据媒体报道，联合国粮食农组织日前发出了警告说，如果说一些国家因担心受旱影响粮价可能上涨而限制出口，世界可能会引发一次类似2007年至2008年的粮食危机。

According to media reports，The United Nations food and agriculture organization has issued a warning said，If some countries due to worry about food prices are likely to rise from influence and restrict exports，The world could trigger a similar 2007 to the food crisis of 2008。

　　美国农业部日前在预期产量报告中指出，受持续干旱和高温影响，美国主要农作物今年预期产量将低于去年10%以上，其中玉米总产量将触及2006年以来的最低水平。联合国粮农组织认为，美国、俄罗斯、加拿大等世界粮食的主产国持续释放粮食不安全信号，引发全球粮食价格乃至肉制品波动。联合国的粮食组织发出的警告，需要引起方方面面的重视。

The United States department of agriculture has in the expected output report，The continuous drought and high temperature influence，The United States, the main food crop production will be lower than expected this year more than 10% last year，The corn output will touch the lowest level since 2006。The United Nations food and agricultural organization says，The United States、Russia、Canada and so on world food mainly produced countries continued release food insecurity, signal，Trigger a global food prices and meat fluctuation。The United Nations food and agriculture organization of the warning，Need to cause the attention of all aspects。

　　干旱推高粮价

Drought push up food prices

　　大豆、玉米、小麦涨幅达30-50%

soybean、corn、Wheat or up to 30-50%

　　联合国粮农组织经济学家Abdolreza Abbassian说，主要粮食价格7月份都出现了大幅上涨，未来还可能进一步上涨，因为美国旱情还在加剧、印度雨季降水也比往年偏少，俄罗斯也遇到了平均温度明显高于往年的夏季，这些因素都可能推动粮食价格进一步走高。

The United Nations food and agricultural organization Abdolreza economists Abbassian said，The main food prices have appeared in July rise considerably，The future may also rise further，Because the United States has increased the drought、Indian monsoon precipitation than usual partial less，Russia also met the average temperature significantly higher than last year's summer，All of these factors may be driving food prices rise further。

　　包括美国、俄罗斯等在内的多个产粮大国，因严重旱情已出现粮食产量大跌，从而导致了粮价新一轮的飙升。自今年6月以来，玉米、大豆和小麦价格的涨幅已达30%至50%。其中，玉米价格已创下历史新高，超过2007年至2008年全球粮食危机时的水平。

Including the United States、Russia and so on, a number of major grain-producing country，Because of the serious drought in food production has plunged，Thus led to a new round of soaring food prices。Since this year since June，corn、Soybean and wheat prices are up 30% to 50%。the，Corn prices hit a record high，More than 2007 years to 2008 years the global food crisis level。

　　联合国粮农组织报告说，7月份主要粮食价格与去年相比平均上涨了6%，创2009年11月份以来的最大升幅。这一衡量食品出口价格的指数目前较2011年2月份触及的纪录高点低10%。

The United Nations food and agriculture organization (fao) report says，The main food prices in July average compared with last year rose 6%，And in November 2009 the biggest rise since。The measure of food export price index is a February 2011 reached record highs low 10%。

　　本周四(8月9日)玉米(2432,6.00,0.25%)、小麦(2512,26.00,1.05%)以及大豆(4684,12.00,0.26%)期货上涨，预示食品价格存在进一步上涨的风险。玉米期货涨1%，自美国开始干旱前的5月31日以来已累计上涨47%，大豆价格9日上涨4%，自5月31日以来已累计上涨26%。考虑到玉米和大豆都是生产饲料的主要原料，这两种商品价格大涨势必会推动禽蛋和肉类价格上涨。

This week four(On August 9,)corn(2432,6.00,0.25%)、wheat(2512,26.00,1.05%)And soybean(4684,12.00,0.26%)Futures rose，Indicates there food prices further rising risk。Corn futures rose 1%，Since the United States began before the drought on May 31, has risen 47% since，Soybean prices 9 rose 4%，Since May 31, has risen 26% since。Considering the corn and soy is the main raw material production of feed，These two kinds of commodity prices rose will promote the eggs and meat prices。

　　花旗集团商品战略家斯特林?史密斯指出，全球玉米、大豆的供应都会出现紧张，其中大豆的情况可能需要两个生长周期才能恢复，预计大豆价格将以强劲势头进入下年。高盛公司、麦格理集团、瑞士信贷也都预计农产品的价格涨势将持续下去。

Citigroup commodity strategist Stirling?Smith pointed out that，Global corn、Soybean supply will appear nervous，The soybean situation may need two growth cycle to recover，Soybean is expected to price will be strong momentum into next year。Goldman sachs、Macquarie group、Credit suisse are also expected to agricultural product price increases will continue。

　　粮农组织在月度指数更新报告中称，该组织食品价格指数7月平均为213点，较6月上涨12点，并回到今年4月水平。该指数篮子纳入了谷类、油籽、乳制品、肉类和糖。粮农组织称，7月指数仍低于2011年2月的纪录高位238点，但已经接近2007-2008年粮食危机期间的水平。

Food and agriculture organization (fao) in the monthly index update said in a report，The organization food price index July an average of 213 points，A rise in June 12 o 'clock，And back in April this year level。The index of the grain into the basket、oilseeds、Dairy products、Meat and sugar。Food and agriculture organization says，July index is still less than in February 2011 to a record high of 238 points，But already close to 2007-2008 during the food crisis level。

　　限制出口政策

Restricted from export policy

　　或导致08年粮食危机重演

Or lead to 08 food crisis repeats itself

　　2007-2008年粮食价格飙升曾引发世界性粮食危机，食品价格暴涨在一些发展中中国和低收入国家引发了骚乱并导致数个国家政府倒台。联合国粮农组织经济学家Abdolreza Abbassian表示，目前的情况还没有严重到那个地步，但是如果一些粮食大国因为减产而限制或禁止出口则可能引发价格飙升。他警告说，未来几个月世界粮价可能出现大幅波动。

In 2007-2008 food prices has caused the world food crisis，Food prices in some developing China and low-income countries sparked riots and lead to a number of national government overthrow。The United Nations food and agricultural organization Abdolreza economists Abbassian said，The present situation is not serious to that point，But if some food powers for production and export is restricted or prohibited may trigger price soared。He warned，The next few months the world food prices may appear fluctuations。

　　为了应对粮价飙升的危局，据英国《金融时报》报道，G20和联合国负责农业事务的高级官员将在9月下旬或者10月上旬举行一次会议，协调各国对粮价高企的应对，防止出现粮食出口限制和囤积等政策。

In order to deal with the crisis of food prices，According to the British《Financial times》reports，G20 and the United Nations agricultural affairs responsible for senior officials will be in late September or early October hold a meeting，Coordinate all countries to cope with food prices high，Prevent food export restrictions and hoarding policies。

　　据新华社援引G20一名官员的话说：“会议旨在确保每个与会人员就当下形势形成一致观点，当然，试图压制任何将夸大市场波动的政策。”

According to xinhua news agency quotes G20 a official as saying：“The aim of the meeting was to ensure that every the researchers present situation consensus view form，Of course，Trying to suppress any will exaggerate market fluctuation policy。”

　　所谓“夸大市场波动”，按联合国粮食和农业组织(FAO)资深经济学家兼谷物分析师阿巴辛(Abdolreza Abbassian)的理解，就是2007年到2008年间各国采取的粮食出口限制令。阿巴辛说，如果眼下仍采取此类政策干预市场，可能会重蹈当年的覆辙。

The so-called“Exaggerated market fluctuation”，According to the United Nations food and agriculture organization(fao)Senior economist and grain analysts BaXin o(Abdolreza Abbassian)understanding，Is 2007 to 2008 countries take food export restriction order。BaXin said, o，If at present is still to take such policy intervention in the market，May repeat mistakes of the year。

　　反思生物燃料政策

Reflect on biofuels policies

　　在加大关注的同时，各方也试图尽量不给外界造成紧张气氛。据报道，G20的官员们强调，计划举行的会议并不是表明各界对粮价上涨感到“恐慌”。恰恰相反，官员们表示，此次会议是为了吸取几年前粮食危机的教训，未雨绸缪，防止出现出口限制和囤积居奇等可能增加粮价上涨压力的现象。

In the increasing concern at the same time，The parties also tried to try not to external cause the tension。According to the report，G20 officials stressed，Plan meeting and not show that rising food prices from all walks of life to feel“panic”。On the contrary，Officials say，The meeting is to draw on lessons of the crisis of food a few years ago，Save for a rainy day，Prevent export restrictions and hoarding and speculation, etc may increase the phenomenon of pressure rising food prices。

　　另据透露，在这次G20特别会议上，联合国很可能借机呼吁展开有关生物燃料政策的国际讨论，特别是要求美国、欧洲以及其它国家废除由政府指定的生物燃料生产目标。上周，联合国已对美方鼓励甚至是强制用玉米提炼乙醇的做法提出了批评。

According to another revealed，In the G20 special meeting，The United Nations is calling for expansion may be looking about biofuels international policy discussion，Especially for the United States、Europe and other countries by the government abolished the specified biofuel production target。Last week，The United Nations has to the United States encourage even forced corn ethanol practice puts forward criticism。

　　在上周五公布的最新农作物产量报告中,美国农业部称,今年该国主要农作物的产量将低于去年10%以上。该机构连续第二个月削减玉米和大豆产量预估,玉米产量预估降至六年最低,下降幅度达到13%。大豆的预估年产量也比去年下降了12%。

In Friday's latest crop yields in the report,The United States department of agriculture says,This year, the country's main crop yields will be lower than 10% last year。The agency for the second consecutive month cut corn and soybean yield prediction,Maize yield prediction drop to the lowest six years,The decline range 13%。Soybean estimated annual output is 12% lower than last year。

　　旱情恶化，是影响美国农产品产量和价格的最大原因。上周美国又有１２个州的４４个县被确定为自然灾害的主要受灾区，大豆、玉米等作物的优良率也继续下降。

Drought deterioration，Is to influence the American agricultural product output and price of the biggest reason。In the United States last week and have 12 state 44 county was identified as a major disaster area of natural disasters，soybean、Corn crop was also continue to fall。

　　目前国内粮食市场运行平稳

At present domestic grain market stable operation

　　与国际粮价大幅上涨不同，近两个多月来，中国国内粮食市场运行平稳。我国政府对粮食生产高度重视、夏粮获“九连丰”、粮食库存充裕等是粮食市场表现稳健的主要因素。但也有一些局部状况引人关注。比如，近日吉林省农安县发生比较严重的二代粘虫灾害，对当地的玉米等作物收成带来较大威胁。

With the international food prices rise considerably different，Nearly two months，China's domestic grain market stable operation。The Chinese government on food production attaches great importance to、The summer crops won“Nine even abundance”、Food inventory is abundant food market performance steady main factors。But there are some local condition remarkable。For example，Recently NongAnXian jilin province occurred serious second generation armyworm disasters，To local corn crop bring bigger threat。

　　背景

background

　　美国遭遇56年来最严重干旱

The United States encounter 56 years ago the most severe drought

　　美国南部和东南部平原大部分地区在2011年就遭遇了较为严重的干旱天气，导致该地区产出减少，抛荒率上升。今年入夏后，干旱天气持续蔓延和恶化，并不断向整个农业带扩散，随之演变成56年来美国最严重的旱灾。

The southern part of the United States and southeast plain most regions in 2011 had a serious drought weather，In the area to reduce output，Desertation rate rise。RuXia this year after，Dry weather continues to spread across and deterioration，And to keep the whole agricultural belt diffusion，Then evolved into 56 years America's most severe drought。

　　根据美国干旱减缓中心的数据，美国本土已有三分之二的区域遭遇了中度以上旱灾，为历史最高水平。美国农业部日前再次追加受灾地区，至此美国共有33个州的1496个县受灾区。

According to the American drought slow center data，The United States has two thirds of the region suffered a moderate drought above，For the historical highest level。The United States department of agriculture has once again additional affected areas，So far the United States there are 33 state 1496 counties disaster area。

　　实际上，从历史气象数据来看，每隔15年至20年，美国都会发生一场范围较大的干旱灾害，上一次是在1988年。受暖冬影响，美国农民今年比以往提前实施了耕种，结果干旱来袭正值玉米、大豆、小麦等农作物的生长关键期，威胁了它们的收成。

In fact，From the historical meteorological data to see，Every 15 years to 20 years，The United States will happen a larger range of drought disaster，The last time was in 1988。Mild winter influence by，Farmers in the United States than ever this year in advance the implementation of farming，Results the drought hit when corn、soybean、Wheat crops such as the growth of the critical period，Threatened their harvest。

　　截至8月5日，美国预期收成为“非常差”和“差”的大豆作物比重上升至39%，超过1988年的受灾程度，玉米作物的这一比重上升到50%，牧草的比重增至59%。

As of August 5,，The United States is expected to become the“Very bad”and“difference”Soybean crop weight increased to 39%，More than 1988 years of the affected degree，Corn crop this weight increased to 50%，The proportion of grass to 59%。