为了挽救欧洲的经济和陷入债务危机困境的欧元区国家，欧盟委员会将酝酿已久的欧盟贸易防御体系修订草案正式推出，这被认为是自1995年以来首次大规模修订该体系。此次修订被指主要针对中国，不过是公开贸易保护主义的一种方式。欧盟的做法即使稳住了现在，也正以一种饮鸠止渴的方式失去长远的未来

为了挽救欧洲的经济和陷入债务危机困境的欧元区国家,The European commission will long-simmering European trade a draft amendment to the defense system was officially launched,This is considered to be the first time since 1995 large-scale revision in the system.The revision is aimed at China,But is a way to open trade protectionism.The practice of the eu even hold now,Is lost in the way a drink thirsty long-term future

　　高汉

高汉

　　欧盟此次制定的草案的关键点，也是众所诟病的，即所谓的推动贸易防御发动机制的改革。草案授权欧委会在未接到企业申诉的情况下，也可对进口产品主动开展反倾销和反补贴调查。这使得欧盟进行双反调查的程序更加简化，对其贸易伙伴的威慑性增强，有利于欧委会积极主动地出手进行更多贸易调查。分析家指出，从草案的核心内容来看，欧盟制定的相关贸易政策主要针对中国。欧盟贸易委员德古赫特称，新兴市场国家的快速发展使得发达国家损失部分出口份额，同时在劳动密集型产业中丧失了就业机会。“欧盟动态”网站载文认为，虽然草案没有明确指称中国，但主要针对中国。一位欧盟官员对媒体表示，“我们的考虑主要是基于在中国的调查经验”。此政策一出，必将严重影响到中国对欧出口业务的发展，因此，中国必须要做好充分的准备，以防贸易利益受到影响。

欧盟此次制定的草案的关键点,Also the reviled,The so-called launched promote trade defense mechanism reform.Draft of authorization by the commission in the enterprise has been complaint cases,Can also be used to actively conduct anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into imports.This makes the double inverse investigation procedures are more simplified,Stronger deterrent for its trading partners,Is conducive to the commission actively to make more trade investigation.Analysts pointed out that,From the perspective of the core content of the draft,The eu set of related trade policy is aimed at China.The eu trade commissioner, Mr DE gucht said,The rapid development of emerging market countries to developed countries loss of export quotas,At the same time lost their jobs in labor-intensive industries."The dynamic"Site, think of those,Although the draft no clear reference to China,But mainly aimed at China.An eu official told reporters,"We consider is mainly based on the research experience in China".This policy a,Will seriously affect the development of China's exports to Europe business,so,China must be well prepared,In case of trade interests are affected.

　　欧盟之所以出台贸易防御体系改革，主要是为了挽救处于危机中的欧洲经济和愈演愈烈的债务危机。2012年第三季度和第四季度，欧盟27国GDP环比第二季度仅增长0.1%，欧元区环比则下降了0.1%。出口对欧盟GDP的贡献不断降低，再加上内需的不足，2012年欧盟整体经济出现0.4%下滑。目前，欧盟经济环境仍然低迷，企业和消费者信心没有好转，整体投资也开始滑坡。更为严重的是，欧盟的失业率居高不下，截至2012年11月，欧盟失业率高达11.8%，有的国家甚至高达25%，并且，2013年失业还有加重的趋势。开始于2008年的欧债危机，从希腊到爱尔兰，再到西班牙、葡萄牙、意大利，直到最近的塞浦路斯，似乎有一种蔓延的趋势，尽管欧盟进行了大量的援助，但由于根本制度的缺陷，债务危机并没有好转的迹象。

欧盟之所以出台贸易防御体系改革,Mainly in order to save in crisis economy and the deepening debt crisis in Europe.In the third quarter of 2012 and the fourth quarter,The European Union's 27 countries GDP rose only 0.1% in the second quarter,The euro zone fell by 0.1% month-on-month.Exports to the eu's contribution to GDP decrease,Coupled with the lack of domestic demand,In 2012 the eu economy as a whole fell 0.4%.At present,The European economy remains sluggish,Business and consumer confidence is not better,Overall investment began to decline.More seriously,The eu's high unemployment,As of November 2012,The unemployment rate is as high as 11.8% in the European Union,Some countries are as high as 25%,and,2013 unemployed and worsen trend.The European debt crisis began in 2008,From Greece to Ireland,Again to Spain/Portugal/Italy,Until recently the Cyprus,There seems to be a trend of spreading,Although the eu has carried on the large amounts of aid,But due to the defects of basic system,The debt crisis and no signs of improvement.

　　为了应对这场危机，欧盟采取了保守主义的做法，开始限制贸易自由，进行公开的贸易保护主义，但这种解决问题的方式是对症下药吗?从下面的分析可以看出并非如此。

为了应对这场危机,The European Union adopted a conservative approach,Began to restrict free trade,Make public of trade protectionism,But the way of solving problems is to suit the remedy to the case?Can be seen from the analysis below is not the case.

　　欧盟成立已经20多年了，欧元也诞生了14年之久，为什么本来想要形成竞争优势的欧盟和欧元没能达到应有的目的，反而陷入经济危机的泥沼无法自拔，却只能靠早已被抛弃的贸易保护主义手段来挽救经济呢?究其根源，就在于欧元区本身制度设计的缺陷和经济竞争力的下降。

欧盟成立已经20多年了,The euro also gave birth to 14 years,Why was going to form the competitive advantage of the eu and the euro failed to achieve the purpose of due,The economic crisis has run into the morass of laze,But only have abandoned trade protectionism means to save the economy?Investigate the root cause,Defects of the system design is that the euro zone itself down and economic competitiveness.

　　欧元区制度设计的先天性缺陷是导致欧洲陷入经济困境的重要根源。虽然自欧元诞生之日起就一直有人怀疑其可行性，美国前总统克林顿对欧元的诞生发表演说时，就表达过谨慎欢迎的意思。甚至有美国的经济学家断言欧元最多只能存在五十年，因为它根本不能满足蒙代尔单一货币区的前提条件。尽管当时的欧洲国家并不这么认为，但开始于希腊的主权债务危机清晰地向人们展示了欧元区的缺陷:欧元区单一货币与成员国独立自主的财政政策相矛盾。这就使得欧元区内任何一个国家在发生危机时无法通过货币贬值来解决危机。于是，他们解决危机的唯一路径就是通过扩大财政开支拉动经济增长，这样又会进一步加大债务危机的风险，从而有进入一轮新的债务危机恶性循环的可能性，最终会拖垮所有的成员国。既然欧洲国家希望通过单一货币区的整合来提升欧元区在世界经济版图中的竞争力和影响力，希望达到“一荣俱荣”的效果，那么，它就必须承担“一损俱损”的风险。

欧元区制度设计的先天性缺陷是导致欧洲陷入经济困境的重要根源.Although since the emergence of the euro has been some doubt its feasibility,Former US President Bill Clinton during a speech. The birth of the euro,It expressed a cautious welcome.In the United States and even the most economists assert that the euro is only fifty years,Because it can't satisfy the mundell of the single currency condition.Although European countries at that time don't think so,But began in Greece's sovereign debt crisis to show clearly the defect of the euro zone, the euro zone single currency independent fiscal policy conflicts with the member states.This makes any one country within the euro area in the event of a crisis to resolve the crisis through currency depreciation.so,They solve the crisis is the only path by expanding fiscal spending boost economic growth,This will further increase the risk of a debt crisis,By entering into a new vicious cycle of debt crisis,Will eventually bring down all of the member states.Since European countries hope that through the integration of the single currency to boost the euro zone's competitiveness and influence in the world economic landscape,Hope to achieve"A glorious all glory"The effect of,then,It will have to bear"mine"The risk of.

　　这种风险体现在，没有统一的财政政策安排的欧元区各国，从中央到地方都有一种扩大财政赤字的冲动。因为债务危机最终的解决方式不能通过货币政策来解决，只能通过向这些国家的政府提供流动性来解决，并且，这对于发生债务危机的国家来说并没有什么损失，因此很容易引发国家道德风险。欧洲财长们在过去几年里批准了总额高达数千亿欧元的纾困方案，帮助深陷主权债务危机的希腊等国家暂时避免了迫在眉睫的债务危机。但正如德国总理默克尔指出的，如此代价高昂的救助计划，仅仅是为解决欧元区的根本问题换取了一点时间而已。

这种风险体现在,There is no uniform fiscal policy arrangements of eurozone countries,From central to local levels have a widening fiscal deficit.Because of the debt crisis in the end of the solution could not be addressed by monetary policy,Only through to provide liquidity to solve the governments of these countries,and,It is not for the debt crisis in the country what loss,So it is easy to cause national moral hazard.European finance ministers in the past few years total approved up to hundreds of billions of euros of the package,帮助深陷主权债务危机的希腊, etc.国家暂时避免了迫在眉睫的债务危机.But, as German chancellor Angela merkel said,Such a costly bailout,Is just to solve the fundamental problems in the euro area in exchange for a little time.

　　更为麻烦的是，欧元区在设计上没有原则清晰并可操作的退出机制。比如，希腊出现债务危机，在不能有效救助，尤其是不能自救的情况下，允许其退出，等到以后条件成熟时，再重新加入。但欧元区的设计所展现的是满足条件后的加入，却没有不符合条件后的退出。这既是制度设计的缺陷，也是欧盟制度不自信的表现，因为欧洲国家担心一国退出后的“多米诺”效应。

更为麻烦的是,The eurozone on the design principle is clear and workable exit mechanism.Such as the,The Greek debt crisis,In can't effective relief,Especially will not save his life,Allowing them to quit,, etc.到以后条件成熟时,To join again.But the euro zone's design show is meet the conditions after joining,No is not in conformity with the conditions after exit.This is a defect of the institutional design,And thus the system is not confident in the performance,Because European countries worry that a country's exit"A domino"Effect of.

　　毫无疑问，导致欧洲出现危机的另一个主要原因是其在全球竞争力的下降。由于欧盟成员国多实行高福利，导致劳动力成本居高不下，再加上技术创新不足，欧洲产品在面对新兴国家的竞争时，没有太多的优势，从而导致欧盟相关产业增长乏力，失业倒闭现象增加。

毫无疑问,Another main cause of the crisis in Europe is the decline in global competitiveness.As members of the European Union more generous welfare,Lead to high labor costs,Coupled with the lack of technological innovation,Products in the face of competition from emerging countries in Europe,Don't have much advantage,Leading to the European Union related industry growth,Collapse phenomenon increase unemployment.

　　从上述分析可以看出，欧洲困局的根源不在于他国对欧洲出口形成的竞争，而在于其制度设计的缺陷和经济竞争力的缺失。因此，欧洲要解决的是如何让自己的制度设计得更加完美和提升经济的竞争能力，而不是进行贸易保护!难怪欧盟贸易防御体系修订草案遭到来自欧盟内外的批评。欧洲议会欧洲人民党党团国际贸易发言人丹尼尔指出，“欧盟需要足够的杠杆应对倾销价格的进口，而不是放弃自由贸易的目标。全球自由贸易必须继续成为欧盟的优先”。

从上述分析可以看出,The root of Europe's woes lies not in the other countries' exports to Europe to form the competition,But in the system design flaw and the lack of economic competitiveness.so,Europe to solve is how to make system design more perfect and improve the economic competitiveness,Not in the trade protection!No wonder the eu's trade defence system revision draft by criticism from inside and outside the eu.The European parliament, a spokesman for the international trade of the European people's party group Daniel pointed out,"The eu needs to import enough leverage against dumping price,Rather than give up free trade target.The global free trade must continue to be the eu's preferred".

　　由于该防御体系草案可能首要是针对中国，因此也给我国外贸政策和经济发展战略提了个醒。在外贸上，不能依赖于单一的市场，一定要市场多元化；在经济发展上不能只依赖于外需，而真正要靠发展内需才能长期稳定。

由于该防御体系草案可能首要是针对中国,Therefore also gave our country foreign trade policy and economic development strategy.In the foreign trade,Can't rely on a single market,Must be market diversification;On the economic development not only depends on external demand,And really want to rely on domestic demand can long-term stable development.

　　无论欧盟这一政策的出台是针对谁，但有一点可以肯定的是，任何过度的保护都是保护落后，人类经济发展史的规律已经告诉我们，贸易的自由化是无法对抗的潮流，无论欧盟的政策草案是多么地严厉!

无论欧盟这一政策的出台是针对谁,But one thing for sure,Any excessive protection is to protect the backward,The law of the human economic development history has told us,Trade liberalization is not against the tide,No matter how tough and draft eu policy!

　　如果欧盟没能对症下药，即使稳住了现在，是不是以一种饮鸠止渴的方式失去了长远的未来呢?

如果欧盟没能对症下药,Even if hold now,Is lost in the form of a kind of drink thirsty long-term future?