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陈湛匀:重掌国际贸易的主导权--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2013-03-04

  著名学者、上海市投资学会副会长陈湛匀教授就“重掌国际贸易的主导权”发表演说。陈教授提到:最近美国商务部发布数据显示,低于10万美元的房库存出现了紧张,住房成交价格趋势在上升,此外美国供应管理协会(ISM)公布数据显示,美国1月份的制造业活动指数已上升到53.1,这意味着美国的制造业正在企稳回升。种种迹象表明美国经济正释放企稳的信号。显然,奥巴马政府在应对国内经济问题的同时,正在积极筹划和重掌国际贸易的主导权。

Famous scholar/Professor Chen Zhan, vice chairman of Shanghai investment to learn well it"Return to the dominance of international trade"Make a speech.Professor Chen mentioned:The U.S. department of commerce recently released figures show,Less than $100000 of room inventory appeared nervous,Housing transaction price trend is rising,In addition the institute for supply management(The ISM)According to the data published,U.S. manufacturing activity index rose to 53.1 in January,This means that American manufacturing is stabilising picks up.Indications that the economy is stabilizing release signal.clearly,The Obama administration in response to domestic economic problems at the same time,Are actively planning and return to the dominance of international trade.

  以下是陈教授的部分观点实录:

The following is part of professor Chen view activity:

  如果美国和欧洲两大经济体人口与中国人口相比,那末会相差很大,但是欧美两大经济体的国内生产总值占到世界50%,而两大经济体贸易量占全球33%。

If the population of the United States and European economies compared with the population of China,Then will vary widely,But the two largest economies in Europe and America's gross domestic product (GDP) accounted for 50% of the world,The two economies trade accounted for 33% of the world.

  在当今经济环境下,美国十分关注全球贸易的控制力,比如,现在正启动美欧自贸区建立的谈判,美国很重视这个谈判,正处于箭在弦上,其规模远远超过了北美自贸区;除此以外,美国还致力于TPP(跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定),这是亚太地区重要的经济合作机制。最初TPP是由新西兰、新加坡、智利、文莱发起,旨在实现所有商品零关税,实现彻底开放。虽然全球经济低迷,但对于美国利益来说,美国的重返亚太战略和欧美自由贸易协定战略是具有至关重要的现实意义。美国跨两大洋的贸易谈判也许很有可能拉锯战,但是奥巴马政府高度重视。

In today's economic environment,The United States is very concerned about global trade control,Such as the,Now start set up free trade area negotiations in the us and Europe,The United States attaches great importance to the negotiations,Is in the offing,Its size more than the north American free trade area;In addition to this,The United States is also committed to the TPP(The trans-pacific strategic economic partnership agreement),This is important in the asia-pacific region economic cooperation mechanism.Initially the TPP is from New Zealand/Singapore/Chile/Brunei has launched,To achieve zero tariffs on all goods,Realize the completely open.Although the global economic downturn,But for U.S. interests,In the United States and Europe and the United States to return to the asia-pacific strategy fta strategy is has vital practical significance.Us across two oceans of trade talks may be likely to fight,But the Obama government attaches great importance to.

  但是欧债危机现状令人烦恼。比如西班牙首相牵扯“黑全”丑闻,西班牙国内经济持续衰退,已高达25%以上的高失业率;希腊也处于高失业率状态,劳动力市场及其疲弱,都已触及欧元区可以承受的上限,西班牙和希腊是否会退出欧元区?意大利银行又出现巨亏;欧元区各国政府预算紧缩、消费低迷,不少企业破产,因此大家担忧欧债危机将重来,现在欧元持续升值是暂时的,资本也许不久会流出欧洲;相比较而言,亚太地区的经济潜力很大,虽然具体落实TPP难度很大,但美国将会全力以赴,并致力于将日本囊括TPP。

But the European debt crisis is an annoyance.Such as Spain's prime minister is involved"All black"scandal,Spanish domestic economy continues to decline,High unemployment rate has been above 25%;Greece is in a state of high unemployment,The Labour market and its weakness,Have hit the euro zone can withstand the limit,Spain and Greece's exit from the eurozone?Italian Banks appeared losses;The euro zone's governments budget austerity/Depressed consumption,A lot of enterprise bankruptcy,So everyone worries about Europe's debt crisis will come back,Now the euro continued appreciation is temporary,Capital may flow out soon to Europe;In comparison,The asia-pacific region's economic potential is very large,Though the implementation of the TPP is very difficult,But the United States will do our best,And commitment to Japan includes the TPP.

  最近美国商务部发布数据显示,低于10万美元的房库存出现了紧张,住房成交价格趋势在上升,此外美国供应管理协会(ISM)公布数据显示,美国1月份的制造业活动指数已上升到53.1,这意味着美国的制造业正在企稳回升。种种迹象表明美国经济正释放企稳的信号。显然,奥巴马政府在应对国内经济问题的同时,正在积极筹划和重掌国际贸易的主导权。 

The U.S. department of commerce recently released figures show,Less than $100000 of room inventory appeared nervous,Housing transaction price trend is rising,In addition the institute for supply management(The ISM)According to the data published,U.S. manufacturing activity index rose to 53.1 in January,This means that American manufacturing is stabilising picks up.Indications that the economy is stabilizing release signal.clearly,The Obama administration in response to domestic economic problems at the same time,Are actively planning and return to the dominance of international trade. 



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