主要受外部需求状况回暖尤其是欧洲经济呈现改善迹象支撑，2013年1-2月，我国出口贸易快速增长，开局良好。进口增长虽然缓慢，但依然延续了去年年底温和回升的态势。总体来看，2013年我国外贸发展形势将好于上年。

Mainly by external demand recovery especially European economy showed signs of improvement,1 to 2, 2013,The rapid growth of export trade in our country,Got off to a good start.Import growth slowly,But still the continuation of a modest uptick between the end of last year.In general,In 2013 our country foreign trade development situation will be better than the previous year.

　　外贸环境依然复杂

The foreign trade environment remains complicated

　　当前，我国外贸发展面临的国内外环境依然复杂严峻，充满变数。

The current,Environment at home and abroad of China's foreign trade development is still complicated,Is full of surprises.

　　从有利因素看，其一是全球经济、贸易和投资筑底回暖态势愈加明显，外部需求状况有望得到逐步改善。外部需求依然是影响我国外贸发展的决定性因素。欧美等发达国家尽管依然面临着财政紧缩和政局不稳的压力，但一系列先行指标显示其经济触底反弹的趋势明显。2月份，美国非农就业岗位增加23.6万个，失业率为7.7%，低于1月份的7.9%，创4年来最低，美国就业形势好于预期。美国经济改善的迹象愈益明显，政府和企业信心进一步增强。我国外贸发展的外部环境将得到明显改善，尤其是出口将得到更加有力的支撑和拉动。

Look from the favorable factors,One is the global economy/Trade and investment of bottoming warming trend became apparent,External demand is expected to gradually improve.External demand is still is the decisive factor affecting the development of China's foreign trade.Europe and the United States and other developed countries are still faced with the pressure of fiscal retrenchment and instability,But a series of leading indicators suggest the trend of economic rebound.In February,236000 U.S. nonfarm jobs increased,The unemployment rate is 7.7%,Less than 7.9% in January,The lowest in four years,The United States employment situation better than expected.Signs of an improving U.S. economy become increasingly obvious,Government and business confidence.Our country foreign trade development of the external environment will be improved significantly,Especially the export will be more powerful support and pull.

　　其二是我国经济基本面保持稳定。尽管受季节性因素影响，CPI小幅上涨，规模以上企业工业增加值略有回调，但固定资产投资稳健增长，房地产投资加速回暖。今年1-2月，我国固定资产投资增长21.2%，预计随着城镇化进程的全面展开，固定资产投资有望进一步加速。总体来看，今年我国将继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，3、4月份我国经济有望出现更加明朗的复苏势头，全年宏观经济平稳运行态势基本可以确立。

Secondly, China's economic fundamentals remain stable.Although affected by seasonal factors,The CPI rose slightly,Enterprises above designated size industrial added value slightly callback,But the steady growth of investment in fixed assets,Real estate investment to accelerate recovery.1-2 months this year,China's fixed asset investment grew by 21.2%,Is expected as the urbanization process in full swing,Investment in fixed assets is expected to accelerate.In general,This year China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy,3/In April, China's economic recovery is expected to appear clearer,Macroeconomic running smoothly throughout the year basic situation can be established.

　　其三，企业生存能力和竞争力逐渐增强。经历了金融危机和后金融危机历练后生存下来的企业，积累了成功的经验，奠定了更加坚实的发展基础，其生存能力和竞争能力都得到了进一步提升。尤其是一些民营企业在专业设计、特色产品加工、国际营销等方面逐渐探索出了一些新路径。

The third,Enterprise viability and competitiveness increase gradually.Experience after the financial crisis and financial crisis after the survival of enterprises,Accumulated successful experience,Lay a more solid foundation for development,Its ability to survive and further enhance competition ability.Especially some private enterprises in the professional design/Characteristics of product processing/International marketing aspects gradually explored some new paths.

　　从不利因素看，一是欧元区经济不确定性依然存在，外需持续增长动力不足。目前欧洲经济分化态势进一步加剧。尽管德国经济活动扩张，但法国、西班牙和意大利都陷入更深的萎缩当中，欧债危机爆发的可能性并未完全消除，欧元区经济前景也因为局部地区政局不稳而依然存在较大不确定性。除欧元区外，主要发达经济体的财政、金融、就业等困境远未消除。新兴市场国家经济增长的稳定性有待进一步观察。

Look from the unfavorable factors,One is the euro zone economic uncertainties remain,External demand continues to grow out of steam.Now European economic trend intensified.Although the German economy activity,But the French/Spain and Italy deeper into contraction,The possibility of the European debt crisis has not completely eliminated,Euro zone economic outlook also because local political instability and there is still a big uncertainty.In addition to the euro zone,Finance major developed economies/The financial/Not eliminate jobs such as trouble.The stability of economic growth in emerging markets remains to be seen.

　　二是传统竞争优势弱化，新的竞争优势尚未完全形成。随着土地、资源、能源和劳动力等各类要素成本上升，我国传统的竞争优势正在弱化，然而企业在技术创新、创造和维护品牌、提升出口商品质量、完善服务体系等方面的新竞争优势尚未形成。

2 it is traditional to weaken competitive advantage,The new competitive advantage has not yet fully formed.Along with the land/resources/Energy and the rising cost of labor and other kinds of elements,China's traditional competitive advantage is weakening,However, enterprises in technological innovation/Create and maintain the brand/Improving the quality of export commodities/Perfect service system has not been a new competitive advantage.

　　三是国际竞争压力不断加大。我国受到发达国家加快“再工业化”和新兴市场国家加快发展外向型产业的双重夹击，竞争压力加大，贸易环境趋紧。

Three is the international competitive pressure increasing.By developed countries to speed up our country"And industrialization"Speed up the development of export-oriented industries and emerging market countries combined,Competitive pressures,A tighter trade environment.

　　进出口有望进一步回升

Import and export is expected to pick up

　　从未来进出口形势看，出口仍将保持良好发展态势，进口有望进一步回升。

From the situation of import and export in the future,Exports will continue to maintain good development momentum,Import is expected to pick up.

　　从先行指标看，全球制造业景气度有望继续回升。美国供应管理协会公布的美国2月份制造业PMI为54.2%，较上月上升1.1个百分点，已经连续四个月回升并创去年5月以来新高。欧元区2月份制造业PMI为47.9%，虽然处于萎缩区间，但萎缩程度是过去一年来的最低水平。外需状况将继续改善。2月份，我国的制造业PMI为50.1%，主要受季节因素影响较1月份回落0.3个百分点，但依然处于50%上方。并且随着季节性因素消失和我国经济复苏势头的进一步确立，后期制造业活动将趋于活跃，对出口的良好发展形成有力支撑。

Look from the leading indicator,The boom of global manufacturing is expected to continue to rebound.The institute for supply management reported in the United States manufacturing PMI was 54.2% in February,Up 1.1% from the previous month,Four consecutive months back and record since may last year.The eurozone manufacturing PMI was 47.9% in February,Although the contraction range,But shrinking degree is low in the past year.External demand situation will continue to improve.In February,China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%,Mainly affected by seasonal factors, fell 0.3% in January,But still above 50%.And disappear as seasonal factors, and further establishment of the country's economic recovery,The late manufacturing activity will tend to be more active,Form a strong support to exports of good development.

　　3、4月份是传统的开工旺季，随着企业去库存周期结束，新一轮补库存周期开启，进口有望进一步企稳回升。此外，随着国内经济稳定运行，我国国内的进口需求也将逐步回暖。未来，进口增速进一步提升应该可期。 

3/April is one of the traditional construction season,As companies go to end the inventory cycle,A new round of opening an inventory cycle,Imports are expected to further stabilize rebound.In addition,As the domestic economy and stable operation,China's domestic demand for imports will gradually recover.In the future,Import growth should further enhance.