海关总署5月8日公布的数据显示4月份,我国进出口总值2.23万亿元人民币(折合3559.6亿美元),扣除汇率因素,增长15.7%,增幅较上月扩大3.7个百分点。其中出口1.17万亿元人民币(折合1870.6亿美元),增长14.7%,增幅较上月扩大4.7%;进口1.06万亿元人民币(折合1689亿美元),增长16.8%,增幅比上月扩大2.7%;贸易顺差1145.3亿元人民币(折合181.6亿美元),与去年同期相比,为负增长,同比为-2.11%。

The general administration of customs on May 8, according to data released in April,China's import and export gross 2.23 trillion yuan(Us $355.96 billion),Excluding currency factors,Growth of 15.7%,3.7% increase from the previous month to expand.Which exports 1.17 trillion yuan(Us $187.06 billion),Growth of 14.7%,4.7% increase from the previous month to expand;Import is 1.06 trillion yuan RMB(Us $168.9 billion),Growth of 16.8%,Increase 2.7% than last month to expand;Trade surplus of 114.53 billion RMB yuan(Us $18.16 billion),Compared with the same period last year,A negative,Compared with the 2.11%.

　　4月份贸易数据继续好于市场预期,这可能与基数效应和贸易数据虚高的成分在里面有关。去年4月份的出口值为1631.29亿美元,进口值为1445.76亿美元,进、出口值都处于低位,使得今年4月份进、出口同比增幅扩大。贸易数据虚高可以从外贸货物吞吐量的同比增速和进出口增速相佐来看。1-3月份,外贸货物吞吐量的同比增速分别为9.6%、8.9%、7.0%,呈现一个下降的趋势;进出口总额的同比增速1-4月份分别为26.85%、1.03%、12.03%、15.7%,除去1月份因为是春节前的特殊月份外(1月份进出口数据会受到放春节的刺激,进出口额增加),进出口总额的增速是向上的趋势。正常的贸易情况下,外贸货物吞吐量走势应与进出口额走势相一致,可是却是呈现一个向下一个向上的相背离的情况。这说明,外贸数据异常。这有可能与人民币持续升值,热钱通过贸易渠道流进国内套利致使外贸数据虚高。还有说明外贸数据虚高的一个佐证是PMI新出口订单指数,除了3月份上升到临界点之上,今年以来的其余三个月都位于临界点之下,这说明我国的外贸情况并不像数据所表现那么美好。尽管4月份的进出口数据表现暂时不错,可以缓解市场对于经济形势的担忧,但这一好的数据表现会随着外管局出台的外汇资金管理及综合头寸新规范(中国国家外汇管理局5月5日发布通知称,外汇贷存比超过参考贷存比的各中、外资银行,应在每月初的10个工作日内将综合头寸调整至下限以上)的实行而受到影响。新规重在打击套利资金流入,严查虚增外贸出口,这样有可能会使虚高的贸易数据有所下降,出口数据有望随之在下月下降。

April trade data continue to better than market expectations,This may be related to artificially high base effect and the trade data of ingredients in it.In April last year exports of $163.129 billion,But imports to $144.576 billion,Into the/Value is low,Made in April this year/Expand exports year-on-year growth.Trade data can be artificially high from the cargo throughput of year-on-year growth of foreign trade and import and export growth phase with view.1-3 months,Foreign trade cargo throughput, respectively, year-on-year growth of 9.6%/8.9%/7.0%,Present a downward trend;Of the total amount of import and export of 1-26.85% in April year-on-year growth/1.03%/12.03%/15.7%,Before Spring Festival special month is January because outside(Import and export data will be put the Spring Festival in January,Imports and exports increase),Of the total amount of import and export growth is upward trend.Normal trade cases,Foreign trade cargo throughput trends should be consistent with the import and export trend,But it is present a next upward phase deviation.This shows that,Abnormal data of foreign trade.This may have with the continued appreciation in the yuan,Hot money flows through trade channels into the artificially high domestic arbitrage in foreign trade data.Artificially high and explain foreign trade data of a case in point is the PMI's new export orders index,In addition to march up to above the critical point,Since this year the rest of the three months are below the threshold,This shows that our country foreign trade situation is not so good as data showed.Although temporary import and export data of April performance is good,Can ease the market's worries about the economic situation,But it is a good data will be issued with the safe management of foreign exchange funds and general position the new specifications(China's state administration of foreign exchange on May 5, issued a notice said,Foreign exchange loan-to-deposit ratio more than reference the loan-to-deposit ratio/Foreign Banks,Should be at the beginning of each month within ten working days of the general position adjustment to the floor above)The implementation of the.New rules on arbitrage capital inflows,Scrutiny inflated export,This is likely to be inflated trade data,Export data could then fall the next month.

　　分出口的产品结构来看,机电产品出口较快增长,传统劳动密集型产品出口增势显著。前4个月,我国机电产品出口增长17.6%,占出口总值的58.5%。服装、纺织品、鞋类、家具、塑料制品、箱包、玩具这传统的7大类劳动密集型产品合计出口增长19.6%,占出口总值的19.1%。但高新技术产品的出口增速却只有27.7%,相较历史上的30-50%的增速,有所下降。随着欧美国家的再工业化战略,以及人民币汇率升值的影响,企业应该努力向科技含量高和技术研发能力强的产业方面转型。

Points export product structure,Mechanical and electrical products export growth faster,Traditional labor-intensive products export growth significantly.The first four months,The mechanical and electrical products export growth of 17.6% in our country,About 58.5% of the total cost of the export.clothing/textiles/The footwear/furniture/Plastic products/bags/Toys that combined the traditional seven categories of labor-intensive products export growth of 19.6%,About 19.1% of the total cost of the export.But new high-tech product export growth was only 27.7%,Compared with the 30-50% growth in its history,Has fallen.As the industrialization strategy of the European and American countries,And the impact of RMB exchange rate appreciation,Enterprises should strive to to a high content of science and technology and the industry transformation of technology research and development ability is strong.