1-2月物流协会制造业PMI连续小幅回落；汇丰PMI在1月回升后2月明显回落；但它们都还是位于扩张区间，指向经济仍是在改善。结合新订单和生产量分项的走势，我们认为供需更趋平衡。预计1-2月工业累计同比10.4%，投资累计同比20.0%。

1-2 months continuous manufacturing PMI retreated slightly logistics association;The HSBC PMI rebounded in February after apparently back in January;But they are still in expansion interval,Pointing to the economy is still in improvement.Combined with new orders and production item,We think the supply and demand are more balanced.Compared with the 10.4% expected industrial 1-2 month,Investment of 20.0% year-on-year.

　　春节后农业部、商务部的农产品高频价格都出现回落，但2月相对于1月食品平均价格仍是上涨，预计CPI同比升至3.0%，其明显上升是春节影响，3月份会回落。物流协会PMI购进价格指数仍是明显高于50，预计PPI继续环比增长，同比收窄至-1.4%。

The Spring Festival after the ministry of agriculture/The ministry of commerce produce high-frequency prices fall,But 2 phases of the moon food for 1 month average price is still rising,Expect CPI rose to 3.0% year-on-year,Its rise is the Spring Festival effect obviously,To fall in March.Logistics association the PMI purchasing prices index is still significantly higher than 50,PPI is expected to continue expanding,Narrowed to 1.4% year-on-year.

　　2月制造业PMI新出口、进口订单都是在收缩区间走低，参考2月韩国的进出口(韩国出口同样受到春节影响，对美国出口在1-2月平均比12年四季度明显改善)，再考虑到人民币有效汇率被动升值会进一步拖累出口，预计进出口同比分别为-8.0%和0.0%，贸易顺差将收窄。

February manufacturing PMI's new export/Import orders are all fell within the range of contraction,South Korea's import and export reference 2 month(South Korea's exports also affected by the Spring Festival,Exports to the United States in 1 to 2 months, on average, than the 12 years in the fourth quarter improved significantly),Considering the passive appreciation of RMB effective exchange rate will further drag on exports,Is expected to import and export were 8.0% and 8.0% respectively compared to the same,Trade surplus will narrow.

　　预计M1为12.3%，M2为15.5%，新增信贷8000亿元左右。

M1 is expected to 12.3%,M2 is 15.5%,New lending for 800 billion yuan.