海关总署将于8月10日公布相应数据，7月份进出口数据到底是多少？今年下半年的外贸形势会呈现怎样的趋势？全年的10%的增长目标又能否实现呢？这些都是市场普遍比较关心的问题，对此，市场也早有预测，综合看来，机构普遍认为7月进口规模将有所反弹，出口则持稳略降。

The general administration of customs on August 10, will be announced the corresponding data，In July, import and export data exactly is how much？In the second half of the year show how foreign trade situation the trend？10% of the annual growth targets and can be realized？These are the market is more concern，this，The market also early forecasts，Comprehensive look，Agencies generally thought of July import scale to rebound，Exports have steady slightly drop。

　　对于即将公布的7月份进出口数据，交通银行(601328,股吧)金融研究中心首席经济学家连平预计，7月进口规模将比6月有所反弹，规模可能在1600亿美元左右，出口规模可能在1900亿美元左右，增长8.4%，持稳略降。

To be published in July of import and export data，Traffic bank(601328,Shares it)Financial research center's chief economist is expected to even flat，July import scale than June will bounce，Scale may at about $160 billion，Export scale may at about $190 billion，8.4% increase，Steady slightly down。

　　长江证券(000783,股吧)研究所近日发布的一个报告显示，出口方面来说，美国经济复苏的历程依然艰辛，最新公布的美国二季度经济不容乐观，特别是主导的消费下降明显，创下自2011年二季度以来最小增幅。而欧元区债务问题虽有进展，但明显还存不确定性，实体经济、金融市场的去杠杆进程都还在继续，并将持续。国内需求环比短期内有所改善，基建复工对于原材料需求将有所回升，但受制天气炎热夏天并非传统旺季。综合以上，7月出口增速预计为8.0%，进口则为10.3%。

Yangtze river securities(000783,Shares it)Institute of) recently released a report，Export ways，The United States economic recovery process is still hard，The latest in the second quarter of the United States economy is not optimistic，Especially the consumption of the leading down significantly，Since 2011, a second quarter growth since the minimum。And the eurozone debt problem though progress，But obviously still save the uncertainty，Entity economy、Financial market to lever process continues，And will last for。Domestic demand in the short term annulus improved，Infrastructure for raw materials will return to work have rebounded，But did the hot weather is not traditional summer peak season。Comprehensive above，July is expected to export growth to 8.0%，Import 10.3%。

　　东方证券认为，进口和出口额的环比增速具有明显季节性特征，假设7月出口和进口环比增速跟过去12年的均值持平，7月出口和进口增速分别为8%和9%。

Orient securities think，Import and export growth of annulus has obvious seasonal characteristics，Hypothesis July export and import growth annulus comparing with the past 12 years of mean flat，July export and import growth was 8% and 9% respectively。

　　国海证券(000750,股吧)则认为，虽然国际形势仍是波澜不断，但预计美国延续缓慢复苏态势，而欧债危机发生大风险概率较小，但考虑到欧元区或继续在衰退边缘挣扎。因此，预计出口维持在10%左右的增速，不过总体上保持稳中略小幅回升态势。进口方面，则预计随着国内政策力度加大需求逐渐改善，进口增速有望逐渐回升。

GuoHai securities(000750,Shares it)Argue that，Although the international situation is still is surging constantly，But the U.S. is expected to continue slow recovery situation，And the debt crisis risk small probability，But considering the euro zone or continue to struggle in the edge of a recession。so，Is expected to remain at 10% or so of export growth，But on the whole maintained steady slightly rebounded slightly trend。Import side，As domestic policy efforts is expected to increase demand gradually improved，Import growth is expected to pick up gradually。

　　该报告还显示，在出口保持平稳态势下，预计未来仍将保持200亿左右每月的贸易差额，今年全年的贸易顺差比去年略高，但对人民币汇率压力并不大。人民币汇率预计保持平稳，相比上半年小幅贬值态势，下半年或将呈现小幅升值。

The report also shows，In the export maintain stable under the situation，The expected future will still keep around 20 billion monthly trade balance，The whole year's trade surplus slightly higher than last year，But the pressure on the currency is not big。The exchange rate of the yuan is expected to remain stable，In the first half dollar small compared to the situation，The second half will present or modest rise。

　　针对7月份新出口订单指数下降0.9个百分点至46.6%，中金公司首席经济学家彭文生表示，如果欧债危机不进一步恶化，预计3、4季度进出口增速将有所回稳。总需求的疲弱开始向劳动力市场传递。7月份从业人员指数下降0.2个百分点至49.5%，延续前两月的下降趋势并且连续两个月处于收缩区间，反映了之前总需求持续走低的滞后反应。

According to new export orders in July index lost 0.9% to 46.6%，Cicc chief economist PengWenSheng said，If Europe debt crisis not further deterioration，3 is expected to、Import and export growth will have four quarter rose。The total demand weak labor market began to transfer。In July, employees index lost 0.2% to 49.5%，Last two months before the downward trend and two consecutive months contraction in the interval，Reflects the total demand before falling lag reaction。

　　连平认为，未来国际经济增长短期内难以明显好转，市场仍将持续低迷，国内出口企业经营成本上升，出口困难难以根本改观，未来整体出口增速可能仅维持在10%左右。

Even flat think，Future international economic growth in the short term to improved obviously，The market downturn will continue，Domestic export enterprise operating costs rise，Difficult to export to fundamental change，The whole future export growth may be running at only 10%。

　　商务部研究院对外贸易研究所所长李健则认为，下半年世界经济不会有根本起色，外需仍然呈现疲弱态势，贸易保护主义将有增无减。国内通货膨胀和人民币升值压力虽有减轻，但是订单不足和成本趋升仍是外贸企业面临的突出问题。国内投资和消费增长可能企稳回升，有利于扩大进口和促进进出口继续趋于平衡。在这样的背景下，总体上看，下半年外贸增长速度不会有显著大幅回升，全年实现10%的增长目标仍有一定难度。外贸顺差有可能继续扩大，但是不会突破一个比较合理的范围。

The ministry of commerce research institute of institute of foreign trade LiJianZe think，The second half of the world economy will not have a fundamental improvement，Weak economy is on a trend，Trade protectionism will grow。Domestic inflation and the appreciation of the renminbi though relieve pressure，But a shortage of orders and cost trend rise is still foreign trade enterprise with the problems。Domestic investment and consumption growth may be stabilising picks up，To expand import and promote the import and export to continue in equilibrium。In this context，On the whole，The second half of the foreign trade growth not be a significant rise sharply，Annual growth target of 10% realize still has the certain difficulty。The trade surplus is likely to continue to expand，But would not break through a more reasonable range。