由于存在很多不确定、不稳定的因素，近期世界经济的增长有可能进一步减速。而欧债危机又进一步蔓延。6月份，欧元区制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)仅为45.1，远低于50这一荣枯分水岭，显示欧元区经济将继续温和衰退。美国经济仍处于缓慢和不稳定的复苏中，由于内生增长乏力、出口不振、就业没有显著改善，失业率近两个月又回升至8.2%。政府刺激经济的手段几乎用尽。6月份美国制造业PMI降至49.7，重回50以下。业界普遍预计二、三季度美国经济增长将进一步放缓。日本经济仍然受外部市场需求低迷及地震后电力短缺等问题困扰，日元坚挺和财税制度调整也令日本经济短期难有明显起色。

Since there are many not sure、Unstable factors，The recent growth of the world economy could further slowing down。And the debt crisis and further spread。June，The eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers' index(PMI)Of just 45.1，Far below 50 this RongKu watershed，Showed that the eurozone economy will continue to a mild recession。The U.S. economy is still in the slow and not stable recovering，Because the endogenous growth weakness、Export of、Employment no significant improvement，Unemployment almost two months and back up to 8.2%。The government to stimulate the economy means almost exhausted。In June, the United States manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7，Back under 50。The general consensus is that the industry、Three quarters of the American economy growth will slow further。Japan's economy still affected by external market demand slump and earthquake power shortages and problems，The yen strong fiscal and taxation systems and adjust the economy in the short term to Japan also to have a clear improvement。

　　新兴经济体和发展中国家经济仍保持较快增长，但受国际市场大宗商品价格疲软和资金流出的影响，近一时期以来增长速度普遍放缓，未来增长能否持续还不确定。国际货币基金组织(IMF)在4月份《世界经济展望》报告中，曾预计2012年全球经济增长3.5%，高于1月份报告预计的3.3%。据报道，鉴于当前一些新的变化，IMF近日将下调对全球经济增长的预计值。

Emerging economies and developing countries in economy is still maintained a fast growth，But by international market commodity prices and a weak capital outflows，Almost a period growth slowdown in general，Future growth can consistently is uncertain。The international monetary fund(IMF)In April《World economic outlook》report，Had been expected to global economic growth in 2012 to 3.5%，Higher than the 3.3% of the report is expected in January。According to the report，In view of the current some new changes，IMF recently will cut on global economic growth expected value。

　　受经济减速预期和主要市场需求疲弱的影响，2012年世界贸易的增长呈现明显放缓态势。大宗商品市场价格近期一直走低或者在低位徘徊。进口商普遍调减库存，缩小和缩短订单，跨国公司纷纷调低生产计划。除少数商品外，大部分工业制成品贸易都遭遇了需求疲弱问题。有研究者认为全球经济已经濒临通货紧缩，因此国际贸易量和贸易额增长进一步回落甚至下滑的可能性都在增加。近几个月与中国贸易结构类似或关联度较高的东亚主要经济体进出口增长都表现出回落态势。未来围绕争夺市场的竞争将更加激烈，各种各样的贸易保护主义，尤其是针对中国的贸易摩擦将进一步加剧。

By the economic slowdown and the main market demand expected the influence of the weak，2012 world trade growth slowing trend evident。Commodity market prices have been falling recently or remained at the low。The importer to reduce inventory generally，Narrow and shorten the order，Multinational companies to lower production plan。Except a few goods outside，Most manufactured goods trade were encountered problems sluggish demand。Researchers think that the global economy is on the verge of deflation，So the international trade and trade growth fell back even further the prospect of falling is increasing。In the past few months and China trade structure similar or relational grade higher import and export growth in the major economies of east Asia are showing back situation。The future for market competition will be around more fierce，All kinds of trade protectionism，Especially for China's trade friction will further intensified。