美国中西部产区严重干旱，国际市场玉米价格将在较长时间内维持高位。受进口成本上涨的支撑，国内玉米价格也将进一步提升。

The Midwest region severe drought，The international market corn prices will be in a long time to maintain high。Subject to import rising costs to support，Domestic corn prices have further will ascend。

　　今年在旱情的持续影响下，全美有78%的玉米和77%的大豆作物受到影响，国际农产品价格也因此出现持续大涨的行情。美国玉米价格从6月15日528美分/蒲式耳暴涨到7月23日的808美分/蒲式耳，在短短5周多的时间里，涨幅高达52％。受此影响，国内大部分地区玉米价格也出现跟涨态势。

In this year of drought continued influence，The 78% of the corn and soybean crops 77% of affected，International agricultural prices and therefore a continued rise in prices。The United States from corn prices on June 15, 528 cents per bushel jumped to July 23, 808 cents per bushel，In just five weeks of much time，Rose as high as 52%。Affected by this，The most areas corn prices have to rise situation there。

　　美国干旱严重，玉米减产成定局 

The severe drought，The corn underproduction entrenched 

　　由于中西部玉米产区遭受到56年以来最严重的旱情，美国农业部已经将玉米生长状况优良率数据大幅下调到26%，远低于去年同期的62%。更为严重的是，伊利诺伊等4个州的优良率水平均低于7％，而这4个州玉米播种面积占全国总面积的比例高达28.3％。

Due to the Midwest corn production to 56 years suffered the worst drought since，The United States department of agriculture has corn growth condition was data slashed from 26% to，Far below 62% in the same period last year。More seriously，Four states Illinois was the level of less than 7%，And the four states corn is accounted for 28.3% of the total area。

　　不仅单产受损，玉米品质也受到较大影响。一些农场主已经开始提前收割玉米等作物，当作利润微薄的动物饲料出售。国际投行高盛集团将美国2012/2013年度玉米单产水平下调至126蒲式耳/英亩，并进一步上调玉米价格预估到9美元/蒲式耳以上。虽然美国中西部玉米产区的降雨量开始增加，但目前已经是7月下旬，决定作物单产规模最关键的授粉阶段大多已经结束。这意味着，即使后期这些地区再出现有利降雨，前期干旱对玉米产量的损害也基本上无法挽回了。美国农业部将在8月10日公布最新一期的月度供需报告，确认新季玉米产量的预估数值。一旦下调幅度超过市场预期，玉米价格将迎来新一轮的大涨行情。

Yield not only damaged，Maize quality also influence。Some farmers have begun to harvest the corn and other crops in advance，As a small profit animal feed to sell。Goldman sachs group, the international investment Banks will be 2012/2013 annual corn yield level the United States cut to 126 m/acres，And to further raise corn prices estimated to nine dollars a bushel above。Although the Midwest corn production of rain began to increase，But is now in late July，Crop yield the most critical decision scale of pollination stage mostly has ended。This means that，Even if the area late again favorable rainfall，The drought on corn yield of damage can't be undone basically。The United States department of agriculture is on August 10, according to the latest issue of the monthly report of supply and demand，Confirm new season maize yield the estimated value。Once the declines of more than market expectations，Corn prices have surged to a new round of the market。

　　成本走高，玉米进口数量将减少 

Costs go up，Corn import quantity will decrease 

　　由于美国玉米价格上涨，国内进口美国玉米的成本也随之走高，目前的进口成本已经达到2900元/吨，远高于南方港口2600元/吨的价格。后期美国玉米进口成本可能进一步走高，将削弱国内需求企业采购美国玉米的热情。同时，虽然上半年我国进口玉米240.54万吨， 同比增长逾65倍，但由于进口成本已经远高于国内买家当初的购买成本，所以，后期国内买家采取不实际进口，而是通过将玉米船货返售给美国供应商的方式兑现高额利润的情况可能会不断出现。最新数据显示，美国上周玉米出口销售净减14.04万吨。美国向中国出口的本年度玉米尚未装船的数量还剩 95.10 万吨，2012/2013年度的玉米共110.13 万吨。总的来看，国内下半年的玉米进口量明显减少。

Because of the United States corn prices，Domestic U.S. corn import costs also then go up，At present the cost of imports has reached 2900 yuan/ton，Southern ports is far higher than 2600 yuan/ton price。Later U.S. corn import costs could rise further，Domestic demand will weaken the enterprises purchase U.S. corn enthusiasm。At the same time，Although the country import corn 2.4054 million tons， Year-on-year growth of more than 65 times，But because the cost of imports has much higher than domestic buyers at the beginning of the purchase cost，so，Later not to the actual import domestic buyers，But through the shipment of resale maize to the suppliers to the way high profits may appear constantly。The latest statistics show，The United States last week corn export sales net minus 140400 tons。The United States to China's export this year the number of corn had not yet shipped with 95.10 Ten thousand tons，2012/2013 of the corn of 110.13 Ten thousand tons。In general，In the second half of the domestic corn imports significantly less。

　　生猪市场低迷，玉米上涨幅度受限 

Pig market downturn，Corn rises limited 

　　当前正值夏季肉制品消费淡季，国内猪市持续低迷。上海、广东等地品种毛猪批发价已跌至7元/斤，加上饲料成本居高不下，饲养业亏损扩大。上周初，猪粮比价已降至5.38：1，跌破了5月中旬的低点，这使得市场的补栏情绪更趋谨慎。同时，仔猪价格也不断走低。由于新增仔猪消化困难，华东不少省市外三元仔猪批发价已跌至11—12元/斤的水平，再创年内新低。如果后期养殖利润继续下滑，养殖规模将进一步萎缩，进而对整个玉米饲料消费产生负面影响，玉米价格上涨幅度将受到限制。

The current when summer meat consumption off-season，Domestic pig city remain low。Shanghai、Guangdong MaoZhu varieties wholesale price has fallen to $7 / jins，With high feed costs，Husbandry losses。Early last week，The pig food parity has fallen to 5.38：1，Dipped below mid-may low，This makes the market for more emotionally cautious column。At the same time，Piglets, the price also currencies。New digestive difficulties due to the piglets，East China many provinces and cities three yuan piglets the wholesale price had fallen to 11-12 yuan/kg level，Hit new low years。If later profits continue to slide breeding，Breeding scale will shrink further，And then the whole corn feed consumption negative effects，Corn prices will be limited。

　　美国中西部产区严重干旱，国际市场玉米价格将在较长时间内维持高位。受进口成本大幅上涨支撑，国内玉米价格也将水涨船高，但具体涨幅视国内下游消费恢复情况而定。操作上建议投资者跟随上涨趋势，逐步建立适量多单。

The Midwest region severe drought，The international market corn prices will be in a long time to maintain high。Subject to import costs rise sharply support，Domestic corn prices will also be rising，But the specific or depending on the domestic downstream consumer recovery and decide。The operation advised investors to follow the upward trend，Gradually establish a right amount。