受日本力推宽松货币政策的影响，去年四季度以来日元对美元汇率快速贬值，跌幅高达约20%。而在此期间，包括中国在内很多亚洲新兴经济体货币对美元则保持稳定，这使得这些货币相对日元出现较大升值。日元的急剧贬值引发了可能爆发全球或地区货币战的广泛担忧。与日本相邻的韩国和中国台湾地区，已对日元贬值对其产业竞争力的影响深表忧虑。日前与本报记者连线的大和资本大中华区首席经济学家孙明春表示，对于像日本这样外债不多的国家来说，本币急剧贬值除了提升通胀外对经济的负面影响很小。但是，对于外债水平高的国家来说，即使大部分债务为长期的，本币剧贬也可能造成灾难性后果，因其增大了流动性和违约风险。他预计，亚洲一旦爆发货币战，外债居多的国家如越南将受到较大冲击。

Influenced by Japan pulled loose monetary policy,In the fourth quarter of last year the yen against the dollar depreciate quickly,Losses as high as about 20%.During that time,Many Asian emerging economies, including China's currency has remained stable against the dollar,This makes the currency relative to a big rise in the yen.A sharp decline in the value of the yen sparked a global or regional currency war could erupt widely concern.Neighbouring South Korea and Chinese Taiwan area and Japan,Have the yen to its deep concern over the influence of industrial competitiveness.Have attachment with our reporter said daiwa capital greater China chief economist sun mingchun,For foreign debt of the few countries like Japan,Local currency devaluation in addition to raising the inflation sharply negative economic impact is very small.but,For countries that have high levels of external debt,Even if most of the debt is long term,Currency plays also may cause catastrophic consequences,Because of the increased liquidity and risk of default.He expects the,Once the outbreak of currency war in Asia,External debt is in the majority of countries such as Vietnam, it will have larger impact.

　　具体而言，巴克莱资本亚洲首席经济学家黄益平认为，无论全球是否会爆发全面的货币战，贬值的日元都会施压亚洲新兴经济体货币，韩元和台币值得关注，因韩国和台湾不仅面临来自日本的直接竞争，还是东亚传统的“日元障碍”成员。谈及对中国的影响，黄益平认为日元走软对中国对外账户整体状况影响有限，但会让中国对日贸易逆差扩大。更重要的是，如果日元疲弱导致亚洲新兴经济体货币普遍走软，对中国企业竞争力的影响可能变得更加明显。

To be specific,Huang yiping, chief Asia economist at barclays capital said,No matter whether the world will be an all-out currency war,Currency depreciation of the yen will put pressure on Asia's emerging economies,The south Korean won t worthy of attention,Because not only have direct competition from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan,Or east Asian traditions"The obstacles"Members of the.When it comes to impact on China,Mr. Huang that yen weakness influence on China's foreign account overall situation is limited,But the wider trade deficit will let the China day.What is more important,If the yen weakens and emerging Asia currency weakness,The impact on the Chinese enterprise competitiveness may become more obvious.

　　如果亚洲真的爆发货币战，对曾饱受亚洲金融危机冲击的东盟各国会造成怎样的影响？

If Asian currency war really broke out,For ever by the Asian financial crisis hit asean countries will cause what kind of impact?

　　孙明春告诉记者，因东盟成员国的多数出口商不是日本出口商的直接竞争者，日元贬值对东盟经济的直接影响很小。长期来看，经济基本面的改善将支持东盟各国本币升值。而一旦亚洲出现货币竞争性贬值，影响将是巨大的，且将引发连锁反应，外债居多的国家如越南将受到较大冲击。

Sun mingchun, told reporters,For asean members most exporters are not direct competitors of Japanese exporters,The yen have little impact on asean economy directly.In the long run,Improving economic fundamentals will support asean countries currency appreciation.Once appear competitive devaluations in Asia,The impact would be huge,And will trigger a chain reaction,External debt is in the majority of countries such as Vietnam, it will have larger impact.

　　在经历了16年前的亚洲金融危机的洗礼之后，亚洲各经济体都积极去杠杆化，政府量入为出，财赤与国债水平都偏低。去年下半年，亚洲重新出现外汇储备上升的局面：去年第三、第四季度，亚洲10个经济体外汇储备每季增长约800亿美元,平均每天约1亿美元。不过，越南等少数外债水平与外汇储备比率较高的国家容易受到货币战的冲击。数据显示，到2011年末，越南短期外债占外汇储备比例高达76%。

After 16 years ago, after the baptism of the Asian financial crisis,Asian economies have actively deleveraging,The government make ends meet,Deficit and debt levels are low.In the second half of last year,To appear the situation of rising foreign exchange reserves in Asia:In the third/In the fourth quarter,10 Asian economies quarterly growth in foreign exchange reserves of about $80 billion,About $100 million a day on average.but,Vietnam a few in countries with high levels of external debt and foreign exchange reserves ratio is vulnerable to the impact of the currency war.According to data,At the end of 2011,Vietnam short-term foreign debt up to 76% of foreign exchange reserves.

　　“对短期外债占外汇储备比率较高的国家来说，本币贬值会触发资本的突然流出，使该国难以偿付其短期外债。在这种情况下，如果该国外汇储备告罄，一场货币危机可能爆发。”孙明春如是表示。若以此标准来衡量，东盟成员国中越南最为脆弱，而其他成员国则相对安全。同时，“对外债的借用者来说，本币的急剧贬值大幅增加了其以本币计算的债务负担。如果其商业收益主要来自于国内销售，本币贬值30%~40%会很容易迫使其违约。”他说。而以此标准来衡量，老挝和越南似乎是东盟中最为脆弱的国家，2011年其外债总水平分别占到GDP的75%和47%。

"For short-term foreign debt account for a higher share of foreign exchange reserves country,Devaluation would trigger a sudden outflow of capital,To make the country to pay its short-term foreign debt.In this case,If the country's foreign exchange reserves run out,A currency crisis could erupt."Mingchun sun said.If this measure,The association of southeast Asian nations in Vietnam the most vulnerable,And other members are relatively safe.At the same time,"For external use,A sharp decline in the value of their currencies sharply increased its debt burden in local currency terms.If the business income mainly comes from the domestic sales,30% ~ 40% devaluation can easily force his default."He said.And this measure,Laos and Vietnam seems to be the most vulnerable countries in the association of southeast Asian nations (asean),In 2011 the total external debt levels respectively 75% and 47% of GDP.

　　值得注意的是，亚洲爆发货币战并非是大和资本对2013年的基本预测情境。除非爆发货币战，大和预计未来几年大多数东盟货币将继续升值，因经济基本面改善和制造业从中国迁移到东盟。事实上，自2007年以来，受到引起外汇储备大增的经常账户的改善（越南除外），大多数东盟成员国货币都对美元升值，实际有效汇率也呈升值趋势，但幅度一直比较温和（自2007年以来升值21%的新加坡元除外），从汇率角度看本币升值对东盟出口商的全球竞争力损害有限。

It is worth noting,Asia currency war is not the daiwa capital forecast 2013 basic situation.Barring a currency war,And most asean currencies will continue to rise in the next few years,Because of the improving economic fundamentals and manufacturing migrated from China to the association of southeast Asian nations (asean).In fact,,Since 2007,Caused by foreign exchange reserves in the improvement of the current account(Except for Vietnam),Most of the asean member countries currency appreciation against the dollar,The real effective exchange rate also showed a trend of rise,But has been relatively modest(Since 2007, except for a 21% appreciation of the Singapore dollar),From a currency perspective currency appreciation of the association of southeast Asian nations (asean) global competitiveness of exporters limited damage.

　　上述分析显示，如果爆发货币战，越南将是东盟成员国中最脆弱的经济体，因其短期外债占外汇储备的比例最高且外债总额占GDP比例第二高。另外，越南还是2007年至2012年东盟成员国中外汇储备下降的唯一国家，目前其外汇储备只能覆盖其1.4个月的进口，以任何标准来衡量都很低。值得注意的是，孙明春认为，越南是经历了2008年严重经济危机的发展中经济体，经济仍在复苏之中，因此对外部冲击非常敏感。

The above analysis shows,If the currency war,Vietnam is the most vulnerable economies in the association of southeast Asian nations (asean) member countries,Because of its short-term foreign debt has the highest proportion of foreign exchange reserves and the second-highest total debt to GDP.In addition,Vietnam has 2007 to 2012, the association of southeast Asian nations (asean) member countries dropped the only country in the foreign exchange reserves,At present its foreign exchange reserves can only cover the 1.4 months of imports,By any measure.It is worth noting,Sun mingchun think,Vietnam has experienced a serious economic crisis of 2008 is in the development of economy,The economy is still in recovery,So is sensitive to external shocks.

　　尽管如此，除非爆发货币战，大和资本仍将越南视为东盟各国中最有前途的成员之一。据悉，2012年，美国企业将越南列为最受欢迎的拓展业务地区，当年越南还实现了20年来首次贸易盈余，终结了2011年下半年以来本币的贬值趋势。随着制造业逐步从中国迁出，大和资本预计未来10年越南经济将出现快速增长。

In spite of this,Barring a currency war,Daiwa capital still see Vietnam as one of the most promising members of asean countries.It is understood,In 2012,,American companies will be listed as one of the most popular in Vietnam business area,The Vietnam also implements the trade surplus for the first time in 20 years,Put an end to the trend of depreciation of the currency since the second half of 2011.As manufacturing gradually moved from China,Daiwa capital over the next 10 years, Vietnam's economy is expected to grow rapidly.