市场研究机构Markit最新公布的数据显示，7月份欧元区制造业采购经理人指数PMI从6月的45.1降到了44，创下3年以来的最低水平，几乎所有欧元区成员国的PMI指数都低于50的荣枯分界线，德国7月制造业PMI指数终值亦下修至43，法国7月制造业PMI指数终值则下修至43.4。

Market research institutions Markit latest figures show，In July the eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers' index PMI from June 45.1 dropped to 44，3 years in its lowest level since，Almost all the eurozone members of the PMI index are less than 50 vicissitude demarcation line，Germany July manufacturing PMI index final value also next fix to 43，France on July manufacturing PMI index final value under the repair to 43.4。

　　近几个月来，随着宽松政策逐渐生效，我国经济运行中有一些积极的信号出现，例如7月份中国官方采购者经理指数PMI为50.1，继续维持在50的枯荣分界线之上，显示中国制造业仍在缓慢扩张；同时，从库存情况来看，产成品库存大幅下滑了4.3个百分点，而原材料库存则出现了0.3个百分点的轻微反弹，这或许预示着企业的去库存正在进入尾声；此外，7月份CPI同比涨幅进一步回落至1.8%，这为未来货币政策运用打开了更大的空间。

In recent months，Along with the loose policy gradually come into effect，In the operation of China's economy has some positive signal appear，For example in July China's official buyers manager PMI index was 50.1，Continue to maintain in the 50's vicissitudes above line，Display the Chinese manufacturing industry is still in the slow expansion；At the same time，From the stock situation，Manufactured inventory fell sharply by 4.3%，And raw material inventory have 0.3% of the mild rebound，This may indicate the enterprise to inventory is come to an end；In addition，July year-on-year CPI rise further dropped to 1.8%，This for future monetary policy using opened more space。

　　但必须要看到的是，外部经济持续低迷对我国经济增长的负面影响仍在持续，并有进一步加剧的迹象。7月份，我国的进出口增长急剧减速，其中出口1769.4亿美元，同比增长1%；进口1517.9亿美元，同比增长4.7%。虽然5月份PMI新出口订单指数明显下滑，以及5月以来G3国家经济数据疲软已经预示着我国7月出口可能下滑，但如此剧烈的减速依然超出市场预期。

But must want to see is，External sustained economic downturn on the economic growth in China is still in the negative effects of continuous，And further aggravate the signs。In July，China's import and export growth sharp reduction，The export of $176.94 billion，Year-on-year growth of 1%；Imported 151.79 billion us dollars，Year-on-year growth of 4.7%。Although may PMI new export orders index decline significantly，Since may and G3 national economic data suggest that the weak in July may be slowing down exports，But so drastically slow still exceed market expectations。

　　在造成7月份出口增速大幅下滑的原因中，对美国和欧盟出口的不景气无疑是关键因素。7月份，我国对欧盟和美国的出口增速分别为-16.2%和0.6%，分别比6月份减少了15.1和10个百分点。而根据数据，欧元区制造业正在进一步恶化，或有可能令欧元区陷入更为严重的经济衰退，并继续拖累美国经济增长，这对我国未来的出口而言，绝不是一个好消息。同时，由于出口在GDP中的占比仍达到30%，而且多是劳动密集型行业，如果出口持续放缓，我国的就业市场可能面临更为严峻的挑战。

In July, caused a sharp slowdown in export growth in the reason，For the United States and the European Union export downturn undoubtedly is the key factor。In July，Our country to the European Union and the United States export growth - 16.2% and 0.6% respectively，In June, respectively, compared with the reduced 15.1 and 10%。According to data，The eurozone manufacturing is worsening，Or may make the euro zone into a more serious economic recession，And continue to drag down the U.S. economy growth，The China's future for exports，Never is a good news。At the same time，Due to the export in GDP accounted for more than 30% still，And more is labor-intensive industry，If export continued slowdown，China's employment market may be faced with more severe challenges。

　　为了应对这一挑战，决策层应该会继续出台更多宽松政策，但不可否认的是，未来在政策的使用上也面临着桎梏。例如在货币政策方面，虽然随着物价同比涨幅的下降，降息空间确实存在，但一方面降息对于改善出口环境并无太大帮助；另一方面，随着贷款利率的下行，近期房地产价格又出现了蠢蠢欲动的迹象，这也是决策层需要平衡的方面。

In order to deal with the challenge，Executives should continue to more to come loose policy，But it is undeniable，In the future the use of policy is faced with shackles。For example, in monetary policy，Although year-on-year increase as prices fall，Cut space exists，But on the one hand to cut interest rates to improve the export environment and without too much help；On the other hand，With mortgage rates down，The recent real estate prices again appeared signs of move，This is also need to balance aspects of decision-making。

　　相对而言，通过出口退税等财政手段补贴出口商，是短期内较为可行的方法。不过，我国出口产品往往处于供应链的低端，整体议价能力偏弱，出口退税后海外买方存在压价的可能，出口商真正的收益程度仍存在不确定性。同时，从7月份财政收支情况看，当月财政收入增速环比下滑1.6个百分点，而财政支出则大增19.4个百分点，虽然我国目前的财政情况依旧良好，积极的财政政策仍有发力空间，但这一升一降或许也显示财政补贴需要更有针对性。

relatively，Through the export tax rebates, and other fiscal subsidies exporters，In the short term is a feasible method。but，Our export products supply chain often in the low end，The overall weak bargaining power，After the tax reimbursement for export overseas buyer may demand exists，Exporters real income level is still uncertain。At the same time，From July at a financial revenue and expenditure，The fiscal revenue growth chain fell 1.6%，And the fiscal expenditure is soar 19.4%，Although our country's current financial situation is still good，The proactive fiscal policy still has hair force space，But the rise a drop may also display financial subsidies need more specific。

　　因此，笔者认为，短期来看，应扶持出口企业以维护就业市场和经济增长的稳定，但从长期来看，鼓励出口企业重视技术改造和品牌创新，加快转型升级，提升我国企业在全球价值链生产体系中的地位，改变我国以外向型经济为主的经济结构，才能使我国经济更有效地抵御来自欧元区经济下滑带来的冲击。

therefore，The author thinks that，Short term，Should support the export enterprises in order to maintain employment market and the stability of the economic growth，But in the long run，Encourage the export enterprises pay attention to technological transformation and brand innovation，Accelerate the transformation and upgrading of，Ascension of China's enterprises in the global value chain the status of production system，Change in our country mainly export-oriented economy of the economic structure，To make China's economy more effectively resist from the euro area the impact of the economic downturn。