2012年中国的外贸总额或可超越美国，成为全球最大贸易国，是春节期间国际媒体的一个热门话题。虽然，超了还是没超尚存疑问。根据美国商务部的统计，美国2012年的商品贸易总额达到38628.59亿美元；而中国海关提供的数据，中国2012年的贸易总额则为38667亿美元，已略微超越美国。但近日商务部有关人士对此有个澄清，称这是因统计口径不同造成的，若都按世界贸易组织的统计口径，我国2012年货物贸易额应比美国少156.4亿美元。

In 2012, China's total foreign trade or surpassed the United States,As the world's largest trading nation,During the Spring Festival is the international media and a hot topic.although,Super, and I still haven't super is still in question.According to the statistics of the us department of commerce,The United States in 2012 commodity trade amounted to 3.862859 trillion dollars;China customs to provide the data,China's total trade in 2012 was $3.8667 trillion,Has slightly beyond the United States.But recently the ministry of commerce officials there is a clarification,Say it is because of difference of statistical caliber,If in the world trade organization statistical caliber,Our country in 2012 the goods trade than GuoShao should be $15.64 billion.

　　其实，不管商务部官员的表态是低调还是谨慎，也不管2012年中国的外贸总额能否超美，中国的外贸总额将成为世界第一都没什么疑问，即便不在去年，也就是今明年的事儿。2009年，中国的货物出口和进口双双超越德国，成为当年世界第一大出口国和第二大进口国，自那以来，中国奔向外贸总额世界第一大国的步伐就没停歇。去年我国贸易增速并不理想，但也达到6.2%，而美国是3.5%，世贸组织预计的全球贸易量只有2.5%的增长。这意味着，2012年中国外贸的国际市场份额在2011年10.4%的基础上又有所增加。可喜的还有，2012年我国外贸出口价格总体上涨了2%，而同期进口价格总体下跌了0.7%，贸易价格条件指数为102.7。这表明我们出口同样数量的商品，可以多换回2.7%的进口商品，贸易条件有所改善。

In fact,Regardless of the ministry of commerce official statement is low-key still cautious,No matter in 2012, China's total foreign trade can super beauty,China's foreign trade volume will become the world's first no doubt,Even if not in last year,Is this about next year.In 2009,,China's exports and imports both surpass Germany,Become the world's first big exporter and second largest importer,Since then,China's foreign trade volume ran to the world the first big strides are not idle.Last year our country trade growth is not ideal,But also reached 6.2%,And the United States is 3.5%,The world trade organization estimates that only 2.5% of the global trade growth.This means that,In 2012, the Chinese foreign trade international market share is 10.4% in 2011 and on the basis of increased.Delightful and,In 2012, foreign trade export prices rose by 2% overall,Over the same period, the general import prices fell 0.7%,Trade price condition index is 102.7.This suggests that we export the same amount of goods,Can change to return to 2.7% of the import goods,Trade conditions improve.

　　去年全球总体需求不振，当下“货币战”又有卷土重来之势，世界各国既害怕失去出口的市场，又担心自己的市场被他国所占，更希望在一个变小的馅饼里，能分得更大的份额，在这样的背景下，我们的数据便愈加难能可贵——基数不断扩大，增速仍明显高于他国，质量也在提高，验证了中国在国际市场极具竞争力以及国内市场的阔大，也是一国经济规模和实力的体现。

Last year's global overall demand,the"Currency war"And the potential back,All countries in the world is afraid to lose the export market,And worries about the market is for other countries,More hope in a smaller the pie,Can share a bigger share,In such a background,Our data and more commendable - growing base,Growth is obviously higher than other countries,Quality is high,Verify the China in the international market competitive and domestic market KuoDa,One is the embodiment of the economic scale and strength.

　　当然，肯定了成绩，不等于可以妄自尊大。实实在在地说，即便中国外贸进出口总额成了世界第一，离“贸易强国”也还有相当差距。首先，中国的外贸进出口总值，实际上仅仅是货物贸易的数据，而更体现经济发达水平的服务贸易仍是我们的短板；其次，虽然货物贸易已做得足够大，但由于结构和价值链条上存在明显软肋，实际上挣得却不够多，胖而不壮；第三，中国几乎在所有产品线同发展阶段完全不同的国家在国际市场上都有一拼，但也带来全方位的经济摩擦，虽然中国因此而得到的好处与所受到的责难并不成比例，但哑巴亏只能自己吞下，而越来越多的贸易纠纷势必成为中国贸易进一步做大的阻力。

Of course,Affirmed the achievement,Doesn't mean you can be puffed up with pride.Said, truly, truly,Even if China's foreign trade volume became the world first,from"Trade power"There are still quite a gap.First of all,China's foreign trade import and export (GDP),In fact is only goods trade data,And more reflect economic developed level of service trade is still our short board;secondly,Although trade in goods have done more than enough,But due to the structure and value chain on obvious soft rib,Actually earn is not enough,Fat but not strong;The third,China in almost all product lines and stage of development completely different countries in the international market have a spell,But it has also brought a full range of economic friction,Although China so the advantages of and under fire is not in proportion,But YaBaKui but only themselves to swallow,And more and more trade disputes will become China's trade further resistance.

　　大家都知道，加工贸易在中国外贸中的地位举足轻重，而这种贸易的特点就是，贸易额可以很大，利益却是全球分享，占据价值链制高点者得大头，而加工者只能获得少量的加工费。专家举例说得更明白:“一个生产电子产品的在华外资公司从韩国进口100美元/台的零部件，再以120美元/台的价格出口，实际上中国经济从每台产品上只赚到了20美元的加工费；但它却在中国的进出口总值上体现为220美元。”简言之，贸易额是我们的，钱被人家挣走了。

Everyone knows that,Processing trade in China's foreign trade plays an important role in the position,And this is the characteristics of the trade,Trade can be great,Interest is the global share,Occupy the leading value chain person,And the processor can only get a small amount of processing charges.Experts for example more understand:"A production of electronic products in China, foreign companies from South Korea imported $100 / table parts,Then the price of $120 / sets export,In fact China's economy from every piece of our product only twenty dollars earned the processing;But it is in China's import and export value embodies in $220."In short,Trade is our,Money is the somebody else make away.

　　这里面的深层次问题在于，目前我国仍处于国际产业分工体系的中低端，比较优势仍主要集中在劳动密集型产品和高新技术产品的劳动密集型环节，而且随着时间的推移，我国外贸受环境、资源、劳动力约束越来越大。从外贸依存度看，我国外贸依存度为47%，远高于美国的30%左右，内需的支撑力度明显薄弱。而一个国家，若自主创新能力弱，缺少品牌，其总体出口产品结构严重依赖外资和国外技术，靠拼血汗挣低附加值，老百姓收入低而无法拉动内需，其贸易额再大，也跨不进发达国家门槛。

Here is the deep problems,At present our country is still in the international industrial division of labor system ZhongDiDuan,Comparative advantage is still mainly concentrated in the labor-intensive products and hi-tech products labor-intensive links,But as time goes on,Our country foreign trade by the environment/resources/Labor constraint is more and more big.The ratio of dependence on foreign trade to see,Dependence on foreign trade is 47%,The United States is far higher than 30%,Support the weak domestic demand significantly.And a country,If the independent innovation ability weak,Lack of brand,Its overall structure of export products rely heavily on foreign investment and foreign technology,By spell sweat earn low added value,Low income people to stimulating domestic demand,The volume of trade again big,Also not into developed countries across the threshold.

　　当此中国外贸额或将超越美国之际，低成本扩张的路已越走越窄，转型升级的要求也愈加紧迫。实现结构优化，向产品价值链的高端要效益，提升外贸服务业水平，扩大内需与稳定外贸并举，这是世界上各主要国家外贸从量的扩张到质的转换的必由之路，中国也不能例外。

When this China will overtake America as its or,Low cost expansion way has more walk more narrow,Requirements of the transformation and upgrade of even more urgent.Realization structure optimization,The value chain to products in the high-end will benefit,Improve the foreign trade service level,To expand domestic demand and stability and foreign trade,This is the main states of the world trade of expansion in quantity into the qualitative transformation,China is no exception.