罗塞夫与央行行长汤比尼在2月底同时宣称打击通胀是目前政府和央行的首要目标，结合近期巴币的升值走势以及财长曼特加声称政府将下调100多种产品的关税税率来看，政府控制通胀的意图非常坚决。从2011年下半年起开始，以保护本国工业为目的而出台的一系列保护主义政策似乎将会在通胀的压力下开始转向。

Ms rousseff and the central bank governor, soup is at the end of February and claim against inflation is now the primary target of governments and central Banks,Combined with the recent appreciation of the currency movements and finance minister guido mantega said the government will cut point of the tariff rates of more than 100 kinds of products,The intention of the government control inflation very firmly.Since the second half of 2011,Aim at protecting domestic industries by a series of protectionist policies seem to be under the pressure of inflation will be turned to.

　　通货膨胀与“大巴西计划”

Inflation and"Brazil plans"

　　从上世纪70年代开始到90年代中期，巴西经历了长达二十多年的通胀噩梦，以至于每届政府都将通胀视为头号公敌。上任总统鲁拉最为人称道的贡献之一便是成功控制了通胀。但在鲁拉政府控制通胀的同时，巴西的工业发展却停滞不前，以圣保罗工业协会(FIESP)领衔的不少业界人士称巴西的工业正在慢慢地被进口商品蚕食，去工业化迹象明显。

Since the 1970 s to mid - 90 - s,Brazil has experienced over 20 years of inflation nightmare,Every government that see inflation as public enemy number one.President lula's most celebrated contribution is one of successful control of inflation.But at the time of the lula government control inflation,Brazil's industrial development has stagnated,Industry association in Sao Paulo(FIESP)Led many in the industry say Brazil's industrial is slowly being imports eroded,Signs to industrialization.

　　2011年上任初期，罗塞夫政府延续了鲁拉政府的经济政策，持续上调基准利率，雷亚尔与美元的汇率也保持在1美金兑1.6巴币的水准。2011年“大巴西计划”出台之后，新政府一改以往将控制通胀作为首要目标的政策，推出多项改革政策，将推动巴西本地工业和经济发展放在首位。新政策中包括政府干预汇市、调整关税增加贸易壁垒、连续下调基准利率等有利本国工业却加大通胀压力的手段。

He arrived in 2011,Ms rousseff's government continued the lula government's economic policy,Last raised benchmark interest rates,Real exchange rate with the dollar also kept at 1 usd 1.6 reais.In 2011,"Brazil plans"After the,New government change in the past will control inflation as a policy priority,Launched a number of reform policies,To propel the country industry and local economic development in the first place.Including the government new policy intervention/Adjust the tariffs to increase trade barriers/Straight cut benchmark interest rates and other domestic industries are more favorable means of inflationary pressures.

　　“大巴西计划”确实给巴西本国工业的发展带来了一些益处，比如电力成本降低、劳动成本下降(社保金优惠政策)，金融成本下降(基准利息下调至历史最低的7.25%)、汇率优势(2012年巴币兑美金贬值将近30%)以及进口商品成本上涨(提高关税)。

"Brazil plans"Really brought some benefit to the development of Brazil's domestic industries,Such as the electric power cost reduction/Labor costs down(Social security preferential policies),The financial costs down(7.25% of the benchmark interest rates to record lows)/Exchange rate advantage(The currency depreciate against the dollar almost 30% in 2012)As well as the rising cost of imported goods(To raise tariffs).

　　从实际结果来看，3月1日巴西国家地理统计局(IBGE)公布的官方数据显示巴西2012年经济增长仅0.9%，通胀率则达到了5.7%左右。虽然国际经济大环境不景气和国际市场大宗商品价格的下跌对巴西的影响不可谓不大，但如果对比巴西与其它新兴经济体在2012年的表现，巴西政府的经济政策实在难言成功，更何况巴西还头顶着14年世界杯和16年奥运会的光环。

Judging from the actual result,On March 1, Brazil's national geographic statistics(IBGE)Official figures showed only 0.9% of Brazil's economic growth in 2012,Inflation rate is around 5.7%.Although the environment of international economy and international market commodity prices impact on Brazil's not is unlikely,But if compared to Brazil and other emerging economies in 2012,The Brazilian government's economic policy is hardly successful,And Brazil also head ring around 16 years to 14 years in the World Cup and Olympic Games.

　　贸易保护向通胀低头

Trade protection bow to inflation

　　在经济增长疲软的同时，2013年2月巴西12个月累计通胀已经突破了6%的大关，使得今年通胀压力大增。面对巨大的通胀压力，巴西政府的贸易保护主义也不得不低头。从2012年12月至2013年2月28日，巴币升值6.5%，这主要得益于央行再次出手干预汇市，与以往不同，此轮央行干预的目的是为了让雷亚尔升值，而非贬值。

At the same time of weak economic growth,Brazil 12 months in February 2013, the cumulative inflation is already broke through the 6% mark,Make this inflationary pressures.In the face of huge inflationary pressures,The Brazilian government protectionism also had to bow.From December 2012 to February 28, 2013,The currency appreciated by 6.5%,This is mainly thanks to the central bank to intervene again,Unlike in the past,The purpose of this round of central bank intervention is to let its currency,Rather than the value.

　　除此之外，去年十月，巴西财政部曾经上调了100多种产品的关税。2月底曼特加在纽约接受采访时声称将会下调该些产品的关税，以应对通胀压力。巴西央行行长汤比尼也在接受采访时说，央行的首要目标不是推动经济发展，而是控制通货膨胀。外界因此推测央行可能在近期上调基准利率。

In addition to this,In October last year,Brazil's finance ministry had raised tariffs on more than 100 kinds of products.Mantega, in an interview in New York at the end of 2 claims will be cut in the tariffs on some products,In response to inflationary pressures.Brazil's central bank governor, soup is also said in an interview,The central bank's primary goal is not to promote economic development,Instead of controlling inflation.The outside world so it is possible that speculation the central bank raised benchmark interest rates in the near future.

　　对于罗塞夫总统的贸易保护主义政策外界一直以来都是持褒贬不一的态度。不少人认为，一味地保护本国工业并不会真正加强巴西企业的竞争力，只会牺牲消费者的利益使巴西的企业获得更多的利润。巴西工业要发展，不能依靠贸易保护，而是需要切实解决经济发展过度依靠消费、基础建设落后、劳工成本过高、政府官僚主义、税负过高、税法过于复杂等制约其发展的问题，从根本上加强巴西制造业的竞争力。

For President rousseff's trade protectionism policy to the outside world has always been a mixed attitude.Many people think that,To protect domestic industries will not blindly truly strengthen the competitiveness of the Brazilian companies,Will sacrifice the interests of the consumers make the enterprise gain more profit in Brazil.Brazil's industrial development,Can't rely on trade protection,But need to earnestly solve excessive economic development rely on consumption/Infrastructure construction lag behind/High cost of labor/The government bureaucracy/Tax burden is too high/The tax law and other problems that limit the development of the complexity,Fundamentally strengthen the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry in Brazil.

　　推动投资成重点

Promoting investment into focus

　　2012年，对比其他新兴国家，巴西的经济增长最为疲软，有分析认为，国际经济不景气与大宗商品的价格下滑虽然对巴西的经济有一定负面影响，但真正让巴西经济停滞不前的原因是缺少储蓄和投资。

In 2012,,Compared with other emerging countries,Brazil's economic growth is the most weak,The analysis thinks,International economic recession and commodity prices, although Brazil's economy has a certain negative impact,But real let Brazil's economy stagnated because of a lack of savings and investment.

　　从最近政府的动向来看，在通过保护本国制造业来推动经济发展的政策失败之后，罗塞夫政府似乎开始将重点转向了投资，旨在通过在基础建设方面的投资来推动经济发展。而大规模的基础建设所需要的资金一部分将会由巴西国家发展银行提供，除此之外，巴西财长曼特加也将会组织多轮的境外路演，向境外投资者展示巴西的基建项目。

From the perspective of a recent government moves,Through the policy of protecting domestic industry to promote economic development after the failure,Ms rousseff's government seems to be in focus turned to investment,Through investments in infrastructure to promote economic development.Which part of the funds required to large-scale infrastructure construction will be provided by Brazil's national development bank,In addition to this,Brazilian finance minister guido mantega also will organize several rounds overseas roadshow,To show foreign investors of infrastructure projects in Brazil.

　　考虑到目前巴西政府正在四处招商引资，因此政府有可能对其保护主义政策进行调整或修正，通过较为开放的经济环境来吸引更多的外来资本。此外，在通货膨胀高企的情况下，政府也不得不对汇率以及关税进行调整，以减轻通胀的压力。如果不出现重大的国际事件，预计今年雷亚尔兑美元的汇率将会保持在1.9到2.1左右的水平。

Given the current Brazilian government investment promotion and capital introduction is around,So the government may adjust its protectionist policies or correction,Through a more open economy environment to attract more foreign capital.In addition,In the case of high inflation,The government also had to adjust the exchange rate and tariff,To alleviate the inflationary pressure.If not a major international event,Is expected this year, the real exchange rate against the us dollar will remain at the levels of about 1.9 to 2.1.

　　(本文作者介绍：毕业于巴西圣保罗大学会计系，FGV学院企业管理研究生。现任职于全球知名会计师事务所。) 

(In this paper, the author introduces:Graduated from the university of Sao Paulo, Brazil, accounting,Fundacao getulio vargas (FGV), a postgraduate student in school management.Now the global famous accounting firm.)