去年9月末，在世界各地普遍经济低迷之际，参加世贸组织（WTO）日内瓦会议的经济学家们调低了预测。2012年，全球贸易扩张幅度将不会达到先前预测的3.7%，而是只会扩张2.5%。2013年的增幅预测也被调低，由5.6%降至4.5%。

At the end of September last year,In the world the general economic downturn,To participate in the world traDE organization (wto)(WTO)Geneva conference economists predict the down.In 2012,,Global traDE expansion amplituDE will not live up to earlier forecast of 3.7%,But only 2.5% expansion.2013 growth forecast is also lower,Decreased from 5.6% to 4.5%.

　　这是全球经济的持续麻烦——从发展中国家的低增长，到部分新兴国家的增长放缓——削弱全球贸易复苏力度的最新迹象。在此前2008/09年的金融危机中，全球贸易大幅下滑。

This is the global economy continues to trouble - from low growth in DEveloping countries,The part of a slowdown in emerging countries, weaken the global traDE in the latest sign of recovery efforts.After the 2008/09 financial crisis,A sharp slowdown in global traDE.

　　在世贸组织（WTO）总干事帕斯卡尔·拉米（Pascal Lamy）看来，这一最新迹象表明，必须采取额外的政策手段，才能使全球贸易“发动机”加速运转。“需要采取更多行动，”拉米表示，“我们需要各方再度承诺重振多边贸易体系，以重获亟需的经济确定性。”

In the world traDE organization (wto)(WTO)Director-general PASCAL lamy(Pascal Lamy)It seems,The latest sign that,Must take additional policy means,To make global traDE"engine"Revving up."Need to take more action,"Lam said,"We need the parties promise again revive the multilateral traDE system,To regain are badly in need of economic uncertainty."

　　拉米在世贸组织的任期将于今年8月底结束，可能接替他的有9位候选人——其中，亚洲和拉丁美洲各3人，非洲2人，新西兰1人。

The world traDE organization (wto) talks in the term of the will in the end of August this year end,May take his nine candidates - among them,Asia and Latin America all three,2 Africa,New Zealand 1 person.

　　但是，不论未来谁来接替拉米，新的WTO掌舵人都将面临同样的艰巨挑战——从早已失去势头的10年多哈回合谈判的灰烬再生，推动各方为达成一项多边贸易协议而共同努力。

but,No matter who will replace the future talks,The new WTO steersman will face the same difficult challenges -- from had run out of steam ten years the doha round the ashes of regeneration,Promote the parties to reach a multilateral traDE agreement and work together.

　　美国财政部前官员、现在是彼得森国际经济研究所（PIIE）高级研究员的加里 赫夫鲍尔（Gary Hufbauer）表示：“有个很大的问题是，中国、美国、欧盟（EU）、巴西和印度等大国是否真的愿意付出努力，让多哈回合谈判结出它所能结出的果实。”赫夫鲍尔补充道：“美国明显在这方面一直保持着沉默，但其他国家也是如此。”

The us Treasury officials before/Now is the peterson institute for international economics(PIIE)Senior researcher Gary HeFu Bauer(Gary Hufbauer)said:"There is a big problem is,China/The United States/The European Union(EU)/Brazil and India, as well as power is not really willing to put in the effort,Let the doha round bear it can bear fruit."HeFu Bauer adDEd:"Obviously the United States in this respect has always kept silence,But other countries is also so."

　　长期以来，外界对重启多哈回合谈判的预期一直不高——至少不会在今年12月各国贸易部长汇聚印尼巴厘岛，举行下一轮WTO峰会之前重启。更可能出现的局面是，全球贸易议程的某些要素，比如达成《国际服务业协定》（International Services Agreement），有可能实现“单兵突破”。

For a long time,The outsiDE world to restart the doha round expected has not been high - at least not in December traDE ministers gathering Indonesia Bali,The next round of WTO held before the summit to restart.The situation is more likely,Some of the elements of global traDE agenda,Such as a[International service agreement](International Services agreement),possible"Individual breakthrough".

　　旨在推动贸易自由化的华盛顿游说团体——美国对外贸易委员会（NFTC）主席比尔 赖因施（Bill Reinsch）表示：“我们认为，今年各方将进行频繁的磋商，但未必能敲定许多方案。”

Aims to promote traDE liberalization Washington lobbying group, the American foreign traDE commission(NFTC)Chairman bill Rice was because(Bill Reinsch)said:"We think,The parties this year will have frequent consultation,But not necessarily can finalize many schemes."

　　为了在近乎流产的多边贸易议程中闯出一条新路，许多大国都在以地区合作方式填补空白，并在放宽市场准入上取得了一定的进展。

In orDEr to almost abortion multilateral traDE agenda rushes out a new road,Many powers in regional cooperation way to fill in the blanks,And in ease market access on maDE progress.

　　比如，正在磋商构建“跨太平洋（601099）战略经济伙伴关系协定”（简称TPP）的国家——包括澳大利亚、文莱、智利、马来西亚、新西兰、秘鲁、新加坡、越南和美国——指出它们在去年12月新西兰谈判之后取得的进展。那次谈判第一次把加拿大和墨西哥吸收进来。第16轮磋商将于3月在新加坡举行，乐观人士希望今年底前能签署一份协议，不过这可能是一厢情愿。

Such as,Were negotiating construction"Across the ocean(601099)Strategic economic partnership agreement"(Referred to as TPP)Countries, including Australia/brunei/Chile/Malaysia/New Zealand/Peru/Singapore/Vietnam and the United States - pointed them out in December last year in New Zealand negotiations of the progress.The negotiations for the first time in Canada and Mexico absorption.The 16th round of negotiations will be held on March in Singapore,Optimists hope end can sign an agreement,But this may be wishful thinking.

　　可以说，更具雄心的项目是达成一项欧美贸易协议，把两大经济体通过一种前所未有的方式联系起来，为保护知识产权（IPR）等方面的措施制定出标准。由欧盟贸易专员卡洛 德古赫特（Karel de Gucht）和美国贸易代表罗恩 柯克（Ron Kirk）领导的一个工作组，预计在本月宣布启动正式谈判。不过，在草拟一份协定方面仍存在多项艰巨的挑战，协定不会在短期内达成，许多人认为此事今年内根本没有指望。

Can say,More ambitious project is reach an Europe and the United States traDE agreement,The two big economies through an unpreceDEnted way connected,For the protection of intellectual property rights(IPR)The measures such as work out the standard.The European Union traDE commissioner carol Dracula hutt(Karel DE Gucht)And the United States traDE representative RON kirk(Ron Kirk)Led a working group,Is expected to start formal negotiations announced this month.but,Draw up a protocol in there still exist many difficult challenges,agreement will not achieve in the short term,Many people believe that the matter within this year didn't expect.

　　与此同时，尽管存在一些地缘政治紧张，但中日韩三国正为签订三边贸易协定做准备工作。赫夫鲍尔表示：“中日韩达成贸易协定，可能是2013至2014年间的一件大事。此事目前看来似乎遥不可及，但如果这三个国家决心向前推进，就很可能带来重大的突破。”

meanwhile,Although there are some geopolitical tension,But China, South Korea and Japan are a trilateral traDE agreement make preparations.HeFu Bauer said:"Japan and South Korea in a traDE agreement,May be between 2013 and 2014 a great thing.It now seems remote may not and,But if these three countries DEciDEd to push ahead,It is very possible to bring the significant breakthrough."

　　在这些旨在推进地区贸易融合的努力取得进展之际，世贸组织、全球贸易官员和专家，以及商业团体都在密切注视相关国家是否将弱化一些旨在保护国内产业的措施。近年来此类措施大行其道，导致有关保护主义的指控。此类政策破坏了贸易关系，导致贸易紧张升温，包括在世贸组织的争端解决机制内部。

In these aims to promote regional traDE integration of efforts to make progress,The world traDE organization (wto)/Global traDE officials and experts,And business groups are keeping a close eye on the relevant countries will weaken some DEsigned to protect domestic industry measures.In recent years popular such measures,Cause the protectionism charges.Such policies DEstroyed traDE relations,Lead to traDE tensions,IncluDEd in the wto's dispute settlement mechanism insiDE.

　　拉米表示：“现在，世界最不愿看到的事情就是保护主义加剧的威胁。”

Lam said:"now,The world's most is not willing to see things is the threat of increased protectionism."