行业运行情况

行业运行情况

　　3月空调总销量增速6.5%,出口好于内销。销量增长三个原因:一是新兴国家订单增速较快;二是12年下半年房地产销售较好提供了部分增量需求,三是节能补贴政策到期是否延续不确定,终端渠道加大促销力度。

3月空调总销量增速6.5%,Export sale in domestic market.Sales growth for three reasons: one is the rapid growth in emerging countries order;2 it is 12 years second half of the real estate sales better in part by the incremental demand,Three is energy-saving subsidies expire whether continued uncertainty,Terminal channels to increase promotional efforts.

　　3月冰箱销量同比增16%,其中内销增速18%,内销数据大幅增长的原因有两个:一是1月底家电下乡政策退出前经销商加大了对家电下乡产品的清理力度,之后有一个补货的过程;二是经销商为了应对冰箱传统销售旺季的到来加大了备货的力度。

3月冰箱销量同比增16%,Including domestic sales growth of 18%,Surge in domestic sales data for two reasons: one is the end of January, electrical home appliances to the countryside policy exit before the dealers we intensified the efforts on cleaning of home appliances to the countryside products,After have a replenishment process;Second, dealers in response to the fridge, traditionally the busiest selling season coming more efforts to the stock.

　　3月洗衣机销量同比微增2.5%(其中内销同比增8.5%,出口出同比下滑7.5%)。产品升级在国内市场表现的较为突出,滚筒洗衣机的内销占比较去年同期提升了1.2个百分点,内销增速较波轮高出4个百分点。

3月洗衣机销量同比微增2.5%(Including domestic sales increased 8.5% year-on-year,Exports fell 7.5%).Upgrade products in the domestic market's outstanding performance,Platen washing machine domestic sales accounted for comparison in the same period last year increased by 1.2%,Domestic sales growth is 4% higher than that of BoLun.

　　3月彩电总销量与去年持平,内销(增30%)和出口(降17%)表现迥异。

3月彩电总销量与去年持平,Sale in domestic market(Increased by 30%)And export(Drop 17%)Different performance.

　　市场表现回顾

市场表现回顾

　　自4月11日至5月9日,家用电器行业指数上涨2.28%,同期沪深300上涨1.71%,行业继续跑赢市场,位居23个申万一级行业涨跌幅第12位。四个细分子板块中,小家电和白电涨幅较大。

自4月11日至5月9日,Household electrical appliance industry index was up 2.28%,Over the same period the csi 300 is up 1.71%,Industry continue to outperform the market,Among 23 price 12 in all level of industry.The four small molecule plate,Small appliances and white goods or larger.

　　投资策略

投资策略

　　从出货数据来看,一季度空冰洗和彩电内销均现正增长,洗衣机和彩电出口出现下滑。从内外销市场环境来看,12年下半年和13年上半年房地产旺销为今年国内家电提供了部分增量需求。出口方面,广交会显示出外需尚未根本性改善,出口数据的回暖尚不稳固;新兴市场需求较为强劲,欧洲下滑的较为严重,新订单增长低迷。受终端消费能力的影响,国外采购商下单较为谨慎,订单呈现中短单占比居高(6个月以内的中短单占比83.7%)、长单缺乏的特点。预计今年出口微幅增长,内销增长是行业主要动力。进入二季度原材料价格下滑幅度有所扩大,可以为行业盈利能力贡献空间。我们维持行业的“看好”评级。

从出货数据来看,Quarter empty ice washing and color TV is now growing,Washing machines and color TV export decline.From the point to sell market environment,12 years second half of the year, and 13 years in the first half of the real estate best-selling in domestic home appliance provides the incremental demand this year.Export side,Canton fair show external demand has not been fundamentally improved,Export data recovery is not solid;Emerging market demand is relatively strong,Europe's decline is more serious,New orders growth downturn.Influenced by the terminal consumption ability,Foreign customers order more carefully,Order to present short list of high(Within 6 months of short single accounted for 83.7%)/Long list of features.Expected export growth slightly this year,Domestic sales growth is a major power industry.Into the raw material prices in the second quarter of decline has widened,Can contribute to industry profitability.We maintain the industry"Bullish on"The rating.

　　个股方面建议关注海信科龙(公司现经营拐点,管理层对经营投入力度加大,下半年股权激励第一期行权价7.65元,股价具有一定的支撑)、海信电器(公司基本面良好,受乐视短期冲击股价回调后显现投资机会)、小天鹅A(战略调整后收入恢复性增长,一季度销售费用率波动较大,渠道变革完成后,存在较强的业绩改善预期)。

个股方面建议关注海信科龙(Company is now turning point,Management for business investment,In the second half of the first phase of the equity incentive price 7.65 yuan,Share prices have a certain support)/Hisense electric appliance(Good company fundamentals,Is impacted by the music depending on the short-term price appeared after the callback investment opportunities)/Little swan A(Strategic adjusted income grows,In the first quarter sales rate fluctuates greatly,After the completion of the channel change,There is strong performance improvement is expected).