招商证券首席经济学家丁安华表示，在总体经济状况依然偏冷，特别是外需不确定的情况下，考虑到金融系统性风险，稳增长仍是首要目标，因此财政政策将继续积极，货币政策则相对稳健，一季度内，暂时通胀问题不会导致政策基调的变化。

China merchants securities chief economist who said Mr Anwar,In the overall economic situation is still rather cold,Especially under the condition of external demand uncertainty,Considering the financial systemic risk,Steady growth is the primary target,So fiscal policy will continue to actively,Monetary policy is relatively steady,Within the first quarter,Temporary problems will not lead to inflation policy changes in tone.

　　“第一财经首席经济学家月度调研”2013年2月23家机构调研名单（按拼音顺序排列）：

"The first chief economist monthly survey of finance and economics"In February 2013, 23 institutions research list(In order of pinyin):

　　曹远征：中国银行首席经济学家

Cao yuanzheng:The bank of China chief economist

　　丁爽：花旗集团中国高级经济学家

Ding Shuang:Citigroup inc., a senior economist at China

　　丁安华：招商证券首席经济学家

Ding Anhua:China merchants securities chief economist

　　胡艳妮：中信建投证券宏观分析师

Hu Yanni:Citic jiantou securities analyst

　　李苗献：交银国际宏观分析师

Li Miao offer:Bocom international macroeconomic analyst

　　连平：交通银行首席经济学家

Even the flat:Chief economist at bank of communications

　　林采宜：国泰君安证券首席经济学家

Adopt appropriate Lin:Guotai junan securities chief economist

　　刘红哿：建银国际证券首席经济学家

Liu hong Ge:CCB international securities chief economist

　　刘利刚：澳新银行大中华区首席经济学家

Liu ligang at anz:Anz bank chief economist for greater China

　　鲁政委：兴业银行首席经济学家

Lu zhengwei:Chief economist at societe generale

　　陆挺：美银美林大中华区首席经济学家

lu:Bank of America merrill lynch chief economist for greater China

　　马骏：德意志银行大中华区首席经济学家

ma:Deutsche bank chief economist for greater China

　　潘向东：中国银河证券首席经济学家

Pan Xiangdong:China galaxy securities chief economist

　　彭文生：中金公司首席经济学家

Wensheng peng:Cicc's chief economist

　　邱晓华：民生证券首席经济学家

Qiu xiaohua:Minsheng securities chief economist

　　沈建光：瑞穗证券亚洲首席经济学家

Shen jianguang:Chief economist at mizuho securities Asia

　　宋宇：高盛高华证券中国经济学家

Yu song:Goldman sachs gao hua securities economist in China

　　汪涛：瑞银证券中国区首席经济学家

Wang tao:Ubs securities, chief economist for China

　　王志浩：渣打银行大中华区首席经济学家

Stephen green,:Standard chartered bank's chief economist for greater China

　　张晶：华泰联合证券首席宏观分析师

zhang:Huatai united securities, chief macroeconomic analyst

　　朱海斌：摩根大通中国首席经济学家

Zhu Haibin:Jpmorgan chase's chief China economist

　　诸建芳：中信证券首席经济学家

ZhuJianFang:Chief economist at citic securities

　　朱元德：摩根士丹利经济学家

Zhu Yuande:An economist at Morgan Stanley

　　2013年2月“第一财经首席经济学家月度调研”显示，来自国内外23家金融机构的首席经济学家预测，2月通胀压力再度抬头，预测均值为3.0%，较国家统计局公布的1月水平（2.0%）大幅攀升。2月新增贷款较1月出现回落，预测均值为7657亿元，大幅低于央行公布的1月规模（10700亿元）。

In February, 2013,"The first chief economist monthly survey of finance and economics"According to,From 23 financial institutions both at home and abroad, the chief economist forecasts,February inflation pressures resurgence,Forecast of 3.0%,The national bureau of statistics announced January level(2.0%)Rise sharply.In February in new loans from January decline,Forecast for 765.7 billion yuan,Substantially below the central bank announced in January(1.07 trillion yuan).

　　受春节因素影响，2月贸易可能出现季节性逆差，预测均值为逆差33亿美元，进出口增速也双双较上月水平出现大幅回落。

Affected by factors during the Spring Festival,February trade seasonal deficit may occur,Forecast to $3.3 billion deficit,Import and export growth also have both a level dropped sharply last month.

　　3月“第一财经首席经济学家信心指数”为51.1，略低于上月水平（51.3）。

In march"The first financial's chief economist, confidence"51.1,Slightly lower than last month(51.3).

　　信心指数：预测均值

confidence:forecast

　　51.1 略有回落

51.1 Down slightly

　　调研结果显示，2013年3月“第一财经首席经济学家信心指数”预测均值为51.1，中位数为50.5，较2月信心指数水平（51.3）略有回落。其中，国泰君安证券给出了最大值53.0，瑞穗证券给出了最小值50.2。

Research results show that,In March 2013"The first financial's chief economist, confidence"Forecast of 51.1,The median of 50.5,A confidence level in February(51.3)Down slightly.Among them,Guotai junan securities gives the maximum value of 53.0,Mizuho securities gives the minimum value of 50.2.

　　3月1日，中国物流与采购联合会、国家统计局服务业调查中心发布数据显示，2月中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。

On March 1,,The China federation of logistics and purchasing/The national bureau of statistics service industry research center data show,In February China manufacturing purchasing managers index(The PMI)Of 50.1%,0.3% lower than last month.

　　瑞穗证券亚洲首席经济学家沈建光解释称，2月PMI指数下降的部分原因在于中国农历新年引起的波动，同时也表明2012年四季度开始的复苏主要是政策拉动，而不是具有广泛基础的反弹，预计未来几个季度的经济增长将是温和的。

Chief economist at mizuho securities Asia shen jianguang explained,The PMI fell in February fluctuations caused part of the reason is the Chinese lunar New Year,At the same time also shows that in the fourth quarter of 2012 was mainly pulled policy began to recovery,Rather than a broad-based rally,The next few quarters economic growth is expected to is mild.

　　不过，花旗集团中国高级经济学家丁爽认为，尽管官方和汇丰银行的PMI在2月份同时下降，但仍高于50，表明温和的复苏得以维持，而且在较宽松的货币信贷条件下，经济下行的风险较小。

but,Senior ding shuang, an economist at citigroup, the Chinese thought,Although the official and the HSBC The PMI in February fell at the same time,But still higher than 50,Suggests that moderate recovery will be maintained,And under the condition of looser monetary credit,Economic downturn risk is smaller.

　　民生证券首席经济学家邱晓华认为，受春节影响，2月经济增长指标较弱而居民消费价格较高，经济增速呈现1月高、2月低、3月回归正常的温和复苏趋势，预测一季度GDP增速与去年四季度基本持平或略有提高。

Minsheng securities chief economist think Mr Qiu,Affected by the Spring Festival,Weak economic growth index in February and consumer price is higher,Economic growth appears high in January/February is low/Moderate recovery trend of march to return to normal,Forecast first-quarter GDP growth and the basic flat or slightly increases in the fourth quarter of last year.

　　招商证券首席经济学家丁安华表示，受前期政策影响，总需求开始逐步企稳，经济主体库存行为也逐步发生转换，在政策相对稳定的背景下，经济主体投资信心可能有所恢复，2013年一季度经济将会保持回升的趋势。

China merchants securities chief economist who said Mr Anwar,Affected by the previous policy,Aggregate demand began to gradually stabilized,Economic subject inventory behavior also gradually transformed,In the policy under the background of relatively stable,Economic subject investment confidence might be restored,In the first quarter of 2013 the economy will keep back up trend.

　　国泰君安证券首席经济学家林采宜分析称，去年四季度以来，中国经济持续回升，下游地产汽车等行业恢复带动中上游行业增长，未来经济回升更能持续，预测2013年GDP增速回升至8.1%，未来四个季度增速分别为8.2%、8.3%、8.1%和7.8%，其中融资总量将是影响经济增长最为重要的因素之一，其领先经济大约一个季度时间，而1月社会融资总量增速大幅攀升，使得今年上半年经济回升更加明确。

Guotai junan securities chief economist, said Lin pick appropriate analysis,Since the fourth quarter of last year,China's economy continues to rebound,Downstream property auto industries lead shelter-forest industry growth recovery,Future economic recovery to continue,Forecast GDP growth rose to 8.1% in 2013,The next four quarterly growth of 8.2%, respectively/8.3%/8.1% and 7.8%,Amount of financing will be one of the most important factors affect economic growth,The leading economic about a quarter of the time,And total social financing growth sharply in January,Make more clear economic recovery during the first half of the year.

　　不过，中国银行首席经济学家曹远征提醒，2013年我国面临的外部不确定因素较多，经济增长动力将由“三驾马车”转为“双轮驱动”，内需尤其是消费将成为拉动经济增长的主引擎，中国经济将进入中高速增长“新常态”，主要原因在于支撑中国经济过去三十年高增长的一些因素正在发生重大变化，预计全年经济有所回升，GDP增长8%左右，但动力依然较弱，属于中长期放缓趋势下的短期波动。

but,Cao yuanzheng, chief economist at the bank of China,In 2013 our country facing the external uncertainties,Economic growth will be"troika"to"Two-wheel drive",Domestic demand, especially consumption will become the main engine of economic growth,China's economy will enter a rapid growth"The new normal",Support China's economic growth in the past three decades mainly due to some of the factors is undergoing major changes,Expected the economy to rebound,GDP growth at around 8%,But power is still weaker,Belongs to the medium to long term slowing trend of short-term volatility.

　　CPI：预测均值

The CPI:forecast

　　3.0% 大幅回升

3.0% sharply

　　调研结果显示，2月CPI同比增速预测均值和中位数为3.0%，较国家统计局公布的1月水平（2.0%）大幅跃升。其中，渣打银行和瑞银证券给出了最大值3.3%，中国银行给出了最小值2.5%。

Research results show that,February year-on-year growth forecasts mean and median of 3.0%,The national bureau of statistics announced January level(2.0%)Jumped sharply.Among them,Standard chartered bank and ubs securities gives the maximum 3.3%,The bank of China gives the minimum 2.5%.

　　建银国际证券首席经济学家刘红哿表示，随着经济保持温和复苏态势，一季度通胀将维持在2.6%的可控水平。

CCB international securities chief economist liu Ge said,As the economy keep modest recovery situation,In the first quarter inflation will remain at 2.6% level of control.

　　林采宜认为，食品价格上涨或推动短期通胀反弹，但通胀压力依然不高，预计2013年CPI为3.1%，未来四个季度CPI分别为2.5%、2.9%、3.3%和3.8%，通胀整体维持低位。

Adopt appropriate think Lin,Rising food prices rebound or promote short-term inflation,But inflation pressure is still not high,Expected CPI is 3.1% in 2013,The next four quarter CPI 2.5% respectively/2.9%/3.3% and 3.8%,Inflation remains low as a whole.

　　不过，丁爽指出，2月份的通胀将会明显上升，同比达到3%左右，虽然这是预想中的，和节日因素有关，但季节调整后环比通胀的加速还是会引发担忧，央行当月回收流动性，特别是回购业务的恢复，除了是为了应对1月份货币信贷过度投放外，想必也是为了管理通胀预期。

but,Ding Shuang pointed out,The February inflation will rise significantly,Around 3% year-on-year,Although this is expected,And factors related to the festival,But the seasonally adjusted month-on-month the acceleration of inflation may concern,Central bank withdraws liquidity during the month,Especially the buyback business recovery,In addition to being in response to monetary credit excesses in January,Presumably also for managing inflation expectations.

　　交通银行首席经济学家连平表示，CPI正进入新一轮上升周期的初期阶段，预计一季度CPI同比将高于去年四季度，全年CPI同比将上涨3%~3.5%。

Traffic bank's chief economist said,The early stages of the CPI is entering a new round of rising cycle,Quarter year-on-year CPI is expected to go higher than in the fourth quarter of last year,CPI will rise 3% ~ 3.5% compared to the same all the year round.

　　沈建光也认为，2013年通胀压力将会重现，主要原因来自四个方面：物业价格回升、输入性通胀压力、猪肉价格周期上升以及2012年国内信贷扩张。

Shen jianguang said,Inflationary pressures will be back in 2013,Main reasons from four aspects:Property prices recover/Imported inflationary pressures/Pork price cycle to rise and domestic credit expansion in 2012.

　　在CPI通胀再度攀升的同时，PPI同比增速缓慢回升。调研结果显示，2月PPI同比增速预测均值和中位数为-1.5%，较国家统计局公布的1月水平（-1.6%）略有回升。其中，美银美林给出了最大值-1.2%，华泰联合给出了最小值-1.8%。

In CPI inflation to climb again and at the same time,Producer prices inched back year-on-year growth.Research results show that,Mean and median of PPI February year-on-year growth forecast of 1.5%,The national bureau of statistics announced January level(- 1.6%)Improved slightly.Among them,Bank of America merrill lynch - 1.2% maximum is presented,Huatai united gives the minimum value to 1.8%.

　　连平表示，市场生产需求逐渐复苏对生产性价格的推动作用已逐步显现，预计2月份PPI环比上涨0.2%，同比略有上行，估计约-1.5%，PPI同比进入缓慢回升阶段，一季度PPI同比在-1.5%~-1.2%之间。

Even he said,Market demand recovery of productive price role has gradually appeared,Expected PPI rose 0.2% in February,Compared with the same slightly upward,An estimated 1.5%,PPI compared to enter the stage of slow recovery,PPI between - 1.5% ~ 1.2% as compared with the same period last year.

　　1月CPI同比增速（2.0%）

The CPI in January year-on-year growth(2.0%)

　　最佳预测：2.0%

The best prediction:2.0%

　　曹远征：中国银行

Cao yuanzheng:The bank of China

　　李苗献：交银国际

Li Miao offer:Bocom international

　　马骏：德意志银行

ma:Deutsche bank

　　汪涛：瑞银集团

Wang tao:ubs

　　张智威：野村证券

Zhang Zhiwei:Nomura securities

　　1月最佳预测经济学家2月预测：

January best predict economists forecast in February:

　　曹远征：2.5%

Cao yuanzheng:2.5%

　　李苗献：3.0%

Li Miao offer:3.0%

　　马骏：2.7%

ma:2.7%

　　汪涛：3.3%

Wang tao:3.3%

　　张智威：本期暂缺

Zhang Zhiwei:The current vacant

　　1月PPI同比增速（-1.6%）

PPI January year-on-year growth(- 1.6%)

　　最佳预测：-1.6%

The best prediction:- 1.6%

　　林采宜：国泰君安

Adopt appropriate Lin:Guotai junan

　　汪涛：瑞银集团

Wang tao:ubs

　　王志浩：渣打银行

Stephen green,:Standard chartered bank

　　诸建芳：中信证券

ZhuJianFang:Citic securities,

　　1月最佳预测经济学家2月预测：

January best predict economists forecast in February:

　　林采宜：-1.3%

Adopt appropriate Lin:- 1.3%

　　汪涛：-1.5%

Wang tao:- 1.5%

　　王志浩：-1.4%

Stephen green,:- 1.4%

　　诸建芳：-1.5%

ZhuJianFang:- 1.5%

　　社会消费品零售总额：预测均值

Social total retail sales of consumer goods:forecast

　　15.1% 略有回落

15.1% Down slightly

　　调研结果显示，2013年1~2月社会消费品零售总额同比增速预测均值为15.1%，中位数为15.0%，均较国家统计局公布的2012年12月水平（15.2%）略有回落。其中，银河证券给出了最大值16.7%，民生证券给出了最小值14.1%。

Research results show that,2013, total retail sales of social consumer goods 1 ~ 2 month year-on-year growth forecast of 15.1%,The median of 15.0%,From the national bureau of statistics released in December 2012(15.2%)Down slightly.Among them,Galaxy securities gives the maximum 16.7%,Minsheng securities gives the minimum 14.1%.

　　中信证券首席经济学家诸建芳预计，1~2月零售增长相对稳定。他指出，春节黄金周零售增长14.7%，相对前期年份有所下降，但考虑到房地产销售仍在回暖，汽车零售保持走高，1~2月社会消费品零售总额增速将相对稳定，同比增长15%左右。

Citic securities chief economist ZhuJianFang is expected,1 ~ 2 month retail sales growth is relatively stable.He pointed out that,The Spring Festival golden week retail sales growth of 14.7%,Relatively early years fell,But given the real estate sales is still in recovery,Automotive retail keep higher,Total retail sales of social consumer goods 1 ~ 2 month growth will be relatively stable,Year-on-year growth of around 15%.

　　不过，沈建光认为，1~2月零售销售增速可能会略有缓解，这是由于政府的反腐和节俭导向。根据商务部的数据，农历新年假期商店和餐馆的销售额比2012年同期增长14.7%，相较2012年16.2%的同比增速有所下降，也是自2009年同比增速13.8%以来的最低增速。

but,Shen jianguang think,1 ~ 2 month retail sales growth may ease slightly,This is due to the government's anti-corruption and thrift oriented.According to the ministry of commerce data,The lunar New Year holiday shops and restaurant sales increased by 14.7% than the same period in 2012,Compared with 2012, down 16.2% year-on-year growth,Is also the lowest since 2009 year-on-year growth of 13.8% growth.

　　工业增加值：预测均值

The added value of industrial:forecast

　　10.6% 有所回升

10.6% recovered

　　调研结果显示，2013年1~2月工业增加值同比增速预测均值为10.6%，中位数为10.5%，较国家统计局公布的2012年12月水平（10.3%）有所回升。其中，摩根大通和瑞银证券给出了最大值11.1%，中金公司和中信建投给出了最小值10.0%。

Research results show that,Industrial added value 2013 1 ~ 2 month year-on-year growth forecast of 10.6%,The median of 10.5%,The national bureau of statistics (NBS) announced in December 2012(10.3%)recovered.Among them,J.p. Morgan chase and ubs securities gives the maximum 11.1%,Cicc and citic jiantou gives the minimum 10.0%.

　　诸建芳指出，虽然2月份PMI指数降至50.1%，但从新订单-产成品库存来看，1~2月缺口值高于去年年底，因此，1~2月工业增速将稳中微升，约为10.5%。

ZhuJianFang pointed out,Although the The PMI index fell to 50.1% in February,But the new orders - finished goods inventory,1 ~ 2 months gap value is higher than that at the end of last year,so,Industrial growth will be 1 ~ 2 month inched up in the stable,About 10.5% of the.

　　沈建光预计1~2月工业生产增长强劲，同比增速为11.0%，而2012年12月同比增速为10.3%。

Shen jianguang industrial production growth is expected to 1 ~ 2 month,Year-on-year growth of 11.0%,The year-on-year growth of 10.3% in December 2012.

　　连平认为，国内市场短期信心已基本恢复，投资有所回升，工业企业陆续进入补库存阶段，市场货币资金有所改善；加之国际环境可能弱复苏，初步预计，一季度工业增加值同比增速较去年四季度略有回升。

Even the flat to think,Domestic market short-term confidence has been largely restored,Investment recovered,Industrial enterprises have stepped into the stage of an inventory,Monetary fund market has improved;Combined with the international environment may be weak recovery,Preliminary estimate,Industrial added value growth rate in the fourth quarter from a year earlier as compared with the same period recovering slightly.

　　固定资产投资：预测均值

Investment in fixed assets:forecast

　　20.9%

20.9%

　　有所加快

To speed up

　　调研结果显示，2013年1~2月固定资产投资同比增速预测均值为20.9%，中位数为21.0%，均较国家统计局公布的2012年全年水平（20.6%）有所加快。其中，中信证券给出了最大值22.8%，国泰君安给出了最小值20.1%。

Research results show that,1 ~ 2, 2013 of investment in fixed assets year-on-year growth forecast of 20.9%,The median of 21.0%,From the national bureau of statistics reported level of 2012(20.6%)To speed up.Among them,Citic securities gives the maximum 22.8%,Guotai junan securities gives the minimum 20.1%.

　　诸建芳预计，随着高铁和城市地铁项目稳步推进，在去年低基数情况下，基建投资将保持较快增长；房地产市场明显回暖，地产投资回升，预计1~2月整体投资增长22.8%。

ZhuJianFang expected,As the high-speed rail and urban subway project steady progress,In the case of low base last year,Infrastructure investment will maintain rapid growth;The real estate market rebound obviously,Real estate investment recovery,Overall 22.8% investment growth is expected to 1 ~ 2 month.

　　连平分析称，1月份铁路、公路建设投资增速延续了去年年末强劲回升势头，预计1~2月份基建项目投资增速上升；前期集成板、浮法玻璃等建材价格出现较明显上涨，房地产销售市场较为活跃，投向地产领域的银行信贷也有所增加，预计1~2月份房地产投资增速回升；考虑到PMI及细项生产指数持续四个月高于临界值，PMI新订单指数创2012年5月以来新高，市场情绪趋于积极，预计1~2月份制造业投资增速企稳略升，因此综合判断1~2月固定资产投资累计增速回升至21%。

According to lian analysis,In January the railway/Highway construction investment growth continued the strong rally late last year,1 ~ 2 in infrastructure projects investment growth is expected to rise;Preliminary integration board/Appeared more obvious float glass and other building materials prices,Real estate sales market is active,To bank credit in the field of real estate also increased,1 ~ 2 in real estate investment growth is expected to pick up;Considering the The PMI index and fine production lasts four months is higher than the critical value,The The PMI index of new orders of record since May 2012,Market sentiment become positive,1 ~ 2 month manufacturing investment growth is expected to stabilizing rose slightly,So overall judgment 1 ~ 2 month cumulative growth of investment in fixed assets rose to 21%.

　　外贸：贸易逆差

The foreign trade:The trade deficit

　　33亿美元 进出口速度双降

Us $3.3 billion Import and export of double speed drop

　　继2012年2月之后，今年2月贸易再度出现季度性逆差。调研结果显示，2月贸易可能再度出现逆差，预测均值为-33亿美元。机构对2月贸易差额的看法分歧较大，11家机构认为2月贸易出现顺差，其中招商证券给出了最大值140亿美元；11家机构认为2月贸易将出现逆差，其中美银美林认为贸易逆差将高达256亿美元。

Since February 2012,In February trade quarterly deficit again.Research results show that,February trade may appear deficit again,Forecast to $3.3 billion.On February trade balance the gap is bigger,11 institutions occurred in February trade surplus,China merchants securities gives the maximum $14 billion;11 February trade agencies believe there will be a deficit,Including bank of America merrill lynch believes that the trade deficit will be $25.6 billion.

　　沈建光指出，2月PMI新出口订单分类指数显示，出口增速在短期内不可能显著改善，同时随着货币战争风险的上升，人民币相对价格上升将对中国出口企业不利，进口却在增加，因此，预计在一季度贸易顺差将下降到零。

Shen jianguang said,In February the The PMI's new export orders index,Export growth in the short term is unlikely to improve,At the same time as the rise of currency war risk,The yuan against Chinese export enterprises to higher relative prices,Import is increasing,so,Trade surplus in the first quarter is expected to drop to zero.

　　在出口方面，调研结果显示，2月出口同比增速预测均值为10.4%，中位数为13.3%，均较海关总署公布的1月水平（25.0%）大幅回落。其中，银河证券给出了最大值32.1%，国泰君安给出了最小值-15.5%。

In the export side,Research results show that,February exports year-on-year growth forecast of 10.4%,The median of 13.3%,From the general administration of customs announced on January level(25.0%)Dropped sharply.Among them,Galaxy securities gives the maximum 32.1%,Guotai junan securities gives the minimum value to 15.5%.

　　连平表示，由于2月份春节期间企业实际有效开工天数大幅缩减，进口规模将较上月回落；同时考虑到今年与去年春节错位因素形成的高基数效应，2月份进口同比增速将出现明显的负增长，不过随着国内有效需求扩张推动，预计未来一个季度进口增速将呈现出企稳走高态势。

Even he said,Due to the enterprise actual effective starting days during Spring Festival in February greatly reduced,Imports will be dropped from the previous month;At the same time considering this year and last year the Spring Festival displacement factors form the high base effect,Year-on-year growth in imports in February will appear obvious negative growth,But as effective domestic demand expansion,Import a future quarter growth is expected to present a higher stabilization.

　　在进口方面，调研结果显示，2月进口同比增速预测均值为-8.4%，中位数为-10.8%，较海关总署公布的1月水平（28.8%）大幅放缓。其中，国泰君安给出了最大值26.1%，德意志银行和高盛高华给出了最小值-16.0%。

On the import side,Research results show that,Imports in February year-on-year growth forecast of 8.4%,The median of 10.8%,The general administration of customs announced on January level(28.8%)A sharp slowdown in.Among them,Guotai junan gives the maximum 26.1%,Deutsche bank and Goldman sachs gao hua gives the minimum value to 16.0%.

　　连平预计，受2月春节期间实际有效工作天数大幅缩减的影响，外贸企业普遍存在出口延迟、有效开工不足的现象，致使出口规模明显回落，但考虑到国际市场需求较为平稳和去年同期的低基数效应，2月份出口同比增速相比上月明显回落。不过，连平预计，随着外需恢复性增长的推动，自二季度起，我国出口企稳的趋势将进一步明朗。

Even the flat is,By actual effective working days during the Spring Festival in February sharply reduced,Foreign trade export enterprise widespread delays/Effective capacity,The export scale down obviously,But considering the international market demand is relatively stable and low base effects during the same period last year,Exports in February year-on-year growth compared to last month fell significantly.but,Even the flat is,As the external restorative growth,Since the second quarter,China's export of stabilization trend will be further clear.

　　诸建芳认为，春节因素导致进出口增速下降。他表示，每值年尾和年初，“订单搬家”的情况时有发生，进出口数据的波动幅度增大；2月工作日的减少将会导致外贸数据出现较大幅度的回调，结合PMI等先行指标估计，预计出口增速为4%，进口增速为-12.5%，顺差为-91.1亿美元。

ZhuJianFang think,The Spring Festival factor led to the decrease of the import and export growth.He said,At the beginning of the end of the year and each value,"Order to move"Situations occur,Import and export data volatility increases;Working days in February data appear relatively substantially decrease will result in foreign trade,Combining with The PMI and other leading indicator to estimate,Expected export growth of 4%,Import growth of 12.5%,Surplus of $9.11 billion.

　　1月贸易顺差（291.5亿美元）

The trade surplus in January(Us $29.15 billion)

　　最佳预测：290亿美元

The best prediction:Us $29 billion

　　朱海斌：摩根士丹利

Zhu Haibin:Morgan Stanley

　　1月最佳预测经济学家2月预测：

January best predict economists forecast in February:

　　朱海斌：96亿美元

Zhu Haibin:Us $9.6 billion

　　1月出口同比增速（25.0%）

Exports in January year-on-year growth(25.0%)

　　最佳预测：26.3%

The best prediction:26.3%

　　邱晓华：民生证券

Qiu xiaohua:Minsheng securities

　　1月最佳预测经济学家2月预测：

January best predict economists forecast in February:

　　邱晓华：15.0%

Qiu xiaohua:15.0%

　　1月进口同比增速（28.8%）

January year-on-year growth in imports(28.8%)

　　最佳预测：28.3%

The best prediction:28.3%

　　张晶：华泰联合

zhang:Huatai united

　　1月最佳预测经济学家2月预测：

January best predict economists forecast in February:

　　张晶：-1.3%

zhang:- 1.3%

　　新增贷款：预测均值

New loans:forecast

　　7657亿元 大幅回落

765.7 billion yuan Dropped sharply

　　调研结果显示，2月新增贷款预测均值为7657亿元，中位数7700亿元，大幅低于央行公布的1月水平（10700亿元）。其中，美银美林给出了最大值8900亿元，高盛高华给出了最小值6500亿元。

Research results show that,New lending in February forecast for 765.7 billion yuan,A median of 770 billion yuan,Substantially below the central bank announced on January level(1.07 trillion yuan).Among them,Bank of America merrill lynch shows the maximum value of 890 billion yuan,Goldman sachs gao hua gives the minimum value of 650 billion yuan.

　　诸建芳预计，由于春节在2月份，同时1月份新增贷款较多，2月信贷将明显减少，预计新增贷款额在7500亿元左右，社会融资总量也将明显减少。

ZhuJianFang expected,Because of the Spring Festival in February,At the same time more in new loans in January,2 month credit will be significantly reduced,Expect new loans in 750 billion yuan,Total social financing will also be significantly reduced.

　　连平分析称，经济增长温和回升带动信贷需求平稳增长，年初信贷需求旺盛和银行放贷意愿较强的双重促进作用在2月仍会继续，而当前流动性较为充裕、存款压力不大也保证了银行的放贷能力，但由于实际工作天数减少和去年底积压项目基本在1月释放完毕，加之有部分银行存款压力较大，2月新增贷款较上月会有明显回落。

According to lian analysis,The modest economic growth picks up drive the steady growth of demand for credit,Early credit demand and bank lending will strong dual role in February will continue,While the current liquidity is relatively abundant/Deposit pressure is also guarantee the Banks' ability to lend,But thanks to a cut in actual working days and at the end of last year backlog items finished basic release in January,Combined with some pressure on bank deposits is bigger,In February in new loans from the previous month will have fallen significantly.

　　展望2013全年信贷规模，摩根大通中国首席经济学家朱海斌预计，全年银行贷款会增加9.1万亿元，同比上升14.5%，而社会融资总量里所包含的非银行融资部分将有所放缓。

Outlook 2013 full-year credit scale,Jpmorgan chase's chief China economist Zhu Haibin is expected,Throughout the year bank loans increased 9.1 trillion yuan,Rose 14.5% from a year,And total social financing part of non-bank financing it contains will be slowed.

　　1月新增贷款（10700亿元）

New loans in January(1.07 trillion yuan)

　　最佳预测：10500亿元

The best prediction:1.05 trillion yuan

　　邱晓华：民生证券

Qiu xiaohua:Minsheng securities

　　汪涛：瑞银证券

Wang tao:Ubs securities

　　张智威：野村证券

Zhang Zhiwei:Nomura securities

　　1月最佳预测经济学家2月预测：

January best predict economists forecast in February:

　　邱晓华：8000亿元

Qiu xiaohua:800 billion yuan

　　汪涛：7800亿元

Wang tao:780 billion yuan

　　张智威：本期暂缺

Zhang Zhiwei:The current vacant

　　M2：预测均值

The M2:forecast

　　15.1% 有所回落

15.1% Fell back

　　调研结果显示，2月M2同比增速预测均值为15.1%，中位数为15.0%，均较央行公布的1月水平（15.9%）有所回落。其中，渣打银行和摩根大通给出了最大值16.0%，花旗集团等3家机构给出了最小值14.5%。

Research results show that,M2 February year-on-year growth forecast of 15.1%,The median of 15.0%,The central bank announced January level(15.9%)Fell back.Among them,Standard chartered bank and jp Morgan chase gives the maximum 16.0%,Citigroup is given three institutions, such as the minimum 14.5%.

　　诸建芳预计，由于2月信贷较少，考虑到季节因素以及央行对货币有所收紧，2月M2增速可能有较大回落，预期同比增速在14.5%左右，显著低于1月份15.9%的同比增速。

ZhuJianFang expected,Due to the less 2 months credit,Taking into account seasonal factors and the central bank's monetary tightening,M2 growth in February may have large drop,Expect year-on-year growth at around 14.5%,Significantly less than 15.9% in January year-on-year growth.

　　连平认为，从近期货币市场的情况来看，当前流动性总体相对宽松，预示着存款情况依然不错，但鉴于年后央行加大现金回收和公开市场回笼力度，加之财政存款保持增长，预计2月新增M2较上月有明显下降。

Even the flat to think,Judging from recent currency market,The current liquidity overall relatively loose,Herald the deposit is still good,But given the year after the central bank drained cash recovery and open market,Combined with the fiscal deposit growth,Will add a M2 in February from the previous month has significantly decreased.

　　1月M2同比增速（15.9%）

M2 January year-on-year growth(15.9%)

　　最佳预测：15.1%

The best prediction:15.1%

　　宋宇：高盛高华

Yu song:Goldman sachs gao hua

　　1月最佳预测经济学家2月预测：

January best predict economists forecast in February:

　　宋宇：14.8%

Yu song:14.8%

　　调研结果显示，在给出3月存款准备金率预测的13家机构中，仅有摩根大通预测月内有降低存款准备金率的可能，其预期降准幅度为0.5个百分点。给出3月基准利率预测的14家机构均认为月内将保持稳定。

Research results show that,In march, give deposit reserve rate prediction of 13 institutions,Jpmorgan predicts only months has the potential to reduce the reserve requirement ratio,It is expected to drop 0.5%.Give a benchmark interest rate forecast in March 14 institutions that month will remain stable.

　　连平表示，2月CPI涨幅季节性回升，未来年物价将重新上行，但尚属温和，尚未到加息的时机，同时在经济稳步向好、流动性总体合理充裕的背景下，进一步降息已无必要，预计3月基准利率将保持稳定。

Even he said,February CPI growth seasonal rebound,Year prices will be up again in the future,But it is mild,Time has not to raise interest rates,At the same time in economic steadily going up/Under the background of overall reasonably adequate liquidity,Have no necessary to further lower interest rates,Benchmark interest rate in March is expected to remain stable.

　　兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委预计，3月份利率和准备金率等货币政策仍是“真空期”——整个2013年的降息窗口已彻底关闭，公开市场将正、逆回购均衡操作以维持中性流动性水平。

Lu zhengwei, chief economist at societe generale,In march, interest rates and reserve requirements, etc. Monetary policy is still"vacuum"- the whole window is completely closed to cut interest rates in 2013,Will is open market/Reverse repurchase balance operation in order to maintain a neutral level of liquidity.

　　摩根大通中国首席经济学家朱海斌认为，2013年人民银行可能将维持利率不变，并综合采用公开市场操作和调节存款准备金率的方式重点管理流动性，2013年将会有2~3次降低存款准备金率的空间。

Jpmorgan chase's chief China economist Zhu Haibin thought,In 2013 the people's bank will keep interest rates unchanged,And combination of open market operations and adjust the deposit reserve rate methods focus on liquidity management,In 2013 there will be 2 ~ 3 times lower the deposit reserve rate of space.

　　利率&存款准备金率：

Interest rates&The reserve requirement ratio:

　　仅1家预测月内降准

Only one prediction within the drop

　　汇率：年底看至 6.17

The exchange rate:At the end of the year to 6.17

　　调研结果显示，2013年年末人民币对美元中间价预测均值和中位数均为6.17，中位数为6.15，较上次调研水平（6.18）略有升值。其中，国泰君安预计年内贬值幅度最大，年底汇率看至6.30；澳新银行与民生证券预计年内升幅最大，年底看至6.10。

Research results show that,At the end of 2013 the yuan central parity rate against the dollar predicted mean and median of 6.17,The median of 6.15,The last research level(6.18)A little appreciation.Among them,Guotai junan expects this year of depreciation is the largest,Exchange rate at 6.30 at the end of the year;Anz bank and minsheng securities is expected to rise during the year is the largest,At the end of the year at 6.10.

　　来自中国外汇交易中心的最新数据显示，3月5日人民币对美元汇率中间价报6.2797，较前一交易日反弹25个基点。

According to the latest figures from the China foreign exchange trading center,On March 5, the yuan central parity rate against the dollar at 6.2797,The previous trading day rally by 25 basis points.

　　连平认为，在全球流动性宽松、各国货币有竞争性贬值趋势，加之升值不利于出口恢复的背景下，人民币明显升值的可能性不大，预计3月人民币对美元维持震荡或微幅升值格局。

Even the flat to think,In the global liquidity/Currencies have trend of competitive devaluations,Under the background of and appreciation for export recovery,The yuan appreciation is unlikely to significantly,March is expected the yuan against the dollar range or slightly upward pattern.

　　政策：宏观政策是否转向

policy:Whether to macroeconomic policy

　　存争论

disagreement

　　随着经济逐渐回暖和通胀风险上升，宏观经济政策是否会转向中性，引起市场争论。

As the economic recovery and rising inflation risks,Macroeconomic policy will turn to neutral,Cause the market debate.

　　丁爽认为，通胀的风险正在上升，虽然通胀水平还不至于让央行实行紧缩的货币政策，但政策态势将会逐步从偏向宽松转向中性。

Ding Shuang think,Risk of inflation is rising,Although inflation is not about to make the central bank to tighten monetary policy,But policy situation will be gradually shifted from ease to neutral.

　　鲁政委也预期政策将回归中性。他指出，在依然宽松、仍在“稳增长”的基调下，公开市场操作方向突然逆转、房地产调控政策的颁布，这与“2010年初”似曾相识的一幕，无非暗示着政策继续宽松的空间已关闭，未来的政策方向将是以多快速度、以多大力度向紧回撤的问题。

Lu zhengwei also is expected to return to neutral policy.He pointed out that,In the still loose/Is still in"Steady growth"The tone of the,Open market operation direction sudden reversal/The promulgation of the real estate regulation policy,This has to do with"At the beginning of 2010"The scene of a deja vu,Nothing suggests that policy continue to loose space has been closed,Policy direction of the future will be based on how fast the speed/How hard to tight retracement.

　　不过，丁安华表示，在总体经济状况依然偏冷，特别是外需不确定的情况下，考虑到金融系统性风险，稳增长仍是首要目标，因此财政政策将继续积极，货币政策则相对稳健，一季度内，暂时通胀问题不会导致政策基调的变化。

but,Ding Anhua said,In the overall economic situation is still rather cold,Especially under the condition of external demand uncertainty,Considering the financial systemic risk,Steady growth is the primary target,So fiscal policy will continue to actively,Monetary policy is relatively steady,Within the first quarter,Temporary problems will not lead to inflation policy changes in tone.

　　朱海斌也认为，2013年中国政府将继续采取积极的财政政策和审慎的货币政策，其中财政赤字将维持在占GDP的2%左右，结构性减税将会继续推行，并有针对性地支持服务业、中小企业以及一些新兴的行业。

Zhu Haibin also think,In 2013 the Chinese government will continue to adopt a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy,The fiscal deficit will remain at around 2% of GDP,Structural tax cuts will continue to push,And targeted support services/Small and medium-sized enterprises (smes) and some emerging industries.