春节过后，人民币升值再次出现加快迹象。其背后的推手之一，是以跨境套利为目的的虚假贸易。

春节过后,The appreciation of the renminbi signs appear again to speed up.One of the driving force behind it,Cross-border arbitrage is false for the purpose of trade.

　　跨境套利往往并不需要动用大笔海外资金，其套利主体也并不一定是海外的投机大鳄。比如，内地企业利用广东、深圳毗邻香港的地理优势，可以低成本地在内地与香港之间频繁进行进出口操作。为了规避进口关税，这种操作可以通过保税区完成。即货物由内地保税区出口至香港，再从香港进口回保税区。这样完成一个进出口的流程，时间短的一日可进行多次，时间长的也只需要一两天。假如外贸企业出口收汇后在内地结汇，进口付汇时在香港购汇，那么境内市场因进出口形成的外汇供给就不是顺差额，而是全部的出口额，这必然增大人民币升值压力。同时，由于结售汇顺差远大于贸易顺差，从而给舆论造成外资涌入的错觉。

跨境套利往往并不需要动用大笔海外资金,The arbitrage body also is not necessarily a big alligator of speculation abroad.Such as the,Mainland companies use of guangdong/Shenzhen adjacent to Hong Kong's geographical advantage,Can frequently between mainland and Hong Kong at low cost for import and export operation.In order to avoid import tariffs,This operation can be done through free trade zone.The goods from the mainland exports to Hong Kong bonded area,Imports from Hong Kong back to bonded area.Such a complete import and export processes,Time is short for many times a day,Also only need one or two days longer.If foreign trade enterprises to export proceeds in the mainland after the settlement of exchange,When import payment of foreign exchanges in Hong Kong,So the domestic market supply of foreign exchange is not formed by the import and export surplus,But all exports,This will increase the RMB appreciation pressure.At the same time,Due to the written guarantee surplus is greater than the trade surplus,Thus to cause public opinion into the illusion of foreign investment.

　　企业这样做，当然是有利可图。举例而言：若境内美元对人民币即期价格为6.20，香港市场美元对人民币即期价格为6.18，境内企业出口1亿美元货物至香港的关联公司，将所得美元在境内结汇，可获得6.2亿人民币，再将同一批货物由香港进口回保税区，此时借助跨境人民币结算的便利条件，只需向香港支付6.18亿人民币，于是货物的一进一出企业可获取200万人民币的套利收入，而境内市场则凭空增加1亿美元的外汇供给。

企业这样做,Of course is profitable.For instance,:If the spot price of 6.20 $within the territory of RMB,Spot prices of 6.18 Hong Kong dollars and RMB,Domestic enterprises exported $100 million of goods to Hong Kong's affiliates,Will the dollar in the settlement of exchange,May obtain 620 million yuan,Then with a batch of goods imported from Hong Kong back to the bonded area,At this point by means of cross-border renminbi settlement,Only need to pay 618 million yuan in Hong Kong,And the goods into a enterprise can get arbitrage income 2 million yuan,While the domestic market increased $100 million in foreign exchange supply out of thin air.

　　制约企业套利收入的主要有三个因素，一个是境内外汇差的大小，二是作为套利“马甲”的货物运输成本，三是货物本身的价值。

制约企业套利收入的主要有三个因素,One is the size of the domestic and overseas rate,The second is as arbitrage"Ma3 jia3"The goods transport costs,Three is the value of the goods itself.

　　境内外汇差是企业无法掌控的，为尽可能扩大套利收益，充当“马甲”的货物一般需要满足两个条件，一是体积小，以节约仓储运输成本；二是价值高（或者是价值不容易确定），以使较小的汇差带来较高的套利收入。很明显，纺织品、玩具等商品不符合上述要求，而单位价值高的黄金、珠宝和价值不容易准确评估的电子元器件就很容易成为套利交易的“马甲”。

境内外汇差是企业无法掌控的,To expand the arbitrage profit as much as possible,Act as a"Ma3 jia3"Goods generally need to satisfy the two conditions,A small volume,To save storage and transportation costs;2 it is high value(Or the value is not easy to determine),To make smaller rate leads to higher arbitrage income.clearly,textiles/Toys goods do not meet above requirement,And high unit value of gold/Jewelry and the value is not easy to accurately assess the electronic components is easy to become a carry trade"Ma3 jia3".

　　假设运输成本为零，企业完成一次内地与香港之间的进出口循环需要2天时间，一年时间企业可以轻松完成100次上述交易，赚取2亿元人民币的利润，同时境内市场凭空增加100亿美元的外汇供给。

假设运输成本为零,Complete a between mainland and Hong Kong import and export cycle need two days time,100 times a years time enterprise can easily complete the transaction,To earn profits of RMB 200 million,At the same time increase $10 billion of foreign exchange supply domestic market out of thin air.

　　在上述案例之中，假设企业用来充当马甲的货物实际成本并非1亿美元，实际上只有5000万美元（一般而言“马甲”的价值都被高估），按照6.2的境内汇率折算人民币3.1亿元。假设企业在境内可以拿到的1年期理财产品的收益率为4.5%，那么这批货物所占用的资金成本就是1395万元。从2亿元的全年套利利润中扣除掉1395万的资金成本，企业仍可获得1.8605亿元的利润，其暴利可见一斑。

在上述案例之中,Assumptions used to act as a ma3 jia3 goods actual cost is not 100 million dollars,In fact only $50 million(In general"Ma3 jia3"The value of is overvalued),According to the exchange rates of RMB 310 million in 6.2.Suppose firms in China can get 1 year financial product yield is 4.5%,So this batch of goods consumed by the cost of capital is 13.95 million yuan.Full-year arbitrage profit is deducted from $200 million, 13.95 million cost of capital,Companies can still obtain 186.05 million yuan of profits,Its profits.

　　不难看出，在上述虚假贸易操作中，巨额获利的是企业自己，但我国实体经济未获得真实的拉动，带来的只是外贸规模的虚增与人民币升值压力的加剧，海关和央行都成了无辜的受害者。需要指出的是，上述套利操作中，所有的进出口单据都是合法的，不存在法律风险。企业只需要在香港设立一家公司，或者找到一家香港合作企业就可以完成上述操作。也正是这种合法性与高收益，导致其很容易恶化商业竞争环境，诱惑更多正常经营的企业参与到这种“合法快钱”的盛宴中来。

不难看出,In the false trade operations,Huge profit is the enterprise itself,But China's real economy didn't get the real drive,Only brought by the foreign trade scale of inflated with the RMB appreciation pressure,Customs and central Banks were innocent victims.It should be pointed out that,The arbitrage operation,All of the import and export documents are legitimate,There is no legal risk.Enterprises only need to set up a company in Hong Kong,Or find a Hong Kong cooperation company can do this.It was also the legitimacy and high yield,Lead to the worsening business competitive environment easily,Temptation more enterprises to participate in the normal operation"Legal quick"The feast of the to.

　　此外，一旦人民币贬值预期泛起，人民币境外价格低于境内，企业只需反向操作，就可以大量套取外汇流向境外，从而加剧市场波动。

In addition,Once the depreciation expectations,The price is lower than the domestic overseas,Enterprises need to reverse operation,Can be a lot of arbitrage foreign exchange flow to the outside,Adding to market volatility.

　　外管局日前发布《国家外汇管理局关于加强外汇资金流入管理有关问题的通知》，明确提出要加强对进出口企业货物贸易外汇收支的管理，说明上述跨境套利已经引起监管层重视，但对其进行有效约束还需商务部、人民银行、海关等多部门协调配合，虽然完全禁绝不太可能，但也应尽可能降低其对国内经济秩序的干扰。（

外管局日前发布[The state administration of foreign exchange on strengthening capital inflows of foreign exchange management related issues notice],Clearly put forward to strengthen the management of import and export enterprise goods trade foreign exchange receipts and payments,Illustrate the cross-border arbitrage has attracted regulatory attention,But the effective constraint is subject to the ministry of commerce/The people's bank of China/Customs department coordination,Although completely banning is unlikely,But also should as far as possible reduce the disturbance to the domestic economic order.(