,Grain imports contribute to stabilize prices level.In addition,Because Vietnam rice prices low,There is some rice smuggled into China channel.Reports say the yihai kerry person in charge said,A lot of rice in south China smuggling activities,Vietnamese rice will sell into the domestic,Profit a lot.Reports have also, Cofco insiders said,Last year a year rice grain imports at least 700000 tons,Most are Vietnamese rice and Pakistan meters,In 2011,Imports are less than 80000 tons,Rose almost eight times.Mainly because of low price,The company to do business,After the import sold to other enterprises.

　　商务部发言人也进一步认可了这个原因。他分析表示，粮食进口比较快的原因主要有三个：第一，国内外市场的价差增大，企业进口意愿增强。第二，企业增长饲料用粮的库存。特别是玉米，国内玉米供求偏紧，库存有限，企业增加国际市场上采购玉米用于补充库存。第三，基数原因。2011年同期，中国小麦、玉米和大米进口的基数相对非常低，只有103万吨、118万吨和51万吨。

Commerce ministry spokesman also further endorsed this reason.He said analysis,Imported food faster the reason mainly has three:The first,The domestic and international market price increase,Enterprise import will increase.The second,Enterprise growth feed USES inventory.Especially corn,The domestic supply and demand of corn partial tight,Stock co., LTD.,,Enterprises to increase the international market purchasing corn used to replenish stock.The third,Base reason.The same period in 2011,China's wheat/Corn and rice import base relative is very low,Only 1.03 million tons/1.18 million tons and 510000 tons.

　　问题是从未来发展来看，中国的大米价格会越来越高，单纯从国际进口来平抑国内粮食市场会让中国的农民放弃粮食生产。日本、韩国本国的大米价格都国际市场的数十倍。如果按照这套理论，他们早应该走私与进口了。如果保护中国的农民，让他们种粮不吃亏，是一个大问题。

See from the future development,The price of rice in China will be more and more high,Only from the international import to stabilize the domestic grain market will make Chinese farmers give up grain production.Japan/South Korea domestic rice prices are international market dozens of times.If according to this theory,They should have smuggling and imported.If the protection of China's farmers,Let them grain does not suffer,Is a big problem.

　　中国的大米储备是多少？进口配额又是多少？

How much is the reserve of rice in China?How much is the import quotas?

　　这个数据一个很糊糊。中国粮食储备不断增加，加上国内外大米差价收窄，2013年中国大米进口量将有所下降。联合国粮农组织预计，截至2012年9月底，中国大米库存量达到9370万吨，创历史最高纪录。 根据加入世贸组织的承诺，中国对小麦、玉米和大米是采取关税配额管理。去年1-11月份，小麦、玉米和大米总体进口关税配额完成了不到50%。关税配额量是根据安全性和国际市场影响的因素来确定的，整体进口规模是在合理范围内。目前有报道称中国的大米进口配额是700万吨。

This data is a very HuHu.China's grain reserves increase,Add rice price differentials narrow at home and abroad,In 2013, the Chinese rice imports will be declined.The United Nations food and agriculture organization is expected,By the end of 2012 the end of September,The Chinese rice stocks reached 93.7 million tons,The all-time record high. According to the commitment of the accession to the world trade organization,China's wheat/Corn and rice is to take tariff quota management.Last year in November 1 -,wheat/Corn and rice import tariff quotas of overall completed less than 50%.Tariff quota amount is according to the safety and international market factors to determine,The whole import scale is in the reasonable scope.There are reports that China's rice import quota is 7 million tons.

　　中国大米进口对全球有何影响？

The Chinese rice imports on global what effect?

　　全球大米贸易有点特殊，大多数大米消费国也是大规模的产米国，大米的全球贸易量仅占总产量的很小一部分。联合国粮农组织公布，2012年大米贸易量仅为3730万吨，占全球供应量的7.7%。

Global rice trade is a bit special,Most of the rice is consumer mass production m countries,Rice global trade accounts for only a tiny part of the total.The United Nations food and agriculture organization released,2012 rice trade only for 37.3 million tons,Accounted for 7.7% of global supply.

　　联合国粮农组织公布，2012年大米贸易量仅为3,730万吨，占全球供应量的7.7%。中国一年的大米消费量约为1.4亿吨，中国大米进口的任何风吹草动都会产生巨大影响。因此中国大规模进口大米，对全球大米贸易产生巨大影响。2008年，大米价格飙升带动其他主要粮食价格上涨，从而爆发了全球食品危机。联合国粮农组织的学者认为，如果这种势头持续下去，人们会担心全球其他地方的产量能否满足中国的大米需求。

The United Nations food and agriculture organization released,2012 rice trade only three,7.3 million tons,Accounted for 7.7% of global supply.China a year of rice consumption is about 140 million tons,The Chinese rice import any risks will have a huge impact.So China's massive import rice,On the global rice trade has great influence.In 2008,,Rice prices drive the other major food prices,Thus an outbreak of the global food crisis.The United Nations food and agriculture organization of the scholars think,If this trend continues,People worry that other parts of the world production can meet the demand of rice in China.

　　大量进口对国内的又有何影响？粮食过分依赖进口会带来什么影响呢？是否会推高国内的通胀指数？粮食进口是否会损害中国国内粮农的利益？

A large number of domestic and imported to have any influence?Food imports would depend on what impact?Whether it will push up the domestic inflation index?Food imports will damage the interests of China's domestic food and agriculture?

　　虽然几百万吨的进口量不足以影响中国粮食安全，但是对于许多国内企业而言会有一定的负面影响。长期来看，大米进口量的增加将对我国大米安全产生负面作用，对相关行业产生不利的影响。来自越南、巴基斯坦等国低价米进入，对我国稻米市场的冲击已经显现。目前国内中档大米价格一般在2.5-4元/斤，高端4元/斤以上，而低端在2元/斤左右，许多进口米的到岸价只有1.4元/斤，低价米是受进口米影响的重灾区。 大量进口普通大米，就会造成与民争利。大量低端大米进口的增加，是造成我国稻米市场目前稻强米弱及大米加工企业亏损的原因之一。

Although millions of tons of imports is not enough to affect China's food security,But for many domestic companies will have a negative impact.In the long term,Rice imports will increase to our rice safety produce negative effects,The relevant industry produce adverse effect.From Vietnam/Pakistan and other countries at a low price in meters,The impact of rice in China market has appeared.At present domestic intermediate rice prices generally in 2.5-4 yuan/jins,High-end 4 yuan/pounds over,And low in 2 yuan/jins or so,Many imported rice cif price is only 1.4 yuan/catty,Low m is affected by the influence of imported meters worst-hit areas. Import a lot of ordinary rice,It will cause YuMinZhengLi.A large number of low rice imports increase,Is a rice in China market is strong and weak rice rice rice processing enterprise one of the reasons for the loss.

　　粮食过分进口长期来看对粮农明显不利。过去种大豆的农民现在很少种大豆了。

Too much food import in the long term for food and agriculture obvious disadvantage.The kind of soybean farmers are seldom kind of soybeans.

　　为何一改粮食进口格局？中国粮食安全政策调整了吗？粮食进口突破红线没有？

Why change the grain import pattern?China's food safety policy adjustment?The grain import breakthrough red line no?

　　我国坚持粮食自给率必须保持在95%以上的政策“红线”已多年，但近期的进口激增是否暗示这种坚持或许已开始松动？因为全球不少粮食贸易巨头都力争在中国的粮食进口中占据有利位置，在他们看来，中国粮食进口激增将成为“改变游戏之举。”

China has adhered to its self-sufficiency rate of grain must be kept in more than 95% of the policy"Red line"Has for many years,But the recent surge in imports of whether to suggest that this may have started to loose?Because of the many food trade giant have strived to in China's imports of grain pole position,In their eyes,Chinese food imports surged will become"Change the game for."

　　在粮食进口上，中国一直采取较为保守的政策，甚至在2011年以前，中国仅允许进口少量的优质大米和小麦，而玉米进口量近乎为零。为守住自给红线，在2008年10月的中共十七届三中全会中还明确提出了“坚决守住１８亿亩耕地红线”。 如果剔除2012年前11个月进口的5249万吨大豆，具体到谷物和谷粉类别，中国粮食进口量为1340万吨，这一数据虽然仅占全年粮食总产量的2%左右，但是却为2011年同期的三倍。 

On grain imports,China has been taken more conservative policy,Even in 2011 years ago,China is only allowed to import a small amount of high quality rice and wheat,And corn imports almost to zero.To keep self red line,In October 2008 the third plenary session of the 17th CPC also clearly put forward"Firmly hold 1.8 billion hectares of arable land red line". If eliminate 2012 years ago 11 months imported 52.49 million tons of soybeans,Specific to the valley grain powder category,Chinese food imports for 13.4 million tons,The data although only account for about 2% of the total grain output,But for the same period in 2011, three times. 

　　全国政协委员、中央农村工作领导小组办公室主任陈锡文早在2011年3月份接受媒体采访时就表示，如果把大豆纳入粮食范畴，中国的粮食进口量已经达到11%，自给率勉强能够达到90%。

The national political consultative conference (CPPCC)/The central rural work leading group office director Chen as early as in 2011 March to the media interview said,If the soybeans into the food category,China's food imports has reached 11%,Of the force can reach 90%.

　　中国的粮食自给率是否受到威胁？粮食自给率须保持在95%以上的政策“红线”是否已突破？1340万吨谷物进口量仅相当于全球2.8 亿吨谷物贸易量的4.7%，相当于日本谷物进口量的60%，若与中国每年5.2 亿吨谷物消费量相比较，它只相当于2.6%。 若以此比例计算，中国尚未打破进口“红线”。

China is threatened its self-sufficiency rate of grain?Must maintain its self-sufficiency rate of grain in more than 95% of the policy"Red line"Is breakthrough?13.4 million tons of grain imports only equivalent to the global 2.8 4.7% of the one hundred million tons of grain trade,Japan is equivalent to 60% of the grain imports,If every year in China with 5.2 One hundred million tons of grain consumption compared,It is only equivalent to 2.6%. If this ratio calculation,China has yet to break the import"Red line".

　　未来大米供求缺口还要进一步增大？

The future of rice supply and demand gap will further increase?

　　按照目前口径和国家统计局正式公布的数据，以1998～2010年期间粮食年消费消耗增长速度计算，到2020年中国的粮食年消费消耗总量极可能突破6.5亿吨。而对照中国国家粮食中长期规划，2020年中国粮食的生产能力只有5.5亿吨，这就意味着到时候中国的粮食产需缺口可能要达到1亿吨。

According to the current size and the national bureau of statistics data released by the official,During 1998 to 2010 in food consumption consumption growth rate calculation,In 2020, China's annual grain consumption consumption is likely to exceed 650 million tons.China's state food and contrast medium and long term planning,In 2020 China's grain production capacity is 550 million tons,This means that when the time comes China's food ChanXu gap is likely to reach 100 million tons.

　　新近富起来的中国人要吃更多蛋白质、肉类，这要消费更多粮食。国人饮食习惯的改变，是今年中国玉米和大豆进口增加的一个关键原因。 据美国农业部估计，尽管家庭收入不断增长，今年中国大米的绝对需求与10年前基本相当。与此同时，玉米和大豆等用于喂养牲口的主要饲料消耗量激增。 

The newly rich Chinese want to eat more protein/meat,This will consume more food.Chinese eating habits change,Is this year China's corn and soybean imports a key reason. The usda estimates,Although the family income increase,This year the Chinese rice absolute demand and basic quite ten years ago.meanwhile,Corn and soy, used for feeding cattle main feed consumption surge. 

　　粮食进口的另外一笔帐

Food imports of another account

　　研究部门估计，以2010年粮棉油进口量来算，中国进口农产品数量相当于使用了国外大概7亿多亩耕地。

The department estimated,In 2010, imports to calculate place,China's imports of agricultural products is equivalent to the amount used abroad about more than 700 million hectares of arable land.