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中美贸易顺差规模被高估--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2013-01-30

  据媒体报道,中美贸易顺差一直是人民币升值压力的主要来源,不过中国社会科学院最新报告指出,中国贸易结构中加工贸易比重较大,国外产生的附加值比例较高,使传统方法计算的贸易顺逆差绝对额偏大,中美贸易顺差规模尤其被高估。

According to media reports,China's trade surplus with the appreciation of the renminbi has been the main source of pressure,But the new report says the Chinese academy of social sciences,China's trade structure of a larger share of the processing trade,The added value of foreign produce higher percentage,The traditional method to calculate the sheer specified number of trade deficit too big,Sino-us trade surplus scale especially overvalued.

  报告对经合组织和世贸组织发布的附加值贸易统计数据分析称,若以附加值计,中国对美国贸易顺差将会较传统方法计算明显减少,2009年减少达400亿美元(26%),因中国出口商品中来自美国附加值进口占了较大比重。

Report to the oecd and the world trade organization (wto) issued the added value of trade statistics data analysis says,If added value meter,China's trade surplus with the United States will be a traditional method to calculate significantly reduced,In 2009 by up to $40 billion(26%),For Chinese export commodities from the United States imported added value of larger proportion.

  不过,随着中国近年在全球生产链中的地位有所提升,出口中的国外附加值比例正在减少,附加值方法可能会使中美顺差表现出更快速度的提升。这与中国加工贸易比例一直下降的趋势一致。

but,In recent years, as China in the global production chain in the position to improve,The foreign export value proportion is reduced,Added value method may make the surplus show faster speed increase.The proportion of China's processing trade has been consistent downward trend.

  “中美附加值贸易顺差比传统方法减少,但增速快于传统方法,附加值方法将在动态上可能对中美贸易顺差有潜在的压力。”报告称。

"Sino-us trade surplus value than the traditional way to reduce,But faster than traditional methods,Added value in the dynamic method on sino-us trade surplus may have potential pressure."The report says.

  报告指出,传统的总贸易流量方法将产品的所有商业价值都计入最终出口该产品的国家,没有揭示贸易给参与其中的各国在增加值(工资、利润等)和就业等方面带来的收益,而附加值贸易统计则纠正了这一偏误。它将货物和服务在经过国界的每一个生产阶段获得的增加值计入相应的来源国家和行业,一国出口中的国内附加值部分才是该国出口获得的真正收益。

The report says,The traditional total trade flow method will be the product of all commercial value are included in the final export the product's country,Did not reveal trade to participate in one of the countries in the added value(wage/Profit, etc)And the benefits of employment, etc,And value-added trade statistics is corrected the errors.It will goods and services after national borders each production stage have added value included in the corresponding source country and industry,One country export of domestic value-added part is the country's export get the real income.

  中美贸易顺差是美国提出人民币被低估的主要理由之一,但中国政府则认为美对华贸易中存在逆差的原因并不在于人民币汇率,而在于中美贸易投资和贸易结构。

China's trade surplus with the United States is put forward the yuan is undervalued one of the main reasons,But the Chinese government argues that China beauty exist in the cause of the trade deficit is not the RMB exchange rate,But in sino-us trade and investment and trade structure.

  截至2012年末,人民币兑美元较上年末升值约1%,较2010年6月重启汇改以来累计升值约9.6%。国际清算银行的人民币实际有效汇率指数显示,2012年全年人民币实际有效汇率涨幅达2.2%。

By the end of 2012,RMB appreciation against the dollar ShangNianMo is about 1%,A June 2010 to restart by about 9.6% since the accumulative appreciation.The bank for international settlements RMB real effective exchange rate index display,In the whole year of 2012 RMB real effective exchange rate increased by 2.2%.

  该报告还指出,基于附加值的测算显示,中国出口商实际承担的有效关税明显高于总体关税水平。从OECD数据看,2009年中国制造业总出口负担关税为4%左右,但换算成出口的国内附加值部分所负担的关税时猛然升高到17%。

The report also pointed out,Based on the calculation of added value display,Chinese exporters for actual effective tariff is obviously higher than that of the general tariff level.From the OECD data to see,In 2009, China manufacturing total export tariff burden is about 4%,But conversion into export domestic value-added part of the burden of the tariff suddenly rise to 17%.

  “中间投入品的进口比例高是中国出口有效关税较高的主要原因。同时全球生产链的拉长延伸使中间进口品多次穿越国境,多次积累了每次小额的关税。”报告称。“各国关税水平的削减,即使是微幅的降低都将有效提升中国出口商的竞争力。”

"Intermediate input products imported high proportion is China's export the main reason for the high effective tariff.At the same time, the global production chain of spin extension to cross the border between imports many times,Many have accumulated each small tariff."The report says."Countries tariff cuts,Even slightly lower will improve the competitiveness of Chinese exporters."

  中国2012年全年出口同比增长7.9%,进口同比增长4.3%,贸易顺差同比扩大48.1%达到2311亿美元。海关官员并预计,综合今年全年情况看,外贸有望进一步回暖,进出口增速可能会略好于2012年。

China's 2012 annual export year-on-year growth of 7.9%,Imports increased 4.3% year-on-year,Expanding trade surplus year-on-year 48.1% to $231.1 billion.The customs officials and expected,Comprehensive year case,Foreign trade is expected to thaw,Import and export growth may be slightly better than 2012 years.



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