美国农业部首席经济学家约瑟夫·格劳伯21日发表讲话说，尽管旱情在美国很多地区依然存在，美国2013年农业出口额预计将再创新高。

The United States department of agriculture's chief economist, Joseph case LaoBo 21 speeches said,Despite the drought in the United States, there are still many areas,The United States in 2013 agricultural exports are expected to hit a record high.

　　格劳伯在当天开幕的美国农业前景论坛上说，在截至今年9月底的2013财年，美国农业出口额预计将达1420亿美元，比去年11月份的预测低30亿美元，但仍比2012财年高62亿美元，将再创历史新高。与此同时，农业进口额将达1125亿美元，也将创历史最高纪录，农业顺差将达295亿美元。

In the case LaoBo the American agriculture prospect BBS said,In the year to the end of September 2013),American agricultural exports is expected to total $142 billion,November forecast than last year low of $3 billion,But still than in fiscal year 2012 high of $6.2 billion,Will hit a record high.meanwhile,Agricultural imports will reach to 112.5 billion usd,Will the all-time record high,Agricultural surplus will reach to 29.5 billion usd.

　　格劳伯还说，2013财年中国预计将连续第二年超过加拿大成为美国第一大农业出口市场，不过美国向中国出口的农产品价值将比去年的历史最高水平缩减14亿美元，降至220亿美元。自2005年以来，中国市场几乎以年均20%的速度增长，其中大豆和棉花占出口额的75%。

Case LaoBo also said,In fiscal year 2013 China is expected to be the second year in a row over Canada became the first big agricultural export market,But the United States to China's export agricultural products value will be than last year's record $1.4 billion reduction,Drop to $22 billion.Since 2005,The Chinese market is almost at an annual rate of 20% growth,The soybeans and cotton accounted for 75% of exports.

　　格劳伯指出，干旱等天气情况将是影响美国农业产出和出口的最主要不确定因素。去年美国本土48个州有三分之二的区域遭遇了中度以上干旱灾害，是56年来美国遭遇的最严重旱灾。在今年春季播种期，美国旱情依然持续，已有14个州的597个县受干旱和高温影响被农业部定为主要自然灾害地区。截至2月12日，美国有56%的国土面积仍处于干旱状态。

Case LaoBo pointed out that,Drought, the weather will be affecting American agricultural output and export the main uncertainties.Last year the United States forty-eight states have two-thirds of the area have been more than a moderate drought disaster,The United States is 56 years ago had the most severe drought.In the spring sowing time,The United States continued drought,There are 14 state 597 counties by drought and high temperature influenced by the ministry of agriculture as the main natural disaster areas.By February 12,,The United States has 56% of the land area is still in the dry state.

　　格劳伯说，受旱情影响，美国玉米产量预计将有所下降，进而将2013财年玉米出口量拉低至上世纪70年代以来的最低水平，预计巴西将在2013年取代美国成为世界最大玉米出口国。

Case LaoBo said,drought-affected,U.S. corn production is expected to decline,And then will be in fiscal year 2013 corn exports down first century of the lowest level since 70 s,In 2013 is expected to Brazil will overtake America as the world's largest exporter of corn.

　　为期3天的美国农业前景论坛是美国农业部主办的年度论坛，今年是第89届，以“管理21世纪的风险”为主题，来自全美乃至全世界的农业专家、政策制定者和农业生产者等利益相关方在此共同探讨国际贸易、风险管理、供需前景和粮食价格等话题。

The three-day American agriculture prospect BBS is sponsored by the United States department of agriculture's annual BBS,This year is the 89th,to"The risk of management in the 21st century"As the theme,From the United States and the world agricultural experts/Policy makers and agricultural producers and stakeholder in the international trade to discuss/Risk management/Supply and demand prospects and food prices such as topic.